O.k Marb I haven't found anything solid after all the rain has put me off a couple of my stronger fancies and in truth I won't be having a bet. I just posted this over at my other place as we battle to keep it going.Just a few I considered for today but as yet I'm yet to back a single sausage. I read you'd have some bad news earlier in the week and haven't read much on the forum since so don't know if your about today but I hope things are o.k for you mate.
I'll kick off with something fairly simple but a race I haven't had time to look at and its quite simply one from my note book that might have a squeak. In the 4.20 at Doncaster
Felix Leiter 13/2 Ladbrokes. Posted a good figure a couple of runs ago and seemingly would have had no chance last time up against the Tin man but kept on well for third. Has only run once with soft in the description and won by 5L off a mark of 75 now off 83 remembering that was over 6F that's quite a big winning distance.His most recent runs have him with a decent chance anyway but if he can step up for having softer conditions then he must surely go close. Unfortunately I haven't really had time to go through the rest of the field ( probably should be doing that now instead of writing this ) but its also an apprentices race which I try to avoid at all costs. Megan Nicholls in the saddle other than the fact her Dad ain't bad at training a jumper I know little else of her.
The 2.10 Doncaster is the race I spent a lot of time on earlier in the week and originally I fancied
Lucky beggar quite strongly to get the job done. Just basic form reading of his attempt in the Portland gives him a fair enough chance. Although he finished 7th there he faded badly in the closing stages and this is over half a furlong shorter and he's 3lb lower and todays contest is/would have been a bit less competitive. What's notable from the Portland though is the slow time. This is quite strange as I noted when I assessed the race that there was a stack of front runners who set up a really strong pace. The only thing I can conclude from this is that they've gone too fast and all fell in a hole. This stacks up as at least the first 5 home came from off the pace and in that light Lucky Beggars performance looks even better. He wasn't drawn amongst the main action but he was prominent on the other side of the track and the fact he was more or less laying up with the scalded cat Tangerine Trees is probably an indicator that he was indeed going too fast early. So I was fairly confident he would be taking this down today under hopefully a more restrained ride with AA on board. He's drawn in the centre which should be ideal. My problem is though that the ground has gone softer than I expected and although he has bits and pieces of form on a softer surface it brings a whole host of problems from other runners who will really appreciate these conditions. Confessional,Artic Feeling,Adams Ale,Union Rose, Demora,Dungannon the list is endless of those who's chances are upgraded for soft ground. It simply brings in too many dangers for him to be a solid bet now. It would also be hard to split any of those named confidently and I could make a case for any of them as well as a couple of others so I'm out
In the 3.00 Newbury
Spas Dancer 22/1 BV looks to have dropped to an attractive mark and he won't mind 10f on soft ground. He put in a decent performance at Chester earlier in the year under similar conditions from a 6lb higher mark. After that he's run a decent race staying on over a shorter trip at Nottingham. Maybe age is catching up with him as he was only seen once more on the flat and that was 8 weeks later at Goodwood where admittedly he was disappointing but perhaps the break had just taken the edge off of him. He's had a couple of efforts over hurdles since so hopefully he'd strip fitter here. I wanted to get involved in this race as I felt the favourite Examiner would struggle with conditions thus creating a bit of value in the market but not finding anything that really stood out amongst the rest I came to Spa's Dancer but I can't say I've fully convinced myself of his chances and he may just be on a decline that he won't return from. If he was going to bounce back to something like his former self then today might be the day but I doubt it. Perhaps a more simple alternative lies in 2nd favourite Kastini 2 wins from his last 2 visits to Newbury suited by conditions appeals however his ever increasing mark and his price has me out on him too.
The other race I spent a lot of time on this week was the 3.10 at Doncaster once again the ground has played a role in putting me off getting involved.
Buonarotti was my original Idea and I was expecting that he might be a hell of a price ,16's currently was a fair chunk less than I'd hoped for. He'd been fairly disappointing on 2 tries over shorter distances recently thus I'd hoped his chances would be overlooked. He'd put in a decent effort over 10f staying on in a handicap over 10.5f here at 50/1 finishing 2L 4th and looks the sort to be suited to Doncaster. His last try over todays trip though offered more encouragement.It was a slowly run affair but the way the race panned out he did well to get as close to Penhill as he did (Penhill making a decisive early move paid dividends) . The 3rd and the 5th from that race have both won since and the 4th ran a decent 2nd next time up so the form looks decent especially as I think Buonrotti looked like he'd be more suited by a more evenly run contest. The other one who stood out a bit was
Blue Hussar who I originally thought would be vying for favouritism as he'd produced a big figure last time up when winning a very strongly run contest. He's currently 11/1 which is a bit of a surprise but again he's a bit of a chancey one. He'd been looking very ordinary until his latest win and that was in first time cheek pieces whether or not they'll have the same effect today is anyone's guess. Also the fact that last race was so strongly run it seemed to suit him perfectly and there is no guarantee of such a pace today I wouldn't be surprised in a slower run contest that he'd pull his chances away. I might still have been prepared to take the chance but on top of this we now have a very different surface to what we had at Ripon so again I'm bet less.I supposed I'd better mention Oasis Fantasy who was another being considered earlier in the week. Running off the same mark and back at this trip for the first time since Epsom where he ran 3rd to Blue Surf and was rather unfortunate. He's the sort who takes a bit of winding up and a track like Doncaster with its long straight should be perfect for him but again the ground has gone against him and he was beaten in this contest on soft ground last year from a lower mark so that's him out.
Having looked at Cheltenham and been a bit uninspired by the card I thought the first race of the day looked the most likely to find a bet in. New sensation and Eastlake probably set the standard having been 1-2 in the Johnny Henderson last year and both have a record off going well off the back of a break of the 2 I'd favour Eastlake but I couldn't guarantee he won't be running with the handbrake on as Kid Cassidy and probably many others before him in the Green and Gold silks have done before in this race. Sew on target holds some decent form but not first time up. Dunraven strom had some good form here at the beginning of last season his form tailed off later in the season and on reappearance he was very disappointing and that's hard to forgive as he'd won fto last year so you'd have expected better. Looking through the others a few that are race fit look held and there are a few who aren't who usually need the run. When I come to giving a chance to
Astracad I know its been a tough day. He finally managed to get his head in front after a 2 and a half year drought. Through those years he's shown promise but never delivered and he's coming to an age where you expect he's not going to get any better. When he just about managed to get the better of Third Intention last time he was off 132 with Jamie Bagary taking 7lb off that. They did however pull a fair way clear of the rest. He's been raised 5lb and STD takes the mount today so no claim and on any given day I'd say that's too much. Perhaps just getting his head in front will serve as a confidence boost and the fact he has match fitness on his side against some well exposed rivals and some others who will probably need the run then perhaps he might just follow up or at least be involved in the finish.Track,trip,conditions and the likely good pace will suit but overall it is Astracad so I wouldn't hold my breath.
Sorry I have nothing more solid but hopefully you can find something of interest out of all that lot.
Not really ending things with a bang more of a whimper
