Draw Effect On Lincoln

M

montyracing2

At the Start
Joined
Apr 17, 2005
Messages
763
Location
Blackpool
My trends process does include draw analysis and, given very little data to work with at the 'new' Doncaster, I'm taking the decision that a high draw will be of advantage - from a quick analysis of last years races from 5f to 12f.

Anyone else with a view .....

MR2
 
According to Andrew Balding in the RP today, they've revamped the drainage since last year, so it's anyone's guess as to what side, if any, will be favoured.
 
I don't intend to have a bet until I've seen the Spring Mile and the Cammidge. Otherwise it's total guesswork unless you've knowledge of the course.
 
The Cammidge won't be a significant factor. Different draw biases can be in evidence at different trips on the same straight track. Strange, but true.
 
Clerk of the Course too has stated they have worked very hard to eliminate draw bias, and I remember Fanshawe failing to turn up for some heritage handicap and 'drawing the short straw' ie getting the worst draw - then winning the race! So I'm not too sure it will have much bearing on the result, courses which can do so have been trying to eliminate such things
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 22 2008, 12:52 AM
courses which can do so have been trying to eliminate such things
Click to expand...
A side effect of racing's money being tied to bookmaker's profits and a fact that is turning uk flat racing into a lottery. If Frankie's ever going for 7/7 again, pile into it being disqualified.
 
Originally posted by rorydelargy@Mar 21 2008, 11:11 PM
The Cammidge won't be a significant factor. Different draw biases can be in evidence at different trips on the same straight track. Strange, but true.
Click to expand...
Can be, yes, but if one side in the Cammidge emerges ten lengths clear of the other wouldn't you want to take that into account?
 
Still inconclusive, except if you consider the winners of all handicaps of 12f or shorter, with 15 or more runners, run since last September at Doncaster. A quick,cheap and prbably flawed looksee shows that 13 from the 14 winners were drawn in the top half

This number might change a little bit when non-runners are taken into consideration and yesterdays races seem to show that some balancing out is taking place. If I were to look at the first six yesterday in each of the big handicaps the draw advantage would seem irrelevant (6 low & 6 high) but I put this down to the strang tail wind throwing in another confusing variable.

I'm hoping someone with the appropriate software can put better analysis together.

GLTA this flat season - MR2
 
Back
Top