Golden mile goodwood

Bopedro to pick up a penalty later today ;)

Edit - just checked - the race has really cut up. A few years ago you needed to be close to 100 to make the cut but now it looks like 90 will get in so Bopedro won't need the penalty. They might just want both prizes. I hope so.
 
Surprised Orbaan is as big as 50s. 40s generally.
Same mark now, as he was 2 years ago, when he ran away with it.
Won a decent handicap at Carlisle recently, so still capable.
 
Tanlic said:
Sorry Outsider but for me about as interesting as watching paint dry........if you ever wanted to lose your balls on a race this is the type of event to put your sheckles on.
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One of the easiest races of the year to find the winner of.
 
Robicheaux said:
Surprised Orbaan is as big as 50s. 40s generally.
Same mark now, as he was 2 years ago, when he ran away with it.
Won a decent handicap at Carlisle recently, so still capable.
Click to expand...
Only 14s + 12s now. Winning jock from 2years ago De Souza booked again. Well drawn in 4. Some boxes ticked there.
Stablemate Mirsky is a silly price at 66s. Mixing it with G1 horses in France.
Will have a little ew on him too.
 
Robicheaux said:
Only 14s + 12s now. Winning jock from 2years ago De Souza booked again. Well drawn in 4. Some boxes ticked there.
Stablemate Mirsky is a silly price at 66s. Mixing it with G1 horses in France.
Will have a little ew on him too.
Click to expand...
Jason Watson rode him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One of the easiest races of the year to find the winner of.
Click to expand...

No guarantees, 'cos nothing is ever guaranteed in this game but looking back through my old files, I have backed the winner of this in:

2023 Johan
2021 Maydanny
2020 Prompting
2017 Master The World
2016 Franklin D
(which is as far back as I've looked)

as well as several placers at all sorts of prices.

I'm out at the crack of my back tomorrow so will put my head above the parapet and share my thoughts. I tried to copy my figures but it wouldn't let me saying it ran to more than 10000 characters, which is pish unless using colours and tables multiplies the 'characters' exponentially, so you'll just have to make what you can of this:

Johan bucked a trend last year when winning from a wide draw so I wouldn’t automatically rule out anything on that account but the chances are something in the lower single figures will win. The cutaways will be removed so traffic will be tight down the inside and if the front runners get to keep the pace even they’ll be hard to overtake out wider. I’ve ordered the draw by colour in three sections (1-7 green, 8-15 blue and 16-21 red). It’s no coincidence that two of the three withdrawals [to date] are drawn wide. I backed Blue For You at 16/1 immediately after it won at York so I have to be happy with that given where it sits in the table and its plum draw. I’ll also back Benacre and Urban Sprawl who have a nice combination of rating and draw. Orbaan was a big price last week but I presume part of the collapse is down to the realisation that it was going to make the cut. It won this from the same mark out of stall 2 two years ago and is worth a saver. These four against the field will do me. (Probably do for me.)

Take them in the spirit they are offered: merely sharing what I'm thinking and hoping for a result.
 
Nice written, clear reasoning, well expressed D.
Benacre is one choice of mine: looks to have the right profile and I could see him attempting to make all.
 
Trying again with the figures. I've reverted them to B&W and that seems to have done the trick, plus I've ordered them by the draw. The MON column is the 'important' one 'cos it's my own ratings. The 119+ at the top of that column is the target for winning an average renewal. (RPRs tend to be about 5lbs lower than me.) 'BO' are the best odds at the time of writing, about mid-afternoon yesterday.


Draw​
Horse​
MON
119+​
Notes​
RPR​
BO​
1 ​
Urban Sprawl​
120​
e​
112 ​
10/1​
2 ​
Silent Film​
117​
?
[120]​
111 ​
11/1​
3 ​
Classic​
117​
p +?​
114 ​
9/1​
4 ​
Orbaan​
115​
[130]​
114 ​
11/1​
5 ​
Blue For You​
123​
+​
115 ​
11/2​
6 ​
Benacre​
122​
AP​
114 ​
16/1​
7 ​
Two Tempting​
117​
p​
114 ​
16/1​
8 ​
Darkness​
116​
119​
113 ​
10/1​
9 ​
Rhoscolyn​
118​
+ s
[123]​
115 ​
25/1​
10 ​
Perotto​
118​
+?​
112 ​
8/1​
11 ​
Pisanello​
114​
113 ​
33/1​
12 ​
Bopedro​
118​
124​
113 ​
20/1​
13 ​
Holloway Boy​
119​
p?​
113 ​
8/1​
14 ​
Native Warrior​
111 ​
15 ​
Talis Evolvere​
115​
113 ​
33/1​
16 ​
Revich​
?​
120​
117 ​
66/1​
17 ​
New Image​
116 ​
​
18 ​
Mirsky​
114 ​
​
19 ​
Rebel Territory​
115​
+p​
- ​
16/1​
20 ​
Dutch Decoy​
121​
109 ​
20/1​
21 ​
Toimy Son​
116​
AP​
117 ​
25/1​
 
Thanks for that: exhaustive is the word.

As you've written, the draw will be a massive factor given the history. Along with Benacre, I'll do Silent Film, too. With this one, it depends which horse shows up: the 'slowly away' or the 'prominent'. If it's the latter - a big chance, I think. If I was to choose purely on form, it would be Holloway Boy and he'll be my third, although trap 13 looks problematical.

Incidentally, time to don your sleeping masks and press the 'sleep' button.

Apropos Benacre. The commentator has and will probably pronounce it to sound like Ben Acre. The proper pronunciation should sound like Moniker. Replace the 'Mon' bit with 'Ben' and there you have it.

It's a National Nature Reserve in North Suffolk just south of Lowestoft.

You can wake up now.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, nice place Benacre - got at decent birdy list when I was there despite it pissing down.

So far as the race is concerned, it’s just a pin job for me with Classic
 
yorick said:
Apropos Benacre. The commentator has and will probably pronounce it to sound like Ben Acre. The proper pronunciation should sound like Moniker. Replace the 'Mon' bit with 'Ben' and there you have it.

It's a National Nature Reserve in North Suffolk just south of Lowestoft.

You can wake up now.
Click to expand...

Every day is a school day ;) :) (y)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm out at the crack of my back tomorrow so will put my head above the parapet and share my thoughts.
Click to expand...

This has cost me quite a bit.

Knowing I wouldn't be able to get bets on through this morning, I made them last night and one was my second-best in the first race, Master Milliner but I only got 12/1 with no BOG. (The main bet was Get Shirty who never got a run.) SP 25/1. I feel like I've backed a loser.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This has cost me quite a bit.

Knowing I wouldn't be able to get bets on through this morning, I made them last night and one was my second-best in the first race, Master Milliner but I only got 12/1 with no BOG. (The main bet was Get Shirty who never got a run.) SP 25/1. I feel like I've backed a loser.
Click to expand...
Agree,but I did get 16/1.but I only put it in a ew super heinze.at least its a good start.
 
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