BrianH
At the Start
So, Michael Howard has resigned as Tory leader. Let the battle commence. The contenders, with Ladbroke's prices:
David Davis: 5-2
The 2001 leadership election was better than most at raising hitherto unheard-of Tories to some form of public prominence. While most in the party would no doubt regret the IDS era, the battle to succeed William Hague brought David Davis out of the murky world of the Public Accounts Committee and into the spotlight as a potential future party leader.
Having survived the Liberal Democrats' decapitation strategy, the MP for Haltemprice and Howden is now the favourite to lead the Tories into a third term in opposition. He would be likely to move the party from its fiscal caution under Mr Howard and make a direct appeal to the tax-cutting libertarian wing.
But it is not all small government and slimmed down public spending from the former member of the Territorial SAS. He is also a Eurosceptic who talks tough on crime and immigration. Frederick Forsyth has said he likes "the cut of his jib". (Oh dear - BrianH)
Liam Fox: 6-1
As the party's co-chairman for the 2005 election, alongside Lord Saatchi, Liam Fox finally managed to put behind him endlessly mistold and mangled stories about him dating the Neighbours actor turned pop star Natalie Imbruglia. Suddenly, he became a lot less interesting.
During the campaign, Dr Fox propped up Mr Howard on immigration, and - unlike Mr Davis - expressed no interest in the top job if it became vacant. He simply said he was looking forward to resting once the election was over. His cattiest comments were reserved for Mr Davis - speaking about his battle to retain his Haltemprice and Howden seat, Dr Fox remarked: "He's got matinee-idol looks, but we'll have to see."
Until Mr Howard moved him to the co-chairmanship, Dr Fox's background in medicine (he is a real doctor) made him a natural health spokesman. Since then, though, he has established himself as a social conservative and Eurosceptic. On the Monday before the election, he gave a speech warning that Tony Blair's admiration for Europe posed a threat to the future of the UK. This was interpreted in some quarters as the beginning of his leadership bid. He will campaign from the right.
David Cameron: 9/1
If the Tories choose to make a decisive break with the Major government, David Cameron will be in a strong position to be the next leader. He joined parliament in 2001 and, as the most prominent member of the so-called Notting Hill set, has the air of a clean-cut moderniser. George Osbourne, meanwhile, is spoken of as a Brown to his Blair.
Mr Cameron was head of policy co-ordination in the last shadow cabinet, but his closeness to the intellectual heart of the Howard era might become a problem if there are recriminations over the campaign. Senior Tories may not be ready for so young and inexperienced a leader as 38-year-old Mr Cameron.
Pre-election reports that he and Mr Osbourne were "deeply embarrassed" over Mr Howard's focus on immigration led some frontbenchers to express exasperation with the Notting Hill set for attacking a campaign they helped to draw up. Mr Davis, if running, would be likely to portray Mr Cameron as a continuation of the Howard era. It was one of his allies, backbencher Derek Conway, who first dismissed the clique around the former leader as the habitues of "curious little bistros" in Notting Hill.
Andrew Lansley: 10/1
A civil servant who became a parliamentarian via a spell in Tory policy units, Andrew Lansley has a reputation for being intelligent and informed. He was one of the architects of the surprise 1992 election victory, but his association with the 2001 campaign put the brakes on his frontbench career until Mr Howard made him spokesman for health.
His inclination towards dramatic reform was suggested two years ago when he made a lone call for the party to rename itself the Reform Conservatives to show that it was modernising.
Theresa May: 12/1
The first Tory since the days of Ken Clarke's Hush Puppies to be known for her shoes, Theresa May is the only woman who could plausibly run for the leadership. She horrified the Tories in 2002 when, as chairman, she said the public thought of them as the "nasty party", but insisted in the 2005 campaign that this was no longer the case.
Instead, she told GMTV: "I think people will now see, I hope, that the Conservative party is listening to them and addressing the issues that really matter to them."
Malcolm Rifkind: 12/1
A Tory moderate, Malcolm Rifkind returned to parliament for Kensington and Chelsea eight years after losing his Scottish seat to Labour. Mr Rifkind is a returning big beast, but it is not clear whether he would be interested in leading the party.
The former foreign minister has spoken in support of Blairite policies such as private finance initiatives and foundation hospitals, but said a Tory government would be needed to implement them properly.
