Greece

Whatever happens the implications for the rest of the Eurozone is massive - my mother lives in Cyprus and since she moved out 10 years ago the cost of living in the South (Greek) side has forced many businesses out and expats to return whilst Russsian oligarchs move in with their "families". Luckily she has now moved to the North (Turkish) side where costs are a fraction of the Greek side but they suffer from living under Turkish rule with power cuts etc regularly as those in charge have no money to pay the mainland.

Best thing the UK did was not to be part of the Euro - worst thing the UK did was join the Eurozone.....
 
Ballydoyle said:
Whatever happens the implications for the rest of the Eurozone is massive - my mother lives in Cyprus and since she moved out 10 years ago the cost of living in the South (Greek) side has forced many businesses out and expats to return whilst Russsian oligarchs move in with their "families". Luckily she has now moved to the North (Turkish) side where costs are a fraction of the Greek side but they suffer from living under Turkish rule with power cuts etc regularly as those in charge have no money to pay the mainland.

Best thing the UK did was not to be part of the Euro - worst thing the UK did was join the Eurozone.....
Click to expand...

Not joining the euro was perfectly logical to any minister who understands economics but it was still a fine call by both sides of the house. Possibly the one big issue where there was quite a degree of cross party unity.

There will be an accommodation with Greece and then there will be demands from Spain Italy and Portugal. And then voters across the Eurozone, who didnt know it already, will realise that integration is a failed concept and that the eu simply hasn't and doesn't know what it's doing. The whole project needs to be rolled back big time and that will be the demand.
 
I don't think the EU as in institution is quite as vulnerable as Clive reckons, but currency union is surely on its last legs.

The German Government is, rightly, refusing to accommodate the Syriza expectation of a further 50% write-down, because as Clive points out, the rest of the PIGS will immediately demand a similar accommodation. Merkel has zero room for manoeuvre on this matter, because German citizens refuse to fund (exceedingly generous) retirement plans that allow Greek citizens to put their feet-up several years ahead of their Teutonic counterparts, and equally, they should not be expected to pay for the profligacy and financial mismanagement of their Southern-European partners.

There is only one way that the Euro can survive and prosper, and that's if there is full fiscal consolidation across the zone. Unfortunately, the very strong likelihood is that sovereign European governments would find it impossible to get such a vast secession of power, past their respective electorates.

Maintaining the status-quo is, in my view, merely postponing the inevitable. The Euro would have had a chance if individual Nation-states had stuck rigidly to the rules of operation, but these were either flagrantly abused, or ignored completely, from Day One. Nationhood still matters in each of the individual jurisdictions, and the belief that Federal control and distribution along the lines practiced in the US would ever be acceptable, is/was pie-in-the-sky nonsense. The Germans simply refuse to bust their balls grafting, to fund fecklessness and idleness on the part of people with whom they have no real affiliation with or obligation to.

Currency Union has, to all intents, already failed, and I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that the quicker it is killed-off, the better.
 
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As an institution it will survive but should be scaled back considerably. The coming questions will be about the cost and administration. That is where I think t is vulnerable.

The Greek party have promised to "hire thousands of civil servants" . It's incredible isnt it? No question of whether they are actually required or not? Just create non jobs at German tax payers expense? What the fck?

it wasn't just the responsibility of the nation states to stick to it (although that should go without saying) but the eu to govern it. They didnt. They failed then and will again.
 
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It's a fascinating subject Clive, but I thought the author might have gone into a bit more depth and speculate about some of the possibilities rather than just calling the Greeks names (anyone can do that). Might the Euro split north and south? Is Germany the outlier that has caused the problem? Could the PIGS have run a single devalued currency if they weren't trapped having to keep up with Germnay and the north? What would be the timetable for a withdrawal? how practical will it be? what steps would need to be taken? what will a collapse look like? All I took from it is that the author thinks its the beginning of the end (which is hardly original) relies on linking third party articles to make a case they can't be bothered to articulate themselves, and that they don't like Greeks

Not sure what it's supposed to be in truth?

Is it diary piece?
Is it comment piece? a bit like 'the Sun says'
Is it just a paragraph of narrative (a bit like facebook?)
or is it supposed to be showcasing insight and analysis?
 
