Epsom & The Rest

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INVESTEC WEALTH & INVESTMENT HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Winner

The one I'm looking at is Creme Anglaise especially her run at Nottingham last year which is a SRT to Epsom today. Creme Anglaise run to a speed rating of (91.82) behind Mohedian Lady running to 94 off 86 (8lbs improvement) whilst she runs off 92 today.

The winner has gone on to better things winning a Listed race, Ivan Vaslivech who was coming into the race off an Ascot win when beating Gatewood by 2.5l was beaten 15l here.

The fourth horse Polperro then in the hands of John Gosden brings in some solid lines over from Dubai but also his Windsor win over 10f giving 3lbs to Ashiri for a 2.25l defeat which can be brought around to a 5.45 lengths and this Ashiri was defeated by Stand To Reason 5.25l getting 1lb from the winner on unfavorable conditions of soft ground which means the favourite is closer tied to Crem Anglaise than the price differentiation suggests.

The performance was around an all age 0-110 or 0-105 Handicap but given you need to be at least a Listed class horse to win this she's still a little short of this class, the ground that day was on the firm side and she looked to handle those conditions well.

The horse has only run twice left handed once at York when fourth to Tenby Lady & her second to Mohedian Lady at Nottingham, coincidentally those two would seem to be her best back to back performances over 10f on Good/Firm ground in which she'll be getting today not forgetting Hayley Turner returns to ride.

Michael Bell returning to Epsom with a Motivator Filly with Hayley Turner getting her first ride in the Derby and he has saddled 14 four year old fillies in June including 2 wins (Juniper Girl, Bouncy Bouncy) and 7 places (Sariska, Juniper Girl, Babycakes x2, Montrachet x2 & Ming Meng)

By no means is she bomb proof but I think in the market she could be value at 20/1

£25 Each Way - Creme Anglaise (20/1 BET365)
 
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INVESTEC MILE HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105)

Another Handicap to get our teeth's stuck in to in a competitive 17 runner field for this Investec Mile in which I think John Bridger's Starwatch could well be over priced and may hold the key to a good bet on another horse.

Going back to Goodwood last year which is a SRT to Epsom, on the 11th of September when Starwatch beat Tillsworth Glenboy the horse 1.25l back in third is old boy Mahadee who went on to run Nazreef at Goodwood to within 1.75l two runs later.

The winner Nazreef ties in some solid form from the Snowdrop Fillies Stakes card back in April when he won the London Mile Quallifier beating Double Dealer 3 lengths who had previously run Royah within a neck at Newmarket last time out although turned that form over with a 3.75l defeat of Royah at Lingfield next time out.

Third in the London Miler Qualifier was Highland Knight who was a pricewise selection on the day and quiet fancied by connections although found himself well beat by 4.25l off level weights.

Going back to the race won by Starwatch at Goodwood the 6th horse Sweet Child O Mine run at The Goodwood Festival in the Fillies & Mares over 9f from stall 18 she finished 8th giving the 9th horse Fanny May 5lbs for a 0.5l defeat. With Fanny May reappearing this year at Newmarket where she was 4th behind Dandana for the Luca Cumani team and this writes off Borug who was back in 5th, a troublesome and ungainly 5th.

The filly Sweet Child O Mine would race at Goodwood next time out over 10 furlongs finishing 4th beaten 8.25l by Cry Fury, the third horse in that race interestingly was Arabian star who was receiving 10lbs from the fourth horse for a 2.25l beating and now Arabian Star holds Boogie Shoes with a 1.25l margin of victory in receipt of 7lbs and that's a race that quite a few of the runners are evolving from.

Looking at that London Mile again, the Godolphin tie obviously knocks a few out from the Thirsk Hunt Cup and the Newmarket run saw fourth placed horse Diverting beaten 4.25l who reappeared at Ascot this year when finishing 3.75l behind Moones My Name in reciept of 8lbs.

And that's who I'm going to pin my selection on, Moone's My Name who has a solid line through Starwatch at Windsor which could be more significant in being able to win today.

The Starwatch collateral form is quite strong especially because it contains strength in depth from the same courses in particularly significantly related courses to Epsom, the mile distance today, horses that are solid yard sticks and horses who have been targeted for races.

But you get the feeling Starwatch may just need to improve a little further with soft conditions looking an advantage for him which he's unlikely to get today although his track record may play some role at balancing the scales.

Moone's My Name has quite comfortably beat Ree's Rascal a course and distance winner at Windsor by 4l off level weights whilst Starwatch under the same course, distance and conditions was beaten 0.5l by Ree's Rascal, whilst Starwatch was quite comfortably put in his place on reappearance by Moone's My Name although you could forgive that run for obvious reasons.

The two horses have good chances although I'm swinging for Moone's My Name who looks to be going the right way this year with added ability on the clock she looks to be running off a decent handicap mark and you wouldn't envisage her being too far out of the frame today even in an even of a poor run but she looks the right profile for this race with the ground looking to etch out further improvement

£100 WIN Moone's My Name (8/1 BET365)
£25 Moone's My Name & Starwatch any order forceast
£25 Each Way - Starwatch (20/1 BET365)
 
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The rest of the card for me I'd like to take the chance on Justneo in the 450 for William Haggas who showed a good level of ability when second behind Bronterre at Goodwood and could run into the frame, well I expect him to at least be challenging for a winning position on that level of form.

The next in the 525 is a race that you'd have to go easy with as I'm not sure anyone could put their hands on heart and suggest a horse that has a solid chance of winning although I believe if you find something with unfashionable potential.

Like Fire Ship for William Knight who is certainly a trainer that can fire them to run career bests out of the blue in a shrewd operation, he has a filly that looks well treated down the bottom of the weights with her shd defeat to Takeitfromalady in what looks a race that may hold some well handicapped fillies and being headed the final strides she may be suited to the 7f after showing good pace.
 
Pretty impressive I thought. Not the best field in this race I'm sure but he's demolished three nice horses in Beaten Up, Red Cadeaux and a St Leger winner in Masked Marvel.
 
Fair one.

My tweet to the RP who say the horse might be headed for the POW and KG:


@Racing_Post SNA needs a long straight and Group 2 opposition to be seen at his most effective. He won't get either at Ascot.
 
SNA seemed to handle the tight track at Churchill Downs fairly well in the Breeders' Cup Turf. And he went round Chester in the Ormonde well, admittedly against moderate horses.
 
Agree. He looked all at sea for much of the race last year before getting up to beat Midday. He did look better this year though.
 
Anyone notice how high his fore legs were off the ground?

You could argue that the last 3 furlongs when he's asked to quicken and win his race he's lost around 2-3 seconds with this movement in flight, I'm sure for every 4 strides he lost at least 1.5 strides due to the amount of time he was in the air.
 
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