Handicapping issues

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,641
Maruco's mention of his rating for ABP and the result of the Midlands National set me thinking.

I presume Maruco and I aren't the only ones who crunch numbers on here so I was just wondering how useful it would be to have a thread to discuss things, especially with some unexpected results emanating from the festival.

I'll start with a question about yesterday's big race.

I was actually pretty confident Ms Parfois was the one to beat on her best form but two things nagged me beforehand. Was she fit and well enough to show her form on her first run since the Hennessy and would she be able to give away the weight in the ground and at the trip.

The fact she was disputing the lead at the last suggests she was fit enough so did the ground skew the normal notions of the relationship between weight carried and distance between horses.

When it comes to the Grand National, for example, I have for some years now used a different handicap system from the normal one. Although the Aintree fences have been modified they still take some jumping which in turn uses more energy so I always treat races over those fences a bit differently and as result - I'd like to think - I've found five of the last six winners and the year before that I was on the nosed-out Sunnyhill Boy.

I thought about applying the same procedures to yesterday's race but let it roll only to see Ms Parfois anchored after the last.

I'm wondering if the test that yesterday provided meant simply that it was a case of last man standing and that only the front two coped.

What you others think?
 
I think you’ve summed that up pretty well in the last sentence Maurice.

I too had the mare down as a good thing and bet her accordingly, but soft ground over a marathon trip is always likely to bring dour stayers off lower marks in to play against those that are well in. The difference in this case for me is that the winner should have appreciated it too.

In terms of handicapping this kind of race I take a simple approach. I don’t because I don’t have to. Whatever I mark I give it its unlikely to have too much future relevance because I couldn’t be confident enough of my figure. And by not rating the race, when time has passed, when I look back and know why. I may choose to rate it at a later date if I have a specific reason to do so.
 
Hope you'll take this as a constructive criticism Mo, but yes you may have found five of the last six winners but you seem to back several runners each year, maybe as many as eight or ten ? In that case you have also found, say, 40 losers ? I may be wrong but sometimes I have the impression you overthink handicapping.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Hope you'll take this as a constructive criticism Mo, but yes you may have found five of the last six winners but you seem to back several runners each year, maybe as many as eight or ten ? In that case you have also found, say, 40 losers ? I may be wrong but sometimes I have the impression you overthink handicapping.
Click to expand...

Yes, I do back sometimes into double-figures in the National but the way I see it if I'm prepared to bet three in a 10-runner race where I think I'm putting money on value punts then why not go pro-rata in a race like the National?

Look at it another way, Gigginstown have won two of the last three Nationals but how many losers have they had in it? And Gordon Elliott has already said if he has 15 good enough to run he'll run them all. Nobody will remember the losers.

Last year, for example, I didn't really fancy Tiger Roll but when one or two firms were still going 50/1 after the Cheltenham X-Country when other firms were going 16/1 or lower, I thought why not, I can always lay it off at the shorter price and have a bet to nothing. Then when the price settled I decided to let it ride. I still didn't fancy it on the day, to be honest but the way I see it, it compensates for not backing Neptune Collonges which was an intended bet but just slipped my mind on the day. Even as it closed down SHB near the line I was thinking it was okay as I'd backed it too only to check my bets and realise that I hadn't. That was just a brain fart on my part.

I've also said often enough that I wonder myself if I sometimes over-think things, as people who know me well will know.
 
Last edited:
Another point maybe I should make is that I missed out on other festival handicap winners because I didn't think the price represented value.

For example, in the Close Brothers race I concluded:

I’m not sure that I’ve ever backed the winner of this race but I think I now know more about what’s required. The problem is that so many have the potential to leave known form behind. My gut says the Irish will win it but in fact Tully East is their only winner in the last five years and none of the ‘big’ stables have won it in that time; rather, it’s been Channon, Fleming, Williams, Curtis and Snowdon so don’t let smaller yards put you off anything..

