Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,012
Race of the day, bar none.
The first two in the Barka (Shaneshill and L'Ami Serge) re-oppose, but I will be backing Blue Dragon against them (introduced at around the 7/2 mark in early trading).
Blue Dragon has yet to conclusively prove he stays this trip, and on that basis, he looks short-enough. He has also been beaten both time he has run at 3m+; firstly by Ptit Zig (re-opposes today) in this race last year, and in the Prix D'Automne in November, when PU'd behind Alex De Larreyda, but I think (hope!) there is mitigation for both runs.
In the former, he was trying 3m for the first time, in what was a truly-run race. Although ultimately beaten a couple of lengths in receipt of weight, Blue Dragon was the only prominent-runner to finish remotely near the business-end of the race, and it was probably a very smart performance against a talented horse, in the circumstances.
His defeat against Alex De Larrayda was too bad to be true, and is the only time he has failed to give his running at Auteuil. I'm prepared to ignore it. Other than falling once (1/5F), he has suffered only two other defeats in his 15 hurdles outings; both times to the top-class Device, conceding him weight on each occassion. Device finished close-up to both Shaneshill and L'Ami Serge in the Barka (should have won the race, imo), and I'd easily have Blue Dragon the equal of the Barka runners, in class terms. Given his overall record here, I'm prepared to give Blue Dragon's stamina another chance today.
In the Prix Alain Du Breil (French Triumph), Bon De Coeur is a warm-order, and is trading at a shade odds-on, with Mullins' raider Bapaume around an 11/8 shot.
Both have clear chances, however, I'll row-in with Prince Ali, who was a convincing winner of the Prix Questerabad on the Grande-Steeplechase card. Bapaume is clearly very smart, and BDC commands maximum respect, but Prince Ali is very closely-matched with her on lines through D'Entree De Jeu - albeit he has to concede the allowance. Regardless, I think this is a three-horse-race and a two-horse-market, and at around 9/1, I figure Prince Ali is by far the best value bet of the three.
The first two in the Barka (Shaneshill and L'Ami Serge) re-oppose, but I will be backing Blue Dragon against them (introduced at around the 7/2 mark in early trading).
Blue Dragon has yet to conclusively prove he stays this trip, and on that basis, he looks short-enough. He has also been beaten both time he has run at 3m+; firstly by Ptit Zig (re-opposes today) in this race last year, and in the Prix D'Automne in November, when PU'd behind Alex De Larreyda, but I think (hope!) there is mitigation for both runs.
In the former, he was trying 3m for the first time, in what was a truly-run race. Although ultimately beaten a couple of lengths in receipt of weight, Blue Dragon was the only prominent-runner to finish remotely near the business-end of the race, and it was probably a very smart performance against a talented horse, in the circumstances.
His defeat against Alex De Larrayda was too bad to be true, and is the only time he has failed to give his running at Auteuil. I'm prepared to ignore it. Other than falling once (1/5F), he has suffered only two other defeats in his 15 hurdles outings; both times to the top-class Device, conceding him weight on each occassion. Device finished close-up to both Shaneshill and L'Ami Serge in the Barka (should have won the race, imo), and I'd easily have Blue Dragon the equal of the Barka runners, in class terms. Given his overall record here, I'm prepared to give Blue Dragon's stamina another chance today.
In the Prix Alain Du Breil (French Triumph), Bon De Coeur is a warm-order, and is trading at a shade odds-on, with Mullins' raider Bapaume around an 11/8 shot.
Both have clear chances, however, I'll row-in with Prince Ali, who was a convincing winner of the Prix Questerabad on the Grande-Steeplechase card. Bapaume is clearly very smart, and BDC commands maximum respect, but Prince Ali is very closely-matched with her on lines through D'Entree De Jeu - albeit he has to concede the allowance. Regardless, I think this is a three-horse-race and a two-horse-market, and at around 9/1, I figure Prince Ali is by far the best value bet of the three.
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