Great Voltigeur & Rest Of Day 1

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Aragorn

At the Start
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Apr 16, 2009
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A fascinating race with a lot of improving 3yo's in the field.

The big horse Harbinger looks likely to go off favourite on the back of his win the Gordon stakes, which Stoute claims he would have needed. He looks to be a supreme traveller who can quicken and I would expect him to go off favourite. He will need to improve on that last performance as i'm not sure the form amounts too much but it would not be a surprise if he did.

Alwaary has improved every time he has run this season culminating in an excellent fourth in the King George last time. 10f was too short for him the time before and he has to be considered one of the top 5 middle distance 3yo's on the form he has shown so far. Whether that will be good enough to win this I am not sure.

Outside the two principals I think Father Time, Mastery and Jukebox Jury all have claims. However, Father time and Mastery have to concede weight all round and that may be no easy task, particularly for Mastery who I think has place claims but seems to lack a turn of foot. Jukeboy jury is another who lacks a turn of foot despite travelling well in his races but lacks nothing in heart as he showed in the rose of Lancaster stakes on his latest run.

A difficult one to assess as most of the field is improving. Alwaary really impressed me with the way he quickened when he won the cocked hat stakes but I think he may have been flattered that day and despite his King George fourth being an excellent effort he couldn't pick up Ask that day and I think Harbinger is better than that horse. Whether he is better than his two Ballymacoll stablemates remains to be seen and although you can pick holes in his form thus far I think if he improves from his last run he is going to be difficult to beat.

1st - Harbinger
2nd - Alwaary
3rd - Jukebox Jury

My only bet tomorrow will be a fair sized treble on Harbinger, Poet's Voice and Sea The Stars.
 
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I was really taken with Harbinger the last day....in terms of his ability and his appearance. I think he will be very hard to beat.
 
Harbinger is too short on form alone; as likely as he is to come on from his win in the Gordon (particularly impressive in the way he settled and travelled in a muddling race), I certainly wouldn't be rushing to get 2's about him. That said, I'll probably oppose him in the market tommorrow rather than lay him.

Alwaary sets a decent standard on his King George form and looks around about the right price to me at 2's whilst Father Time was impressive in the King Edward VII and is obviously open to improvement. The bare form of the Ascot race looks rather uninspiring though, and I'm struggling to get a grip on his profile as a whole to be honest.

The one that interests me most at current prices is Jukebox Jury. I've never been totally convinced by Campanologist, but there is little doubt he is a genuine Group 2/3 horse at his best and I see no reason to suggest he was below his best at Haydock (ridden prominently over 1m2f suits him down to the ground in my book), and he was fairly readily beaten by the Johnston horse. On that form 7/1 looks a very generous price, despite having to take his stamina on trust to some extent - though both his pedigree and style of running suggest it should be within his compass. Looks the value call to me.
 
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Galileo said:
I was really taken with Harbinger the last day....in terms of his ability and his appearance. I think he will be very hard to beat.
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I'd agree with that. I think 2/1 is more than fair, and whilst I am a fan of Alwaary, I think Harbinger has a lot more improvement to come.
 
Harbinger is very much the type of horse that I do well taking on and I'll be against him today. I didn't like the way he flashed his tail when hit with the whip at Goodwood and as others have said, the form isn't the strongest given the lack of pace. I acknowledge that Harbinger could improve on that form, and could appreciate the stronger pace, and could be as good as what Stoute's gallop watchers seem to think, but at 2/1 he's priced as if those 'coulds' are already proven.

Hopefully Alwaary will have more use of him made than at Ascot. That race didn't get to the bottom of him and I've no doubt that Alwaary will be a strong stayer at this trip, if this is a test, I think he could run the finish out of a couple of less stout stayers in the 2 sons of Dansili, Harbinger and Father Time. My formbook says a reproduction of the King George form would have won or dead-heated in 8 of the last 10 Voltigeurs so I am happy to take 9/4. This is the race I'm looking forward to today.

Good luck to all.
 
Im wondering how this will be run no real pacemaker i wonder if they will let dettori rider them to sleep!
 
I think Dubawi was fine on fast ground, maybe slightly better with some ease, just not the road they produced for his Guineas.

Big race for Godolphin, what with the rest of their 2 year olds in mind.
 
jairducochetfan said:
They went far too fast in the Acomb, Poet's Voice ran pretty well in the circumstances I thought.
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The winner has now beaten Poet's Voice in his two starts.....I wouldnt fancy him to reverse form particularly given the probability of further improvement from the winner.
 
Galileo said:
The winner has now beaten Poet's Voice in his two starts.....I wouldnt fancy him to reverse form particularly given the probability of further improvement from the winner.
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Yeah that's fair enough, I think the winner will prefer 1m+ more too, but I think the likelihood is that Poet's Voice is better than he showed here and still a player in the top 2yo races. He had many off the bridle (including the winner) from a fair way out and the winner was able to make his ground cheaply as the leaders tired.
 
I think the 2nd horse Emerald Commander travel better than the winner , and with a bit more give in the ground could progress. Mata Keranjang did not do much for the Vintage Stakes form if he ran to his best.
 
Galileo said:
Monitor Closely skates in....Alwaary and Harbinger run stinkers.
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:lol:

This is how I had them last night

Monitor Closely = 96.91
Mastery = 96.73
Alwaary = 96.33
Jukebox Jury = 95.36
Father Time = 91.32
Harbinger = 85.00

Nah...... I thought, that's a blanket finish, and where as I've never recorded anything for Harbinger to suggest he's remotely as good as the hype, I just figured I'd got a rogue sample!!! should I lay Harbinger the place? No. Should I even venture a few shekels on Monitor (something I normally do when my figures offer an insight that the price suggests it's worth trying it). No I decided.

Golden rule really!!! (and I fall for it every year at least 3 or 4 times every year) trust your figures and forget all 'the talk', a stopwatch is neutral. No point in spending the time making ratings if you aren't prepared to back one when you finally come across something the market appears to have all wrong. I think i was probably put off by the fact that Monitor got his figure when finishing third, and didn't really have the bare form having had a few races to advetise his credentials now. I did note that he'd earned the comment as 'running on same pace' in his races on quite a few occasions, and that perhaps this hinted at a longer trip being what was needed, but for reasons I can't explain, decided to sit and watch

Bugger!!!!!

Congratulations to 'Kauto' anyway, and I think John Francome half picked him too (albeit that it was one of those typical Francome picks - "He should be shorter than that" - which just stops short of being a selection).

I've just checked my notes and there's a lovely block capital entry on my finals elections that reads MONITOR CLOSELY e/w with a lovely line struck through it and a comment "only paying 2 places the bastards"
 
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