Dodgy Dutch

F

Flame

At the Start
Joined
Jul 22, 2005
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2,173
Location
somerset
Hi All;

Feel pretty miffed. I placed a four horse dutch to win £35 on a race at Killarney and it gave me a liability of £160. One of the horses not in my dutch was a non runner, and now despite my horse winning, I have a red screen !! How is this possible ???
 
Do Betfair use their own markets to calculate reduction factors? They say that they are based on a non-runner's "chance of winning".

Can I back all the outsiders in a race and then lay the hell out of a horse that I know will be a non-runner, thus pushing out the price that it is trading at and presumably influencing the Betfair calculation of its chance of winning. When it is withdrawn the reduction factor on the outsiders would then presumably be less?

Could this be used to affect markets where there are low volumes? Say like a French G3 on a quiet racing day?
 
I presume they will discount all bets made after the official time of withdrawal. But still there may be some scope?
 
betsmate said:
I presume they will discount all bets made after the official time of withdrawal. But still there may be some scope?
Click to expand...

They use a median price. I,e if a horse gets loose and it's trading at 5/1, and drifts to 14/1 on Betfair and is withdraw, you normally get hit with the 5/1 reduction factor. The reduction factor is worse than a Rule 4 as well, I've always found the reduction factors seem to be massively different to that of the rule 4, I think it's deducted twice, from the price and the stake, meaning you are hit heavily.
 
Hmm ok, thanks Flame. Possible, but hard then. You would need to be dominating the market.
 
Flame said:
They use a median price. I,e if a horse gets loose and it's trading at 5/1, and drifts to 14/1 on Betfair and is withdraw, you normally get hit with the 5/1 reduction factor.
Click to expand...

Admittedly it's been 13 years since I did A Level maths, but how would 5/1 from a drift of 5/1 to 14/1 be a median price?! Surely 19/2 would be the median price in that range?!
 
good point, but I was just trying to say they use the price that was the most likely, rather than the massive drift prior to the obvious. Not the median I know, but couldn't think what to describe as, optimum price maybe ?
 
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