Eider Handicap Chase

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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32 horses still in this historic early closing race which takes place at Newcastle next Saturday.

I'm not much interested in whether any race is a valid trial for any other race or not - I see them all as intriguing contests in their own right.

The five-day confirmations will be on Monday.

I've no idea if she runs or not, but last year's fourth Gold Clermont ran a bit better last time out and if the mare turns up and is in the mood current offers of 50/1 might seem fair each-way though, of course, there might be extended place terms on the day.

Ante-post betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/eider-handicap-chase/winner
 
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If you were judging the market tonight you'd have to think a lot of these won't be lining up 2 who more than likely will are Anglers crag best price 10/1 only 4lb higher than last years win so you'd think that will look a good price by the time the fields thinned out. You could make a case for Major Dundee at 25's who was still in contention for this last year when coming down at the 2nd last he's 5lb lower this year so a 9lb pull with Anglers crag. He hasn't been in form and has pulled up last time out. However he'd PU last year in the Classic chase before turning up for this so if he's going to ever wind the clock back and rediscover some form you'd expect it to be here, 4 places available and this cut up last year to a dozen runners. He was set for a place last year so at the price he might be worth and early sheckle or two.
 
All trends can be broken just like I've seen 1/10 shots get turned over but since 2000, 33 horses have ran in consecutive Eiders and only one has won (Mysteree won in 2017 at 10/1 after coming 4th the previous year at 20/1), but I'm sure layers will be happy to accomodate those who think that's irrelevant
 
As a follow up to my OP I am inclined to wait because she is also engaged at Exeter on Friday with Sean Bowen booked.

She might also need a few to come out and some trainers annoyingly withdraw when the writing is on the wall rather than declare and miss the cut.
 
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Screenshot of the top rated on RPRs. On that scale, 141 could be considered handicapped to win. My own figures will almost certainly reflect at least a couple of them so there is very probably value in that top handful:


Screenshot (144).png
 
Looking at this subset of my prev winners info you can see that since the distance was slightly shortened in 2016 and then lengthened in 2021, all but one winner is has been less than 10yr old, what the change was I dunno , I haven't looked. But how significant that is given the age of winners in prev years one would have to ponder and make a call on. Personally I would probably draw a line through anything greater than or equal to 11yr old to help narrow it down.

I'd say more pertinent is the fact that all but one winner since 2000 has had an official rating less than 140.

But like the trial/pointer race formlines I like to look at they're all just trends to weigh and consider according to ones own preferences to help form an opinion

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Wasn't the 2016 change in distance just down to course remeasurement?

I have all the remeasured distances at all the tracks archived and can check once I get the chance.
 
Copied from the Longshot thread:

Saturday's Eider Chase - Knockanore 40/1, 5 places - with PP but they restricted me to a few quid so had to take the rest at Ladbrokes (33/1). This is my main fancy in the race but I'm relying on my gut to an extent. He's a first-season novice whose breeding (Shantou x Oscar) suggests the London Marathon might not be far enough but who has only once raced beyond 2½ miles, last time, and could be an awful lot better than his mark at this trip. I think any rain will help him a lot too.
 
I think Alan King has quite a strong hand in this, although there has been a bit of coughing in his yard - seems clear now, he says. Major Dundee unseated two out in this last year looking set for a place and is 5lb lower this time with Brian Hughes in the saddle whilst Egbert was immediately targeted for this (they all are aren’t they!!) after winning the Tommy Whittle at Haydock in December.
 
Bretney:Eider chase 40/1
This horse could hardly be described as consistent, but is a hardy out and out stayer when in form.
Has a decent record 2nd time out and the switch of headgear has worked in the past.
A speculative selection in an open looking race.
 
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