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I'm very glad Sam is firmly back in the frame - and esp nthat Denman is not being considered for the GN this year.


I think I was the first to suggest that Denman is put away for this season and brought back in September - see Post 350 :p  I'm glad Galieo and others whose opinion I respect agree with me!


Meanwhile, I'd be interested to know why on earth people who have presumably no personal experience of fibrillation of the heart, nor a dog which has died of it, seem so certain that a horse's physiology is so entirley different that there is no chance that:


1)  the fibrillation can never recur under pressure; and

2)  the horse didn't remember it happening when it started galloping again, and has no fear imprinted in its body of feelign like that agin


I find either proposition very unlikely, frankly. And that's after experiencing the condition myself; doing a lot of research on it, AND talking at some length to my vet about it. I find a few people's repeated attempts to pour scorn on what I'm saying a bit odd!


With regard to Kauto Star last season -

He was injured when he won at Ascot, and had pulled muscles (I'm not sure if that was the full extent of the problem, in retrospect I don't think it was). He presumably missed quite a bit of training because of the problem. The bruised foot came *later*, and almost put him out of the race, but he'd been doubtful or at least 'behind' before that


I had it on the word of three different people in a position to know, that KS was 'not himself' before the race; that he didn't eat up and was pacing his box, both before *and* after the Gold Cup; and that he was very off colour for a while after he got back to Ditcheat. Anyone who thinks he was beaten purely 'on merit' in the GC is imo fooling themselves. As I said at the time, I knew he was beat halfway round the first circuit. And I understand that staff (INC at the Cheltenham stables) were quite forcibly told not to discuss nor to divulge anything about the horse post-race.


Warbler: I know very well thank you what the purpose of using stats inc in racing is; I find them useful myself in certain races, esp the GN, and was winning large sums in that race thanks to following stats long before the media latched on! 


My remark:  < EC1, that stat is worthless, for one reason because the premise that horseraces always run true to stats is demonstrably false >

was in response to EC1's seeming intention to rely on what I would see as a 'false positive' - not a comment on stats per se! As should have been bleein' obvious in the context  :D



Sadly I can't watch ruk re-runs on my laptop and I never saw the ruk coverage of Denman's race at all. I was basing my remarks on a re-run quite late in the Ch4 coverage, and it was the only time that clip was shown. It had MdeB coming over the winning line and it them panned back to DCenman coming over the last - he was far to the right of the frame and the angle was not quite head-on - it was about 20%.


It clearly showed a cork-screwed jump and it struck me "Wow!' as I certainly hadn't noticed it in any of the other coverage. I'll have to wait til I can watch a re-run before saying anything more (if ever) on the subject. But - unlike my memory for names! - my visual memory is very good. And I don't see how I could have mistaken him for another horse - there was no other horse in the frame except in the far distance! For now that will have to remain one of life's little mysteries...


5 + 3 = ?
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