Goodwood Day 2

Irish Stamp

Irish Stamp

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Thought I'd start this one early.

Only really two standout bets for me tomorrow - Ghanaati in the Sussex Stakes at 5/2 and an interesting runner for Paul Cole in the Vintage Stakes - Mata Keranjang who was third in a listed race for unraced 2yos in France last time race. Often won by a decent horse (Dahlia, Miswaki, Pas De Reponse and New Girlfriend amongst them) the runner-up in 2009's renewal came out and claimed the Group 2 Prix Robert-Papin at Maissons-Laffite yesterday beating the previously unbeaten (3 runs and 3 wins) Aga-Khan colt Siyouni.

Can get 20/1 about Mata Keranjang.
 
Jamie said:
Looks like me and Gamla weren't the only ones...
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My thoughts are on your website Jamie in the restricted area. I see him placing with a chance of winning. Not a 16/1 shot. I make him about 13/2. It's a similar method to the one used to find Strike The Tiger and jealous Again (although the less said about Aegean the better). In this case though we're dealing with turf rather than A/W times, and I've had to try and get a handle on the turf times by using the A/W without being able to really have a stab at the variance. Basically he's run a G/F time on ground supposidly G/S. I'm still struggling to believe that Deauville is faster than Goodwood though, but have had to take the standards on trust.

The only explanation for the performance is the ground wasn't G/S, or that the horses involved are particularly fast. The turf to A/W ratio is in keeping with what you'd expect for G/F at 2.85% and this probably holds the key.


I'll spare the maths and the method (and using previous winners without a goign correction is crdue) but this is how I'd be tempted to forecast the projected time he's capable of

Strategic Prince = 86.02
Rio De la Plata = 86.05
Naheef = 86.32
Orizaba = 86.54
Mata Keranjang = 86.89
Shamadahl = 87.41
Dublin = 87.58
No Excuse Needed = 87.70
Lucky Story = 87.95
Sir Percy = 88.66

That Simouyi was seemingly beaten on merit, (1.5L's in second place) and had probably been Frances best 2yo going into July holds the form key. It points to Mata Keranjang already being about Gp2 on his debut run and should improve with any luck. That Deauville race has been used before of course as indeed Paul Cole normally has a decent 2yo somewhere
 
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Aegean runs tonight by the way Warbs in the Schuylerville Stakes against a very nippy Steve Asmussen filly - Hot Dixie Chick.
 
Good write up, DO. Agree with you about Baddam - I was there and backed him last year, which was the start of a 'glorious' day :p
 
The other one I like in the first is Dunlop's horse, who seems to be on the upgrade. It could easily be overbet bearing in mind the trainer though.
 
Impressive stuff from Xtension there. Looked like he was going nowhere entering the last couple of furlongs. Does no harm to the Coventry form either.
 
Good call IS - did you back him each way?

Strange there was so much money for the Godolphin horse. When will they have a half decent two year old?
 
Anyone any ideas why the rest of the jockeys gave the front 2 so much rope in the first?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Baddam is a serious drifter at Betfair. Maybe he isn't ready yet.
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Not off an inch. I knew my fate within the first four furlongs. Last year, Murtagh had Baddam up with the pace from the off. Hughes started off in mid-division and gradually worked his way back through the field. :mad:

I wonder if they're trying to get into the Cesarewitch off 8-0.

Well done and hard lines IS and those who latched on to Mata Keranjang. The horse gave me a great run for my small interest.
 
Well done Mata Keranjang backers that was a nice bit of value there.

Regarding Baddam DO, sorry to see your chances gone so early on as you said you knew what was going on, maybe try unearth your money back next time there is support for the horse?.
 
Will Jamie get a ban for that ride on Alsace Lorraine?

He gave the horse three sharp ones in quick succession close home, not giving the horse time to respond.

Hughsey looked a bit unlucky but, as we know, if you stick to the rail at Gooders that's always likely.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Impressive stuff from Xtension there. Looked like he was going nowhere entering the last couple of furlongs. Does no harm to the Coventry form either.
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Yes and no, looks like he needs a mile already to be honest and the Hannon horse could simply have beaten a stayer - admittidly freakishly easily!!:lol:
 
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