Grand National 2023

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
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Well, I backed three in the Becher and was keeping an eye out for Fortescue but from about fence three or four I couldn't take my eyes off Ashtown Lad. That was a super display of how to jump those fences. Got to be on the radar for the big one.
 
Another for the radar:

Quick Wave (won the 3m5f at Sandown) - did she ever come out of a canter at any point? It's a race usually targeted by a few so the form is often strong. She's hacked up off 140 and will go up at least 7lbs so they could put her away with Aintree in mind but the temptation to run her at Chepstow off 'just' a 4lbs penalty must be strong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another for the radar:

Quick Wave (won the 3m5f at Sandown) - did she ever come out of a canter at any point? It's a race usually targeted by a few so the form is often strong. She's hacked up off 140 and will go up at least 7lbs so they could put her away with Aintree in mind but the temptation to run her at Chepstow off 'just' a 4lbs penalty must be strong.
Click to expand...

Quick Wave raised 9lbs for her win. If she goes to Chepstow she'll be 5lbs well in (plus whatever she had in hand).

But 149 looks a very nice mark with Aintree in mind...
 
NY would never have come on to my radar because it was a 7yo.

You might remember in my pinstickers' guide I wrote:

7yo and not obviously well handicapped but if he turns up next year off a similar mark he could be interesting.

I reckon it's now fair to say the latter half of the quote would be correct!
 
Desert Orchid said:
NY would never have come on to my radar because it was a 7yo.

You might remember in my pinstickers' guide I wrote:

7yo and not obviously well handicapped but if he turns up next year off a similar mark he could be interesting.

I reckon it's now fair to say the latter half of the quote would be correct!
Click to expand...

They rewrote the rules with him, meaning others will now copy
 
I'm not so sure, granger. 7yos have tried for decades and he bust a very long 'established' stat/trend.

I do accept more will try but I'm not convinced they'll be successful.

Then again, who knows, maybe a dozen years from now we'll be seeing 7yos as a positive in the race. After all, wasn't there a time when French-breds couldn't win certain races?
 
I thought Franco de Port is interesting. 156 not too bad - he was off 153 when Longhouse Poet (very well handicapped at the time) beat him narrowly in the Thyestes last season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wonder if they're trying to get Galvin's mark down enough to give him a chance in this.
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The horse is doing it all by himself, without any need for sleight-of-hand by connections, imo.

I would give him a National entry, and run him in the Cross Country to see if it rekindles his interest, because he looks like a horse that’s rapidly falling out of love with racing.
 
Grasshopper said:
The horse is doing it all by himself, without any need for sleight-of-hand by connections, imo.

I would give him a National entry, and run him in the Cross Country to see if it rekindles his interest, because he looks like a horse that’s rapidly falling out of love with racing.
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I think a lot of National horses have had his kind of profile down the years: show good form, not quite make the grade at the very top levels and then run modestly for a season or two which sees their mark falling, then, lo and behold, they pop up at Aintree and run a big race.

Maybe I'm just clinging to an idea I mentioned last season; that I was disappointed with how they were campaigning him. I'd hoped that after winning the NH Chase they'd have campaigned him for the National the following season, when getting him in off 150 would have been a skoosh to achieve, but they aimed for the top, won a couple of G1s and got his mark up to 168. Maybe the Cheltenham Gold Cup has sickened him. Maybe they realised he was unlikely ever to win it. I don't imagine he'll be dropped much from his current 166 unless he comes out and runs badly again so they might be looking at the 2024 National.

And maybe, as you say, he's no longer interested.

I'm really just thinking/guessing aloud.
 
Gaillard Du Mesnil has an ideal profile now.
Rated mid 150s , cannot get a penalty for today's win .
Will stay galloping and a safe jumper with a touch of class and handicap experience.
Will WPM and Joe take the bait ?
 
edgt said:
Gaillard Du Mesnil has an ideal profile now.
Rated mid 150s , cannot get a penalty for today's win .
Will stay galloping and a safe jumper with a touch of class and handicap experience.
Will WPM and Joe take the bait ?
Click to expand...
I saw it was put up on racing tv or sporting life in an ew yankee for the festival for the NH chase at 11/4 before today.
 
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