Forum Value Hunt RACES

EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
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late 1960's early 70's
Just thought i'd start a thread for races, other thread now has a life of its own.

Not sure what we will do this coming week, looks pretty low key. If anyone has a suggestion for a race for us to look at..then suggest away.

Just a guidleine to what we are doing..if anyone missed the idea.

Look at the race and post your figures for how many times you think a horse would win the race if it was run 100 times..so all your figures will add up to 100.

If when you post them could so so in the following way to make it easier to transfer to spredasheet.

25 Kauto Star

basically type the number..then one space before the name..makes life a lot easier for calcs

so ..all we need is a race to look at
 
I have to emphasise here that, when I do my figures, I am simply looking at winning (as per the instructions) rather than placing at a fifth the odds. There are plenty of horses that will regularly place at double figure prices but simply never win and any tissue that comes out has to be considered win only.

Also, maybe recognition for anyone who has the winner and a double finger salute to anyone who has a smart alec comment but no other contribution.
 
correct..you are assessing a horses win chance..that way we should get a fair effort..the first one we did i thought was superb.

the thread is -1 point at the moment
 
If this thread is going to generate enough replies to be worthwhile, it needs to do two things.

Firstly, it needs to provide a couple of days notice to cater for analysis and then replies, and secondly, it needs to steer clear of the fu*cking sand, to cater for those with class and discernment.

Pitching the following Saturday's big handicap (hurdle or chase) in the week would be a good idea, so that there is plenty of time for analysis, before final adjustments on the day of race/runners are confirmed.
 
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it will be a decent NH race for the foreseeable future Grass..if we can find one in the coming week would be handy:)

the sand isn't an option..not enough people are interested
 
lets look tomorrow..pick the best race for next Saturday..unless we feel something is going to be 1/2 or summat in a a conditions race..a class 2 race ought to be the lowest we consider imo.

If we put one up tomorrow..then we have 5 days to look at it.
 
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according to RP wall calendar its warwick + wetherby. not sure a 3m5f slogfest will be too appealing though DG. if its wetherby i'll make David Wilkie and Ducan Goodhew 6/4 joint fav's for whatever race they are entered in.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Isn't it the big 3m 5f chase at Warwick this Saturday ?
Click to expand...

I couldn't have told you that as I tend not to worry about that race until I have to. I was going by PFN's quote in the stable tour that [not necessarily verbatim] "races like the Welsh Grand National and Warwick National will be right up his [Black Thunder's] street."

The Welsh race was, of course, supposed to have been a couple of weeks back and it looks like the Warwick race was probably only on the radar if Chepstow was abandoned completely or of the horse suffered an early mishap in it.
 
the choice is between the class 2 at wetherby..2.10 race or that 3.35.. 3m5f race at Warwick

anyone have any particular view?

looking at the weather..both meetings should be on
 
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