DAY 2 - Cheltenham Festival

SteveM

SteveM

At the Start
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2010 Cheltenham Festival

DAY 2 March 17, 2010


Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f
A good race for those prominent in the betting. 6yos have the best recent record although a 5yo won last year. Rite Of Passage and Finian’s Rainbow look to hold very strong chances. Peddlers Cross is still unbeaten and could be anything. Reve De Sivola is fancied by yard to run a big race.

Shortlist:
Quel Esprit 6
Coole River 6
Quantitative Easing 5
Tell Massini 6 ? (see AB)
Rite Of Passage 6
Royal Charm 5
Reve De Sivola 5
Restless Harry 6
Finian’s Rainbow 7
Peddlers Cross 5
Summit Meeting 5

Selections: 1) Rite Of Passage 2) Finian’sRainbow 3) Quel Esprit/Peddlers Cross
4) Quantitative Easing/ Reve De Sivola



Royal & SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f
7yos and 8yos for this. Prominently ridden horses. Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types. Long Run looks a danger to his stablemate Punchestowns, if his jumping stands up to the Cheltenham test. He looks seriously talented but his age is also against him in what is a gruelling race. Punchestowns is the selection (worries of lameness aside), with Weapon’s Amnesty the place choice.

Shortlist:
Punchestowns 7
Long Run 5
Pandorama 7 ?
Weapon’s Amnesty 7
Diamond Harry 7
Bensalem 7 ?
Knockara Beau 7
Burton Port 6
The Nightingale 7 ?

Selections: 1) Punchestowns 2) Long Run/Weapon’s Amnesty 3) Diamond Harry
4) The Nightingale

QM Champion Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they tend to have exposed form. Concentrate on those rated 160+. Vast Majority of past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. The last 11 Arkle winners that have taken part in this in the following season have been at least placed. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to run well. Kalahari King (runner-up in last year’s Arkle) looks the each-way value here.

Master Minded 7
Twist Magic 8
Kalahari King 9
Big Zeb 9
Petit Robin 7

Selection: 1) Master Minded 2) Kalahari King e.w. 3) Twist Magic


Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (5yo+) 2m 5f
Beshabar 8 ?
Quantitative Easing 5
Spirit River 5

Selection: 1) Quantitative Easing 2) Beshabar

FWKM Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 3m ½f

Champion Bumper 2m ½f
5yos have advantage. Irish specialise in this, particularly Mullins.

Elegant Concorde 5
Hidden Universe 4
Shot From The Hip 6
Day Of A Lifetime 5
Tavern Times 6
Up Ou That 5
 
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Hi Steve

a pity u have omitted the hcaps which are always hard to solve

Neptune u have omitted a mention of summuit meeting who should improve for the dryer ground and the fact weld does not have an outstanding record at the festival his last winner being rare bob in 1995 maybe he does not have a lot of runners

henderson has a poor record in 20/21f races at the festival and 5 yr olds have a poor record in the coral cup not good omens for quantitiveeasing

I think Nolan may regret changing noble prince to the county hurdle
 
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Thanks for your input Prince. My head's full to bursting. I'm leaving the handicaps to those cleverer than me. I'll have a bet in those if something jumps out but I'm choosing my races and keeping my powder dry.

I've got a good ante-post platform this year which should protect my downside. Time to get serious now and go for the jugular and the upside!
 
This is the day for me this year. I have surely solved the RSA with positions on Long Run and Punchestowns at 6s and 13/2 respectively and i've gone in quite heavy on Reve De Sivola in the Baring Bingham. Kalahari King and James De Vassy are my support bets for the day. It's rare I get involved in so many races on one day so i'll be having kittens by noon no doubt.
 
...is it ever otherwise. If you're not having kittens at the Festival you're doing something wrong.
 
I seldom have kittens.

The Grand National, maybe, but it's a big family party day and the pressure's on me to find the winner.

I'll probably be a wee bit edgy at the Champion Hurdle as I've got nearly as much on CH as I did on Rooster Booster (but I've got far bigger prices CH).

Beyond that, it doesn't get to me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I seldom have kittens.

The Grand National, maybe, but it's a big family party day and the pressure's on me to find the winner.

I'll probably be a wee bit edgy at the Champion Hurdle as I've got nearly as much on CH as I did on Rooster Booster (but I've got far bigger prices CH).

Beyond that, it doesn't get to me.
Click to expand...

...you're not staking enough! :p
 
What with Quel Esprit now being a very, very short price, and the ground looking like it will ride as genuine good ground, I think Rite of Passage is enormous at 7/2. The ground, and the effect it could have on him getting the trip, was my main worry. Quel Esprit needs 3m+ if the ground turns up good.
 
Hamm said:
What with Quel Esprit now being a very, very short price, and the ground looking like it will ride as genuine good ground, I think Rite of Passage is enormous at 7/2. The ground, and the effect it could have on him getting the trip, was my main worry. Quel Esprit needs 3m+ if the ground turns up good.
Click to expand...

They're pretty bullish about QE
 
I agree with those who admire Quel Esprit, but I'd also agree with Hamm in that it'll take an extraordinary effort to displace RoP.
 
I think it is a race to oppose both,
they dont have the form on the book and are too short


Peddlers Cross and Summit Meeting look much better for me.
 
Don't know that RoP dosn't have the form sunny. I've been very impressed with his form and he's one of the highest rated going into the race.
 
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sunybay said:
I think it is a race to oppose both,
they dont have the form on the book and are too short


Peddlers Cross and Summit Meeting look much better for me.
Click to expand...

I like those two as well. Geraghty clearly thinks the world of Finians Rainbow as well.
 
Not having a go at all Aragorn, but pre-Cheltenham everyone (jockey, trainer etc) massively fancies nearly all horses in every race prominent in the betting. I was shocked to see Geraghty's comments myself what with his other rides but you can't back them all.

Rite of Passage win at 4.2 or bigger and QE to place (if the going description has the word soft in it) at 2.5 or bigger.
 
Looking at Quel Esprit the only thing that made me think he needed three miles was his last defeat - prior to that I would have wanted him to go for this race. Reports are he has been working the house down prior to travelling.
 
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