The safest play is Good Man Pat at a reasonable price. He’s already got the form to win an average renewal and looks on a nice curve. Springtown Lake can go close if I’ve interpreted his form correctly but I see he’s top on RPRs too. The ones with very good hurdling form who have been kept under the radar so far over fences look like being Tower Bridge, Movewiththetimes and Ben Dundee and I also think Riders Onthe Storm, A Plus Tard and Shady Operator could be massively unexposed. I’ll decide on bets in the morning.

Of the latter group the only one I backed was Ben Dundee at some ridiculous price as I couldn't see value in dutching the shorter ones.

As it turned out:
1. A Pus Tard
2. Tower Bridge
3. Ben Dundee
5. Springtown Lake
7. Shady Operator
8. Movewiththetimes

I lost some money on the race but I'm not going to complain about my pre-race assessment. Good Man Pat never jumped a fence and would probably have been second if he'd run to the level I'd anticipated.
 
Talking about the Close Brothers race, younger* people just starting out on exploring the processes of handicapping should ask themselves about why Ben Dundee, off 141 and beaten 20½ lengths, ended up with an RPR of 142.

[ie younger than me - I'll be 64 this year]
 
Last edited:
granger said:
This could be a key to your future success and to another side of things your wellbeing.

Knowledge is the process of piling up the facts, wisdom lies in their simplification
Click to expand...

Yes. One of my father's favourite mantras was, "Don't pray for success, pray for wisdom."

I'm still praying (and paying).
 
I'd have A Plus Tard a shade higher on 162 with a p+.

I'm okay with Espoir D'Allen, and as said previously he'll have time to make them re-think before the end of the season.

I think they've gone slightly on the low side with Klassical Dream. I'd have him 3lb's higher, but I understand the caution given a number of races seemed to fall apart on the day.

Delta Work will win a valuable handicap next season off 159 if they choose to wait.
 
Last edited:
Thomas Darby +11 (151)

Itchy Feet +8 (150)

Beware The Bear +9 (160)

Vintage Clouds +5 (149)

Lake View Lad +3 (158)

Roksana +6 (148)

Bright Forecast +10 (149)

Brewin’upastorm +2 (148)

Topofthegame +8 (163)

Santini +8 (161)

William Henry +5 (156)

Ballyandy +3 (151)

Brio Conti +2 (148)

Defi du Seuil +8 (159)

Lostintranslation +7 (157)

Siruh du Lac +9 (150)

Janika +2 (162)

Pentland Hills * NEW * 153

Ch’tibello +10 (156)

Croco Bay +6 (145)
 
Last edited:
That's interesting. I did Janika yesterday out of curiosity to see how I thought he would have fared in the Ryanair and I had him finishing fourth just behind Road To Respect, ahead of Monalee and Un Des Sceux. Nicky must have thought he was a good thing off top weight in the Plate.
 
Nicky's went close in nearly all the handicaps, as per. Never discount them regardless of what the form looks like.
 
Maruco said:
That's interesting. I did Janika yesterday out of curiosity to see how I thought he would have fared in the Ryanair and I had him finishing fourth just behind Road To Respect, ahead of Monalee and Un Des Sceux. Nicky must have thought he was a good thing off top weight in the Plate.
Click to expand...

I did too and thought the weight swing from trials day would be enough. I thought at the time he looked a bit reluctant to go past the winner and wasn’t inclined to change my mind having viewed the replay. Just my opinion though and it may well be Siruh du Lac had more left and would have held him off anyway.

Kalondra ran an eye catching race but was held up too far imo and would probably have struggled to reach the leaders. Just hope the horse is OK


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
archie said:
New Irish ratings:
175 Al Boum Photo
170 Anibale Fly
160 A Plus Tard
159 Delta Work

169 Espoir D'Allen
156 Klassical Dream
Click to expand...

Some others

Band Of Outlaws +11 (145)

Canardier +3 (140)

City Island +9 (152)

Commander of Fleet +5 (149)

Dallas des Pictons +7 (144)

Duc des Genievres * NEW * 163
 
Back
Top