E/W Acca

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wilsonl

Senior Jockey
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The Lincoln, Masters and Grand National all within a week and we're going to see some serious place terms.

Anybody got any really strong fancies for something to at least him the frame ?

Though he may find one or two better weighted rivals it's hard to see The Last Samuri finishing any worse than 6th with reasonable luck in running on ground hopefully more suitable than last year.
 
Yes, I agree. Need a strong leg to take into the following weekend and I'm no flat connoisseur so looking for inspiration.
 
Gigilo has suggested 3 for the Lincoln
The Grand National thread is flowing
The Masters is all about price.
 
I wouldn't have a clue about the Lincoln but I'd go with Blaklion (14/1, quarter odds 5 places) in the National and Matsuyama in the Masters (18/1, quarter odds first 8 with Skybet).
 
archie said:
I wouldn't have a clue about the Lincoln but I'd go with Blaklion (14/1, quarter odds 5 places) in the National and Matsuyama in the Masters (18/1, quarter odds first 8 with Skybet).
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Matsuyama's last 9 rounds in the Masters have been 71, 71, 70, 70, 66, 71, 72, 72, 73.
 
Skybet 1/4 8 places
PP 1/5 8 places

Never blow your load too soon. Remember that next Wednesday all the 5 place firms will ha e to go Top price and above to take a bet. 5 places e/w with those firms at the aggressive pricing will have some standout value.
 
No good if I want to include something from the Lincoln in the e/w trixie though Slim. Really struggling with that race though so I think I'll stick to what I know* and keep it to the e/w double.

I do like Blaklion for a place Archie but think The Last Sumari may be a better lock to hit the frame, maybe without quite the same win chance from that mark. Which makes it a tough call.

Vieux Lion Rouge and The Last Samuri the two most likely to run their race and place IMO.


re Matsuyama. My concern would be his dip in form. He started the season red hot but has fell away as the other principles have started contesting more tournies.

I do like Fowler and Rose though for a place at decent prices. Also think Hatton is huge at 50/1 8 places.


*Questionable
 
There is one player in the Masters list that is incredible value e/w across all place terms. You lads haven't found him because you're too busy looking at "form" and coming up with your g̶u̶e̶s̶s̶e̶s̶ selections.
 
The value surely has to be with the following

Kaymer 150/1
Z Johnson 100/1
J Walker 100/1
Leishman 66/1

All prices with Skybet and the 8 places on offer.
 
SlimChance said:
There is one player in the Masters list that is incredible value e/w across all place terms. You lads haven't found him because you're too busy looking at "form" and coming up with your g̶u̶e̶s̶s̶e̶s̶ selections.
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I don't think your talking about Willett so I reckon it must be Snedeker.
 
The Masters is obviously the best Major for applying horses-for-courses and Kaymer's record is shocking for a player of his quality. In nine attempts he's yet to break into the top 30.

I take Slim's point on board about not letting opinion dictate too much but there's a hell of a lot of double combinations between the Masters and The Grand National so opinion / form / stats etc. have to be applied somewhere.
 
Don't look at the English National, and look at the Irish one instead, for your each-way acca.

Minella Foru is an absolute cracking bet at 16/1 (Corals). Laid out for this.
 
wilsonl said:
The Masters is obviously the best Major for applying horses-for-courses and Kaymer's record is shocking for a player of his quality. In nine attempts he's yet to break into the top 30.

I take Slim's point on board about not letting opinion dictate too much but there's a hell of a lot of double combinations between the Masters and The Grand National so opinion / form / stats etc. have to be applied somewhere.
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Kaymer went through a massive dip in form because he changes his swing to be able to play Augusta. There is no point in looking at form unless you also have context.

http://www.augusta.com/masters/story/news/settling-new-swing-pays-martin-kaymer
 
Worked wonders for him. That article was March 2015;

"That is why I can play Augusta as well as I do now"

A month later he missed the cut and then scraped through last year after shooting 149 through 36.
 
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If anyone wants to have as little as a £5/£10 e/w trixie on for me with Skybet then please PM me details of where to send the cash.

