Facts - or are they?

B

BennyB

Senior Jockey
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I was listening to William Hill radio yesterday and they were previewing a race at Wincanton. One of the presenters casually tossed into the conversation "of course Venetia's horses love heavy ground".

You hear this so often but I was wondering whether there's any empirical evidence behind it. If it's true, why is it true? Does she (or her bloodstock agent or her owners) specifically buy horses that are bred to like a softer surface, or do her training methods place more emphasis on stamina than other trainers? Or is it just trite bollocks.

Other such truisms include Dettori is great from the front, Mick Appelby's horses love Fibresand, Paul Nicholls is good at training French breds...

Thoughts?
 
BennyB said:
I was listening to William Hill radio yesterday and they were previewing a race at Wincanton. One of the presenters casually tossed into the conversation "of course Venetia's horses love heavy ground".

You hear this so often but I was wondering whether there's any empirical evidence behind it. If it's true, why is it true? Does she (or her bloodstock agent or her owners) specifically buy horses that are bred to like a softer surface, or do her training methods place more emphasis on stamina than other trainers? Or is it just trite bollocks.

Other such truisms include Dettori is great from the front, Mick Appelby's horses love Fibresand, Paul Nicholls is good at training French breds...

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

There was much fun a few years ago when a coule of Irish racing journalist tried to solve the various jockeys misconceptions on their ability from the front using data. Unfortunately they completely misconstrued the data not realsing that it was a self fulfilling prophecy. One of them looked at Paul Carberry's record against SP where he made the running. Of course this is not clean data because if you backed every front runner at SP you will likely make money. To see this in action look at what happens to a horse not expected to make the running price on Betfair in running when they jump off in front.
 
It's a fact most like testing conditions but Heavy no Only 3 winners on heavy ground this season

10 won on soft
6 won on good to soft
3 won on Heavy
2 won on good
 
i think it's more to do with the fact she doesn't like running them on ground better than soft ( that's not to say that she doesn't). She once told me she'd prefer not to risk horses on drier ground as she likes her horses to race until at least 12 and likes to train for veteran races. There's one such horse of hers running at Wincanton today, Benny's Mist, who has an excellent record on the ground he will encounter today and who has a good course record.
 
Then again, Phil Bull insisted it was errant nonsense to suggest any horse "likes" any going. Horses, according to him, are not capable of liking or disliking. Their physiology either allows them to perform to the best of their ability in certain conditions or not.

So technically he would argue that the whole idea of a fact based on liking among horses is invalid.

Of course, racing journos will say just about anything to fill space.
 
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