Guineas Meeting - supporting card

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gus

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The supporting races at Newmarket over the next two days are full of interest.

On Sunday, Mr Lupton is back in handicap company for the first time since last June when he beat subsequent Stewards' Cup winner, Dancing Star in a big field at York with the pair well clear of the third. He's run very respectably in Group races since, particularly when a good fifth in the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock behind Quiet Reflection. His seasonal reappearance at Bath was satisfactory - he faced a stiff task trying to give weight to Muthmir and finished an honourable second - and he's now down to a mark of 107, only 5lbs above his winning mark at York. Only Hills have prices up at present and he's 12/1 with them which looks decent and there's a fair chance someone will offer better than that.

I mentioned last week that the form of last season's Zetland Stakes is working out well and Cunco went on to boost it even further by landing Sandown's Classic Trial. Permian, the Zetland third, runs over the same C&D in tomorrow's Newmarket Stakes and will take some pegging back under Ryan Moore. The form of last season's race is backed up by a really excellent time rating and Permian has two solid runs to his credit already this season, one in good handicap company and the other when just caught close home by Cracksman at Epsom last week. He gets 3lbs from the favourite tomorrow, Khalidi, and can turn him over.
 
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Washington DC ran right up to his best on his seasonal debut and, with improvement expected for the prep run, is surely too big at the currrent 7/1. Plenty of pace around him too, so a split field shouldn't pose a problem.
Price is shot to bits now, but I believe Ballet Concerto won a piece more comfortably than the margin allows at Donny, and ought to continue his progression today.
A Ryan Moore field day looms large.
 
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Anyone who fancies Barney Roy in the Guineas today should consider backing Via Serendipity in the last at around 8/1. Ran fifth in the Greenham, beaten just over eight lengths at levels and runs here off 92. Not chucked-in but I'd have had him shorter than 8s.
 
I like Next Stage in the opener today. Typical Godophin probably-better-than-a-handicapper-running-in-a-handicap....
 
Desert Orchid said:
I like Next Stage in the opener today. Typical Godophin probably-better-than-a-handicapper-running-in-a-handicap....
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Fvck. Second again. Jim Crowley champion jockey? Champion clown. Made his move a furlong too early. I await the sectionals with interest. If they tell me I'm seeing it wrong I'll be the first to apologise to the jockey but my immediate thoughts are that Next Stage is a winner beaten. He'll go up for that too and might have difficulty winning next time.
 
Aim to Please worth a look in the Dahlia tomorrow. She's won over 9f and Timeform have her on the same rating as the favourite. 20s at Stan James, 16s elsewhere.
 
Ignorance at its very best from Wexford running a 2 mile hurdle due 5 minutes before the Guineas and Thirsk 5 minutes after..........people want to take in what is about to happen and what did happen before and after watching another race.

Those in power need a boot in the balls for terrible timing
 
I'm interested in Cosmeapolitan as a horse to follow this year and he makes his seasonal reappearance in the first race on today's card. He won over hurdles in December but he wasn't persevered with thereafter and I suspect connections think that there's some mileage in his handicap mark on the Flat (95). He was an eyecatcher in a very valuable sponsored race over this course and distance last October after which I wrote this about Simon Rowlands' view of the performance:

"Also interesting are his comments on Cosmeapolitan's run on Friday. I backed the horse and thought he ran an eyecatching race, held up out the back then making excellent and quite rapid headway from about 4f out which briefly looked like swamping the rest for pace before his run petered out approaching the final furlong.

I'm not sure I'd have particularly blamed the jockey, John Fahy, but Prufrock describes it as a "notably inefficient ride" and I've looked up his comments on Twitter where he goes further still: "sectionals show that 9th-placed Cosmeapolitan ran the fastest and second-fastest furlongs of any in the 12f handicap...absolutely braindead ride...slowly-run. Held up several lengths back. Made all ground up in space of 2f. Predictably weakened. Totally inefficient."

These are quite outspoken comments, by the standards of racing journalism. They make refreshing reading. But the great thing about them is that I'm sure Prufrock would say they're not "comments" at all but statements of fact with the data available to back them up. They bring a new dimension to analysis of horse races and how they're run."

 
Interesting, gus. The horse came out and ran second on the AW, on my figures improving on previous form on turf.

I have him as an improver but prefer Mainstream here. If Going Up had been 20/1 [when I looked] I'd have mentioned him in the 'long shot' thread. I swithered about giving him a large 'P' but chickened out.

I also think Intisaab (2.55) might end up better than a handicapper.
 
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I'll have a bit on Cosmeapolitan this afternoon, DO, but he may need the run and I suspect they'll have their eyes on something more valuable further down the line.
 
Count Calabash in the last interests me. He recorded a good time when decisively winning a nursery here last autumn and ran reasonably well on his recent reappearance. He's well-handicapped on that form from last year and he's a double-figure price today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have him as an improver but prefer Mainstream here.
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Nothing going right for me at this meeting.

Yesterday Next Stage went too soon and was caught. Today Mainstream decides to spend 10 of the 12 furlongs fighting Ryan Moore and runs on into third without being touched with the whip.
 
gus said:
The supporting races at Newmarket over the next two days are full of interest.

On Sunday, Mr Lupton is back in handicap company for the first time since last June when he beat subsequent Stewards' Cup winner, Dancing Star in a big field at York with the pair well clear of the third. He's run very respectably in Group races since, particularly when a good fifth in the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock behind Quiet Reflection. His seasonal reappearance at Bath was satisfactory - he faced a stiff task trying to give weight to Muthmir and finished an honourable second - and he's now down to a mark of 107, only 5lbs above his winning mark at York. Only Hills have prices up at present and he's 12/1 with them which looks decent and there's a fair chance someone will offer better than that.

I mentioned last week that the form of last season's Zetland Stakes is working out well and Cunco went on to boost it even further by landing Sandown's Classic Trial. Permian, the Zetland third, runs over the same C&D in tomorrow's Newmarket Stakes and will take some pegging back under Ryan Moore. The form of last season's race is backed up by a really excellent time rating and Permian has two solid runs to his credit already this season, one in good handicap company and the other when just caught close home by Cracksman at Epsom last week. He gets 3lbs from the favourite tomorrow, Khalidi, and can turn him over.
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This couldn't have been more spot on. Fantastic work, well done.
 
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