Oliver Letwin: 16/1
Shadow chancellor since 2003, Oliver Letwin should be towards the top of his party's pecking order when it looks for a new leader, but appears to have failed to translate his seniority into authority.
This is partly because of the Liberal Democrat "decapitation" strategy, which kept him in his Dorset West constituency and out of the national campaign. Part of it is also because he is on the party's liberal wing at a time when the right is in the ascendant.
William Hague: 20/1
A well-known and respected figure, but the many gaffes during the former leader's four years at the top - from the baseball cap to the disastrous "keep the pound" campaign - mean few would want to try William Hague again.
He may also be content, for the moment, to write history books and serve in parliament as the member for Richmond.
Ken Clarke: 40/1
The biggest of the remaining Tory big beasts, the former chancellor has not ruled himself out of another leadership run. Kenneth Clarke stood for the leadership in 1997 on a supposed dream ticket with John Redwood - losing to William Hague - but, in a recent magazine interview, mischievously suggested he had not yet written his political memoirs because he was only "midway" through his political career.
He is too pro-European for the majority of Tory MPs to accept as their leader, but remains a popular and recognisable figure outside the party. He criticised Mr Howard during the campaign for calling Tony Blair a liar.
Boris Johnson: 66/1
The MP for Henley-on-Thames is probably the Tories' best known parliamentarian, but Boris Johnson has suffered in the eyes of the party over the last year. First, he was first sent to Liverpool on a tour of contrition after an editorial in the Spectator - the magazine he edits - criticised the city's "deeply unattractive psyche," when commenting on its response to the murder in Iraq of Kenneth Bigley.
Then he was dismissed from the front bench over accusations that he lied about a four-year extramarital affair with the Spectator writer Petronella Wyatt.
Mr Johnson would need to commit himself fully to Westminster if he were to mount a serious challenge at some time in the future.
Boris would be hilarious but should be 66,000/1. My choice, but not for betting purposes, would be Ken Clarke, but I'm afraid that he has no chance either. Rifkind or Letwin would be the nearest to the old "one nation" Tories, who were to the left of Blair - though probably not Brown - but I fear that the party is still not ready for a return to consensus politics. The SAS man cometh? - BrianH
David Davis: 5-2
The 2001 leadership election was better than most at raising hitherto unheard-of Tories to some form of public prominence. While most in the party would no doubt regret the IDS era, the battle to succeed William Hague brought David Davis out of the murky world of the Public Accounts Committee and into the spotlight as a potential future party leader.
Having survived the Liberal Democrats' decapitation strategy, the MP for Haltemprice and Howden is now the favourite to lead the Tories into a third term in opposition. He would be likely to move the party from its fiscal caution under Mr Howard and make a direct appeal to the tax-cutting libertarian wing.
But it is not all small government and slimmed down public spending from the former member of the Territorial SAS. He is also a Eurosceptic who talks tough on crime and immigration. Frederick Forsyth has said he likes "the cut of his jib". (Oh dear - BrianH)
Liam Fox: 6-1
As the party's co-chairman for the 2005 election, alongside Lord Saatchi, Liam Fox finally managed to put behind him endlessly mistold and mangled stories about him dating the Neighbours actor turned pop star Natalie Imbruglia. Suddenly, he became a lot less interesting.
During the campaign, Dr Fox propped up Mr Howard on immigration, and - unlike Mr Davis - expressed no interest in the top job if it became vacant. He simply said he was looking forward to resting once the election was over. His cattiest comments were reserved for Mr Davis - speaking about his battle to retain his Haltemprice and Howden seat, Dr Fox remarked: "He's got matinee-idol looks, but we'll have to see."
Until Mr Howard moved him to the co-chairmanship, Dr Fox's background in medicine (he is a real doctor) made him a natural health spokesman. Since then, though, he has established himself as a social conservative and Eurosceptic. On the Monday before the election, he gave a speech warning that Tony Blair's admiration for Europe posed a threat to the future of the UK. This was interpreted in some quarters as the beginning of his leadership bid. He will campaign from the right.
David Cameron: 9/1
If the Tories choose to make a decisive break with the Major government, David Cameron will be in a strong position to be the next leader. He joined parliament in 2001 and, as the most prominent member of the so-called Notting Hill set, has the air of a clean-cut moderniser. George Osbourne, meanwhile, is spoken of as a Brown to his Blair.
