Do They Know What They Talk About?

[barjon]

Beat The Bat improved on the form of his narrow Ascot win without being good enough to beat the favourite, who had the advantage of a 7lb mares' allowance. He was fine back in trip on this stiffer track and finished clear of the third home.

I’m always reading this sort of thing and with weight for age allowance. I thought the idea was to make them equal, not to bestow an advantage. It’s trainers as well as race reporters and commentators who come out with it, so is it the implication that the allowances are unfairly biased in favour of the recipients, or what?

 

[Euronymous]

IMO it's only an advantage when the WFA is wrong or maybe excessive. I don't get why male vs female the allowance is the same no matter what the conditions so 7lbs is the amount for a two mile hurdle and a three mile+ chase. I don't agree with that. You also had Blood Destiny getting a ridiculous age allowance in a Beginners the other day. It's a nuanced argument but you don't get that with punditry.

 

[Desert Orchid]

IMO it's only an advantage when the WFA is wrong or maybe excessive. I don't get why male vs female the allowance is the same no matter what the conditions so 7lbs is the amount for a two mile hurdle and a three mile+ chase.

This is something the BHA needs to come out and explain.

They're quick to tell us there's masses of computer data behind a lot of their stuff so if that's the case here they should be telling us. If there are data that show no difference depending on hurdles or fences or two miles and three miles then let them say so.

At the same time, they've already set precedents with the Flat allowance set at 5lbs and, if memory serves, it wasn't always 5lbs.

5lbs is almost a length and a half at 5f but five lengths at 2m2f so perhaps the allowances should be on a sliding scale since it would appear to be more generous at the longer trip. Then again, perhaps it requires the same physical effort to put almost a length and a half between two horses at five furlongs as it does five lengths at the Ces trip.

It'shard to know but empirical data would help.

 

[reet hard]

Imo, the importance of weight is an overblown factor in many races and rarely has the influence of pace,distance,class, track and going on the end result.
Ipso facto, much the same applies to handicaps and ratings,though a number of pundits apply it as a major influence when skimming over a race.

 

[barjon]

Imo, the importance of weight is an overblown factor in many races and rarely has the influence of pace,distance,class, track and going on the end result.
Ipso facto, much the same applies to handicaps and ratings,though a number of pundits apply it as a major influence when skimming over a race.

Poor old Admiral Rous, you’ve just destroyed the whole concept of handicapping in one breath

 

[reet hard]

Admral Rous has stood the test of time - much better than any of his detractors will.

 

[walsworth]

Imo, the importance of weight is an overblown factor in many races and rarely has the influence of pace,distance,class, track and going on the end result.
Ipso facto, much the same applies to handicaps and ratings,though a number of pundits apply it as a major influence when skimming over a race.

I agree, I rarely take weight into account.

In my opinion, recent form from both horse and trainer is the most important factor.

Good job we don't all work the same or else no one would get a price!

 

[Desert Orchid]

In my opinion, recent form from both horse and trainer is the most important factor.

I will admit I am not averse to allowing hot/cold stable form to encourage/dissuade me from betting something I have with a big chance at the weights but my main focus is first and foremost trying to work out which of the runners have the best chances, all other things being equal.

I'll also let one or more of such horses go if I suspect another target is on the agenda but I often get that wrong too!

And, as was the case with Monmiral the other day, I allowed my regard for the trainer sway my judgment. I'm not claiming I'd have backed either Fugitif or Il Ridoto - I wouldn't - but I allowed the trainer to take a lot of the guesswork out of the race for me.

 

[Maxbet]

And, as was the case with Monmiral the other day, I allowed my regard for the trainer sway my judgment. I'm not claiming I'd have backed either Fugitif or Il Ridoto - I wouldn't - but I allowed the trainer to take a lot of the guesswork out of the race for me.

Don't know how you managed that DO, when it was clear from what Nicholl's said before the race...He was openly taking the blame for putting Cobden on what would seem to be, the wrong horse... Il Ridoto was the main one for Saturday from the outset..stable tour


Monmiral "He's a Grade 1 winner who could be nicely handicapped as a second-season chaser. It was my suggestion and Harry agreed, while he's had a racecourse gallop and did a really good piece of work. He definitely wasn't right last season and had a wind op over the summer, but he was still second to Jonbon and The Real Whacker. In the spring he did lose his way, but he was struggling with his breathing, which we've sorted out."

Nicholls would not, however, be shocked if Il Ridoto came out on top under Frost, who won this on the popular Frodon five years ago.

The trainer added: "Il Ridoto has good form too – he was third to Stage Star in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time – and it's difficult to split them. If he was near his best, he'd have a massive chance."

 

[Maruco]

I've long been an advocate of WFA for Mares working on a reducing scale. For a dominant Mare to keep the allowance always seems unfair to me.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Don't know how you managed that DO, when it was clear from what Nicholl's said before the race...He was openly taking the blame for putting Cobden on what would seem to be, the wrong horse...

I didn't see that, Maxbet, and stopped reading trainer comments a long time ago because more often than not they either put punters away or just tell downright lies.

I saw Cobden jocked up on M at the 5-day stage and assumed he'd had the free choice. Then I think it was the ITV on the Friday that said Cobden had been "steered towards" (or words to that effect) Monmiral by Nicholls, and Cobden appeared to confirm as much after winning on Madara. What was it he said? When Paul Nicholls points you to one you take notice?