Grand Prix de Paris

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
Reliable Man and Treasure Beach are 11/4 joint favourites.
Seville is 4/1, Bubble Chic is 8/1, Meandre is 10/1 and Markmanship is 20/1. Kreem is 25/1

A few questions. Who is Kreem?

Can I safely eliminate him?

Is Markmanship well thought of at home? I thought he was. What happened the last day? Going, track?

Meandre looks overpitched in this race. I know he is a potential Fabre sleeper, but he has had a lot of runs to show his mettle, and he hasn't been pulling up trees. Am I mad?

So that leaves me with Bubble Chic and the big three. There is very little way of knowing which form is stronger, and I would be all over Bubble Chic to make up 3/4 of a length, but his breeding doesn't scream 12f.

And I have absolutely no idea which of the two main Ballydoyle horses is the better, probably Treasure Beach, but the 11/4 -> 4/1 price differential reflects that.

I am thinking of not having a bet.
 
I'm dutching the two Fabre runners - he's won 10 of the last 22 runnings of the race - I figure he knows what he's doing and smell some value.
 
Bar the Bull said:
There is very little way of knowing which form is stronger,
Click to expand...

The Greffulhe form clearly gives Reliable Man an edge imo. Pour Moi improved at Epsom but he would have won that race by a street if he'd been ridden closer to the pace. The small field and possible lack of pace puts me off backing the Jockey Club winner though.
 
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It's more trustworthy than the Curragh form for me. If we presume Carlton House doesn't stay 12f that form is all about AOB horses - and I'm not convinced by any of them away from Ireland.
 
Treasure Beach is a lovely progressive type. Whatever beats him will earn it. Possibly vulnerable to something with a real turn of foot. Much will depend on the pace of the race in what is not a big field.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I think Reliable Man is open to more improvement and is the most likely winner but I respect the Ballydoyle pair.

Meandre has been laid out for this and his last win is jaw dropping given his passage in the straight, Fabre isn't running him here for a laugh:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1As6WpbThc
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I don’t suppose he is, but by the same token I don’t suppose he’s running Kreem for a laugh either… doesn’t mean either will win it though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcJmimjLLAQ
 
I wonder how much better than Meandre Fabre thinks Pour Moi is? Given that Meandre has just put away the best of the rest of the 3yo middle distances colts.
 
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