Godolphin & Dubai wintering

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mrussell

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I've just been reading Well-Handicapped Horses (Jon Gibby) and he's come up with some reasoning about Godolphin horses not doing well early season:

"In my opinion Godolphin horses have a tendency to underperform in the first half of the season & I put that down to the yard's habit of wintering their best horses in Dubai. In my opinion, having to switch between the radically different climates of the UK and Dubai sets their horses back and the majority of them are rarely at the peak of their form in May and June. It is surely no coincidence that the stable invariably do particularly well in the last 2 or 3 months of the season."

Passing over the question of whether Godolphin's bought-in performers do well at all after being acquired (perhaps that's a big ask!), how do you think the author's reasoning stacks up?
 
It's not that "radically" a different climate in winter - Dubai's winter is the same time of year as ours (as is the whole Gulf region's) and, while the weather remains more like our autumn's, it's not as if it's red-hot. Gulf temps can be around 45-50 Fahrenheit on many days, not usually exceeding 70F at noon, but it's also generally cooler because it's the 'rainy season' and there are often thundery downfalls. The advantage once perceived was because the horses didn't have a seasonal 'shut off' period - they went from autumn here into a continuing autumnal heat - an Indian summer if you like - in Dubai, and came back from when the weather there was turning warmer into a similar (well, usually similar!) period here. In other words, they never went through the very strong seasonal changes that UK-based horses experienced. That meant they didn't have as much drop-off in condition during the growing of a thick winter coat, or the disadvantages of frozen gallops, thickening blood, etc. to cope with a British winter.

I suppose it'd be of some interest to do up a chart (if anyone's into that sort of thing) showing past and current success rates when not overwintering and when overwintering, but I don't think that not firing up the minute the Flat kicks off in April is any big deal. If the stats show that God was previously advantaged with early wins after overwintering and are not now, then there must be some other factor in play. All I can think of offhand would be that they've now bred themselves a type that doesn't really kickstart until a little later into the season?
 
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I've checked some stats on the RP site -- they tend not to have that many runners early, but have shown a marked increase in strike rate from July onwards.
I suppose their preference for Classic types rather that sprinters might have something to do with it ...

Interesting that the climate isn't markedly different for most of the time; however, we do have some very sharp winters compared w. Dubai.

Also, perhaps horses benefit from Winter?!
 
I'm not saying that the Gulf climate isn't markedly different overall, though, just that wintertime in any of the Gulf regions matches our own wintertime, but feels more like our autumn - thus there's not much change for horses overwintering there. They'll go from autumnal weather here to a winter in the Gulf which most resembles our own autumn, thus avoiding the UK's sharper weather.

I'm not sure if horses benefit from winter weather as such. Certainly they got few benefits this past one! What Godolphin does is take exercise guesswork out of the equation - remember past soggy, endlessly wet and rainy 'winters' here, which weren't so much cold as eternally wet, then this past extreme one with frosts and deep snow, they can keep up a steady exercise regime without their horses losing condition by being penned in artificially. Even our NH horses suffered from a lack of conditioning this season due to the long-term severe weather. Think of how many trainers felt they were presenting partially-fit animals due to not being able to get in the exercise time, and how many yards couldn't even get to the races due to ice/snow on their roads. At least in Dubai, God's chosen ones could keep their sunshine vitamins topped up and keep moving!
 
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I think Godolpin France is a good example - I'm not certain of my facts so I'll tread carefully here - but I think the Godolphin horses that Andre Fabre trains, stayed in France over the winter and he's had a fantastic strike-rate with them early and all season so far. Is this just a coincidence?
 
Same applies with Johnston probably but i'd put that down to Fabre in particular being a better trainer than Suroor.
 
The Godolphin horses do not underperform at the start of the season - they are just not good enough. Towards the end of the season when they have tried and failed in a higher class they then drop in class and start winning - not because they are suddenly in better form but because they are racing at their right level now.

Their Guineas or Derby disappointments rarely turn up later in the year winning Group 1's at a mile or 12 furlongs - but they do turn up winning Group 2/3's.
 
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