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being sarcastic ? again?

frankly there is no "name calling" on my piece or the links. "arrogant" would be a far description of the greek behaviour though. Anyone care to disagree?

"come on germany... pay for our civil servants to do nothing in non jobs which they will probably never turn up to and retire on big pensions at 55"

the links give everyone the information they need to know. Unlike some, i would rather link to proper economists and let them have their say rather than come up with some dreamt up twaddle from the internet
 
Well if that's what you think, fair enough. It just comes across as name calling abuse,

"Frankly I despise Greeces stance. The euro is in my opinion a failed concept but whilst a large proportion of the blame will lie with the incompetent management of the whole structure, Greece is a disgrace in its denial and arrogance".

like I said, 'The Sun says'. Having said that, the Sun is a popularly read paper.

As regards using external experts and linking, there's clearly nothing wrong with doing that, quite the opposite, it's normally considered a good thing, but I'm usually more impressed when the author is able to appropriately introduce their contributions and marshal their arguments to demonstrate that they have an understanding and command of the arguments for and against, (whilst adding their own insight now and then, but not the point where it becomes over powering opinion), it just reads more academically. The article can then appear as a linked footnote. It just instills me with more confidence in the author who is otherwise saying "I can't stand Greece, and here's an article that someone else has written which I can't be bothered to really introduce you to the relevance of"
 
the blog is a promotional tool for my business. It is not an academic exercise. the links suffice if others want more detail. . Alan Greenspan and four leading economists (not that you will find many outside of Broadmoor who would describe Greece as a success story).

the last thing my clients and potential clients want to read is pages of waffle . some should take note of that...
 
That's why I asked? People can use comment for promotion for all sorts of different ways. You can provoke and challenge, or you can go the other way and be insipidly anodyne, with all stops in between. If you're bold enough, you can always go contrarian. One of the more amusing (and well argued articles I read on this once) I think came from Liam Halligan, mischievously arguing that Germany needed to be ejected from the Euro

I'm reminded a little of a comment made to me once by a Professor which I can't quote verbatim but can paraphrase as it might take in aspects of what I'm saying

"I'm not interested in your opinions. I'm not interested in whether or not you're even capable of independent thought. You're only a Masters student, why would I be interested in what you think? What I want to see is whether you have a command of what genuine experts have contributed to the academic literature and can coherently marshal their work appropriately in support of an argument. Can you introduce the most salient aspects and use others to challenge them and then conclude"

Now I'd be the first person to accept a traditional academic piece is borderline unreadable; death by a thousand citations every other sentance, imho (not that, that counts for anything - even if my money did) it's anti-reading. I also accept that brevity is important to a blog in this context, and that it's very unlikely that you're going to add anything new to the body of work regarding Greek debt and the Euro. Therefore what you're really trying to demonstrate is a good contemporary knowledge, showcase that you're plugged in with the developing picture, and hopefully putting across an engaging personality who is able to converse with their readership. You might of course be prepared to make some forecasts too in the knowledge that you can establish credibility if your proved correct (and airbrush them if you're wrong)

My guess however is that your clients would be more impressed if they could see you had a command of the issues rather than simply telling them that you hate Greece. I think you could do this without going tabloid.

Back to the old professor again.

"I'm not interested in whether or not you hate Greece. Why would I care which nation state of Europe you hate today? I want to see that you understand what the implications of Greek debt are for us, and how you could do something to shelter me from their affects"
 
I shouldn't laugh Clive, but I just noticed that "welcome to our newest member" is someone called 'The Grecian' (it's not me having a laugh)

Most new members don't become active, but I trust it's nothing to do with you announcing that you hate them for their arrogance
 
I'll accept that you didn't say you hated (largely because you didn't) but whereas me and you can argue on a board like this, a blog doesn't normally permit you that luxury so the perception is always in the eye of the reader and that means nuance. I realise you might want to lend your blog an edge and being forthright and dogmatic is part of the appeal.

"Frankly I despise Greeces stance. The euro is in my opinion a failed concept but whilst a large proportion of the blame will lie with the incompetent management of the whole structure, Greece is a disgrace in its denial and arrogance".

To my untutored eyes it looks very UKIPy, and a bit of a turn off
 
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