Much as though I'd like to offer you some kind words Highchapp, I'm afraid my instinct is that you've done your money, and that the horse won't even finish in the top half. Nick Mordin ought to know better quite frankly.
In the first case the proximity of the Supreme to the Champion on the stopwatch owes more to the fact that the Champion was slow rather than the Supreme being quick. I keep my own ratings stretching back 12 years now, and both were the second slowest renewals I hold a record for. Topspeed also has the Champion Hurdle as the slowest they hold a record for during the last 15 years. You need to go back to Royal Gait in 1992 to find one slower (which makes Tom Segal's piece in the Weekender last Wednesday all the more puzzling shrug:: ). In 1999 Hors Loi La was actually faster in the Supreme than Istabraq was in the Champion. You might draw some hope from the fact that he would eventually go on to inherit a Champion Hurdle, but I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
The two fastest novices I held a rating for from last season (those best equipped to go into open company) didn't line up for the Supreme (Osana and Blythe Knight). It is perhaps therefore of little surprise to see just how badly last seasons renewal is working out compared to others. Up to February 1st of the following year, of those horses who kept to hurdles the following has occurred/ did occur.
2007 - 5 wins from 51 = 9.8%
2006 - 12 wins from 59 = 20.3%
2005 - 8 wins from 45 = 17.7%
2004 - 8 wins from 36 = 22.2%
2003 - 12 wins from 53 = 22.6%
I should perhaps also add that only one of those 5 wins from last years crop came in a graded hurdle (De Valira @ Fairyhouse). In previous years there's normally been about 4 or 5 by now. Classic Role won a maiden at Plumpton, Shanghide a 7K novice at Gowran, Special Envoy a novice at Newbury and even Ebaziyan's win came in a 8K race at Punchestown that he was entitled to, and prompted Mullins into wryly remarking it would probably be his only win of the season. Not exactly inspiring confidence.
Championship 2 mile races tend to be run at lickety spit on most occasions, and people tend to under estimate the value of stamina that's needed to win them, as it involves cruising through the sections in an economical and consistent fashion. Other horses win what I refer to as 'jog and sprints'. These often look visually impressive, but come March such candidates are going into unknown territory as they rarely get the chance to accelerate off a slow speed. Similarly, those horses who'd be winning thus in novice company, are likely to struggle once they move into open company. Ebaziyan has never really demonstrated to my satisfaction that he's able to compete, yet alone win such a race
I could give Ebaziyan a squeak off a slow pace, as I believe this holds the key to him rather than the ground or the field size as Mordin hypothesises, but with Osana likely to set a fierce gallop and Straw Bear probably racing prominently, I can't see this happening, especially as they won't want to risk giving the Pipe horse a re-run of the Bula. My feeling is that he's going to get taken off his feet, and although the race might ultimately fall to something held up, there are better qualified candidates
