Front Runners collapsing on Betfair

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SlimChance

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Everyday there are horses that end up making the running collapsing on Betfair on the show. Its my thinking that these moves are coming from thorough form students who work out the dynamics of the race and what will or might get a soft lead. Perhaps there running an algorithm to give them a tissue price based on form and the likely running styles and the dynamics of the race. Has anyone every given any though to this because its a massive edge if you can work it out and bet at early prices.

I'm intrigued by it lately after a horse made all in Ireland after collapsing on the show. He got a soft lead and took advantage. of course the trainer was not happy with the ride because the instructions were to hold it up. It appears the market worked this out rather then this being 'inside information'. There was no significant bet struck in the ring so it was purely a machine move.

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Willoughby mentioned this before before the race Mount Athos won at Newbury -he had a good point but he does go on and on.IIRC he said the market pre race on Betfair had to factor in the price of a decent horse making all the running otherwise it would be an easy arb.
 
LUKE said:
Willoughby mentioned this before before the race Mount Athos won at Newbury -he had a good point but he does go on and on.IIRC he said the market pre race on Betfair had to factor in the price of a decent horse making all the running otherwise it would be an easy arb.
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I remember him saying it a few years ago and its always been at the back of my mind.

I've also see the only 2yo with form to shorten up on the show in a small 2yo race because its the one that's most likely to jump the gate and lead. If you could figure out what makes the pace you can make money.

There is of course another way to profit from front runners in the shops but that's an off forum discussion!
 
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SlimChance said:
If you could figure out what makes the pace you can make money.
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If you can figure out what the pace of a future race will be, you will make money.

Understanding pace post-race (sectionals etc.) is one thing, but trying to read it accurately before the race is a different ballgame. I find that to be especially true in lower-grade races.

If you bet a horse that has run well against a pace bias on his last run in a 47-65 at Listowel, you are betting in the knowledge that the horse is probably better than his mark and in the hope that a) the race will be run to suit this time and/or b) the jockey will ride adapt to the pace scenario and ride accordingly (i.e. won't make a complete bollocks of the ride).

With regards to both a) and b) you can have a fair idea beforehand, but it only takes a 33/1 shot to go off like a scalded cat to blow the pace scenario out of the water.
 
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