Mr Cameron was head of policy co-ordination in the last shadow cabinet, but his closeness to the intellectual heart of the Howard era might become a problem if there are recriminations over the campaign. Senior Tories may not be ready for so young and inexperienced a leader as 38-year-old Mr Cameron.
Pre-election reports that he and Mr Osbourne were "deeply embarrassed" over Mr Howard's focus on immigration led some frontbenchers to express exasperation with the Notting Hill set for attacking a campaign they helped to draw up. Mr Davis, if running, would be likely to portray Mr Cameron as a continuation of the Howard era. It was one of his allies, backbencher Derek Conway, who first dismissed the clique around the former leader as the habitues of "curious little bistros" in Notting Hill.
Andrew Lansley: 10/1
A civil servant who became a parliamentarian via a spell in Tory policy units, Andrew Lansley has a reputation for being intelligent and informed. He was one of the architects of the surprise 1992 election victory, but his association with the 2001 campaign put the brakes on his frontbench career until Mr Howard made him spokesman for health.
His inclination towards dramatic reform was suggested two years ago when he made a lone call for the party to rename itself the Reform Conservatives to show that it was modernising.
Theresa May: 12/1
The first Tory since the days of Ken Clarke's Hush Puppies to be known for her shoes, Theresa May is the only woman who could plausibly run for the leadership. She horrified the Tories in 2002 when, as chairman, she said the public thought of them as the "nasty party", but insisted in the 2005 campaign that this was no longer the case.
Instead, she told GMTV: "I think people will now see, I hope, that the Conservative party is listening to them and addressing the issues that really matter to them."
Malcolm Rifkind: 12/1
A Tory moderate, Malcolm Rifkind returned to parliament for Kensington and Chelsea eight years after losing his Scottish seat to Labour. Mr Rifkind is a returning big beast, but it is not clear whether he would be interested in leading the party.
The former foreign minister has spoken in support of Blairite policies such as private finance initiatives and foundation hospitals, but said a Tory government would be needed to implement them properly.
Oliver Letwin: 16/1
Shadow chancellor since 2003, Oliver Letwin should be towards the top of his party's pecking order when it looks for a new leader, but appears to have failed to translate his seniority into authority.
This is partly because of the Liberal Democrat "decapitation" strategy, which kept him in his Dorset West constituency and out of the national campaign. Part of it is also because he is on the party's liberal wing at a time when the right is in the ascendant.
William Hague: 20/1
A well-known and respected figure, but the many gaffes during the former leader's four years at the top - from the baseball cap to the disastrous "keep the pound" campaign - mean few would want to try William Hague again.
He may also be content, for the moment, to write history books and serve in parliament as the member for Richmond.
Ken Clarke: 40/1
The biggest of the remaining Tory big beasts, the former chancellor has not ruled himself out of another leadership run. Kenneth Clarke stood for the leadership in 1997 on a supposed dream ticket with John Redwood - losing to William Hague - but, in a recent magazine interview, mischievously suggested he had not yet written his political memoirs because he was only "midway" through his political career.
He is too pro-European for the majority of Tory MPs to accept as their leader, but remains a popular and recognisable figure outside the party. He criticised Mr Howard during the campaign for calling Tony Blair a liar.
Boris Johnson: 66/1
The MP for Henley-on-Thames is probably the Tories' best known parliamentarian, but Boris Johnson has suffered in the eyes of the party over the last year. First, he was first sent to Liverpool on a tour of contrition after an editorial in the Spectator - the magazine he edits - criticised the city's "deeply unattractive psyche," when commenting on its response to the murder in Iraq of Kenneth Bigley.
Then he was dismissed from the front bench over accusations that he lied about a four-year extramarital affair with the Spectator writer Petronella Wyatt.
Mr Johnson would need to commit himself fully to Westminster if he were to mount a serious challenge at some time in the future.
Boris would be hilarious but should be 66,000/1. My choice, but not for betting purposes, would be Ken Clarke, but I'm afraid that he has no chance either. Rifkind or Letwin would be the nearest to the old "one nation" Tories, who were to the left of Blair - though probably not Brown - but I fear that the party is still not ready for a return to consensus politics. The SAS man cometh? - BrianH
