Doncaster Mile

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So how will Don't Panic handle this step up in class? Think he will take it in his stride to be honest. Looked a lovely prospect over course and distance the last day. I think Blythe Knight is the only possible danger.

Anything fancies in this or the rest of the card?
 
People seem to have forgotten what Munro said after the Spring Mile when it aparently took him ages to pull Don't Panic up. He said he let the horse run because it had a delicate mouth and didn't want to hurt it.

My first impression that day was that DP won despite being drawn on the worng side and that the form was excceptional.

However, I've been so hit and miss these last few weeks the horse is likely to lose if I punt it. It's also in the back of my mind that the rise of 12lbs isn't harsh and that he'd have a real shout off 104 in any of the very top mile handicaps which would be twice as valuable as this.

(Yes, I'm concerned that the horse might not be trying today shrug:: )
 
I think Tell is the danger. 7/2 with Labrokes and 5s with Sportingbet makes me think of DO's posts about the latter, though.

Can't see Blythe Knight getting involved with his penalty.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 12 2008, 10:19 AM
I think Tell is the danger. 7/2 with Labrokes and 5s with Sportingbet makes me think of DO's posts about the latter, though.
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Yes, if I'd fancied Tell and saw this I'd look elsewhere.

Don't Panic is also joint-longest with Spb but there isn't much in it.
 
On seeing the declarations I really thought it would be between B-K & Babodona both past Lincoln winners, then I saw Don't Panic in the field, having watched his last race I then thought he would be the pick based on this race alone,but he's up against seasoned campaigners over a mile so although I am going to side with him I am not so sure he will win it???. :suspect: ...............
 
I really don't think this is the day to be backing him. It's like they'll have to discover what he's made of all over again.
 
One way I've looked at this is at what the result should be based on ORs, which is:

1 Tell
2 Blythe Knight (-3lbs, 1.6 lengths)
= Medicine Path (-3lbs, 1.6 lengths)
4 Re Barolo (-5lbs, 2.7 lengths)
= Smart Enough (-5lbs, 2.7 lengths)
6 Dubai's Touch (-6lbs, 3.2 lengths)
= Don't Panic (-6lbs, 3.2 lengths)
7 Babodana (-9lbs, 4.8 lengths)

(The numbers in brackets are how far behind the winner each horse should finish, in lbs and lengths)

Based on this, I'd say:

Don't Panic is a lay at 7/4, unless you think the 21lbs that he's gone up from his last two runs is still under-estimating him by almost half a stone.

Tell is the value at around 9/2 or 5s. Medicine Path not so much, unless he's really back on track to showing some of his 2yo form.

Blythe Knight could be an each/way bet to nothing at ~7s.

Of the rest, only Re Barolo looks interesting at 25s and bigger.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Apr 12 2008, 12:56 PM
One way I've looked at this is at what the result should be based on ORs, which is:

1 Tell
2 Blythe Knight (-3lbs 5 1/2 lengths)
= Medicine Path (-3lbs, 5 1/2 lengths)
4 Re Barolo (-5lbs, 9 lengths)
= Smart Enough (-5lbs 9 lengths)
6 Dubai's Touch (-6lbs, 11 lengths)
= Don't Panic (-6lbs, 11 lengths)
7 Babodana (-9lbs,17 lengths)

(The numbers in brackets are how far behind the winner each horse should finish, in lbs and lengths)
Click to expand...
You've lost me there with the maths, Gareth.

How do 3lbs work out at 5½ lengths?
 
I quite like Medicine Path in this. Moreso on his juvenile form than any strength in his last 2 wins, though the last of those suggested he's at least as good as ever. Not sure Don't Panic is quite as good as he looked last time. I thought it quite interesting that Medicine Path holds the Lockinge entry and not Don't Panic, despite the fact (I think) that the Lockinge closed after the Spring Mile run.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+Apr 12 2008, 01:45 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ Apr 12 2008, 01:45 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Gareth Flynn@Apr 12 2008, 12:56 PM
One way I've looked at this is at what the result should be based on ORs, which is:

1 Tell
2 Blythe Knight (-3lbs 5 1/2 lengths)
= Medicine Path (-3lbs, 5 1/2 lengths)
4 Re Barolo (-5lbs, 9 lengths)
= Smart Enough (-5lbs 9 lengths)
6 Dubai's Touch (-6lbs, 11 lengths)
= Don't Panic (-6lbs, 11 lengths)
7 Babodana (-9lbs,17 lengths)

(The numbers in brackets are how far behind the winner each horse should finish, in lbs and lengths)
Click to expand...
You've lost me there with the maths, Gareth.

How do 3lbs work out at 5½ lengths? [/b][/quote]
Because I put the lengths in as an afterthought and cocked up :) Fixed now, thanks!
 
Well spotted Charlie! Strange looking colt - what a deep neck! - but clearly talented
PCH has clearly got him at the right trip now - was with Eoghan O'Niell - and he's 3/3 at a mile
One to watch

Danehill Dancer form an Indian Ridge mare - probably liked that bit of cut too
 
Did it well didn't he. Hard to know why a horse that took the stoking he did as a juvenile travels so well now, so well to the point of being free. Nice call Charlie D, your presence is missed at t'other place. Well by me at least ;-)
 
Watching the race without a financial interest, I'd say anyone who backed the favourite is entitled to be deeply suspicious at the way that race panned out.
 
PCH has taken him back in distance, will be training him differently too now doubt than how he was trained with E O'N
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Apr 12 2008, 03:45 PM
Watching the race without a financial interest, I'd say anyone who backed the favourite is entitled to be deeply suspicious at the way that race panned out.
Click to expand...
You think DO? I didn't spot anything myself on first viewing.
 
Like most by Fath, Don't panic has a high cruising speed but no kick, he needs to be ridden just off a strong pace. Not sure the winner would beat him again I don't think he idled.
 
I had no financial interest in the race having voiced a concern earlier today that today might not be the day for DP. Just as the horse started to move to the front I expected Munro to shake him up and really put the race to bed but when he didn't I thought, oh he's trying to win cleverly, then when the stable companion came alongside I thought Munro took a disguised pull while giving the whip an air shot.
 
Thought it was strange that Munro didn't go for the whip until the winner had gone right past, and then didn't go for it again until he was almost 2 lengths down - to which he responded and (aided by the winner doing a victory dance) got to within a length.
 
Just watched it back again. When Munro went for the whip for the first time (after MP had gone by), its fair to say that - as DO noticed - it wasn't particularly strongly. Odd.
 
Some horses don't respond well to the whip - you'd need to watch his other races to see how it was used
 
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