Masters - Rafael Cabrera Bello 125/1
National - Vieux Lion Rouge 10/1
Lincoln - Donncha 7/1

Anyone that gets me on will be given a bet at Dundalk tomorrow morning that would usually go on the will win thread
 
wilsonl said:
Worked wonders for him. That article was March 2015;

"That is why I can play Augusta as well as I do now"

A month later he missed the cut and then scraped through last year after shooting 149 through 36.
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Talk about missing the point.
 
tbh I'm not sure what the point is.

He started adjusting his swing in 2011 to adapt to Augusta. He's since (2012 onwards) posted finishing figures of 44-35-31-MC-49

He's 150/1 for a reason.
 
wilsonl said:
tbh I'm not sure what the point is.

He started adjusting his swing in 2011 to adapt to Augusta. He's since (2012 onwards) posted finishing figures of 44-35-31-MC-49

He's 150/1 for a reason.
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There is a fundamental reason why he had a bad record in Augusta pre 2012. You also need to factor in that these swing changes had him plummet in the world rankings. He's not probably playing well enough to contend this year but you're 5 years too late using this as a reason to find value in the market betting against him.

AV ROUND AV FINISH
Augusta ALL 73.96 53.2
2008 - 2011 74.25 60
2012 - 2016 73.83 47.8

Year Year End Rank
2016 52
2015 27
2014 12
2013 39
2012 28
2011 4
2010 3
 
I'll perm a few of these.

Masters

DJ (11/2 SkyBet, 11/2 PP) - Too Short
Speith (7/1 SkyBet, 13/2 PP) - Solid but short
Rory (15/2 SkyBet, 7/1 PP) - Solid but short

Rose (28/1 SkyBet, 28/1 PP)
Stenson (28/1 SkyBet, 28/1 PP)
Casey (33/1 SkyBet, 40/1 PP)
Snedeker (45/1 SkyBet, 45/1 PP)

Oosthuizen (55/1 SkyBet, 55/1 PP) - Possible

Bill Haas (100/1 SkyBet, 100/1 PP) – Long-shot but solid enough Augusta form and playing okay.

SkyBet 1/4 odds. PP 1/5 odds. Both 8 places.


Grand National

Vieux Lion Rouge (10/1 SkyBet, 10/1 PP)
Blaklion (14/1 SkyBet, 14/1 PP)
The Last Samuri (14/1 SkyBet, 14/1 PP)

Vicente (25/1 SkyBet, 25/1 PP)
Double Shuffle (33/1 SkyBet, 25/1 PP)

Lord Windermere (50/1 SkyBet, 50/1 PP) - Possible

SB & PP 5 Places, 1/4 odds.


I'll also back Hatton in an e/w single as I don't know how he's going to take to the place and don't want him screwing a double.
 
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wilsonl said:
I'll perm a few of these.

Masters

DJ (11/2 SkyBet, 11/2 PP) - Too Short
Speith (7/1 SkyBet, 13/2 PP) - Solid but short
Rory (15/2 SkyBet, 7/1 PP) - Solid but short

Rose (28/1 SkyBet, 28/1 PP)
Stenson (28/1 SkyBet, 28/1 PP)
Casey (33/1 SkyBet, 40/1 PP)
Snedeker (45/1 SkyBet, 45/1 PP)

Oosthuizen (55/1 SkyBet, 55/1 PP) - Possible

Bill Haas (100/1 SkyBet, 100/1 PP) – Long-shot but solid enough Augusta form and playing okay.

SkyBet 1/4 odds. PP 1/5 odds. Both 8 places.


Grand National

Vieux Lion Rouge (10/1 SkyBet, 10/1 PP)
Blaklion (14/1 SkyBet, 14/1 PP)
The Last Samuri (14/1 SkyBet, 14/1 PP)

Vicente (25/1 SkyBet, 25/1 PP)
Double Shuffle (33/1 SkyBet, 25/1 PP)

Lord Windermere (50/1 SkyBet, 50/1 PP) - Possible

SB & PP 5 Places, 1/4 odds.


I'll also back Hatton in an e/w single as I don't know how he's going to take to the place and don't want him screwing a double.
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Just my opinion but covering the big three in the market is both expensive and pointless.
 
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