Hardwicke Stakes

EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
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Location
late 1960's early 70's
PACE

Purely from a pace angle I see these horses as being favoured

CAMPANOLOGIST
BRONZE CANYON
ENROLLER
STEELE TANGO

The others will be disadvantaged in what looks a to be a slowly run race.
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GOING

The horses with the best form on fast ground over the last 12 months are

CAMPANOLOGIST
BRONZE CANYON
DANSANT
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE
STEELE TANGO
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DISTANCE

? over this as a horse with 10f speed could win this rather than a 12f horse, best at 12f anyway

DOCTOR FREMANTLE
ENROLLER
BRONZE CANYON
DANSANT
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE
CAMPANOLOGIST
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long list in the distance category as so many of these are closely matched.


Without looking at the RP..as its down at the moment..just looking at the above I could see CAMPANOLOGIST leading all the way..pretty sure it will lead..nothing else looks likely...got the best fast ground form and is not far behind on 12f form. Many of these are going to find themselves tapped for toe late on.

I haven't consulted Betfair for prices...so it will be interesting to see how it fares in the betting..coz I haven't a clue
 
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RP site now working...I see Campanologist is f/c 3/1

the closest pursuer could be Bronze Cannon..but I can't be having Gosden at the moment - very poor form
 
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EC1 said:
GOING

The horses with the best form on fast ground over the last 12 months are

CAMPANOLOGIST
BRONZE CANYON
DANSANT
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE
STEELE TANGO
Click to expand...

Just out of curiousity (I'm looking for a short cut) how did you draw up this rank order, as I think it probably holds the key
 
Gosden's showed a sign of returning to form yesterday and Bronze Cannon interests me but Dansant holds him on all-weather running and I'll take him to keep that going at a tastey price of 9/1.
 
Well that being so EC, I'm increasingly being drawn to a slightly off the wall line which is leading to Dansant based on polytrack performances.

Bronze Cannon has to defy a penalty and what I'm now conceeding is stable form after Debussy (although you could argue of course that the horse blew his race). The percentage call has been to side against Godolphin all week where there appears to be a 'best before date' date involved. If the ground is as firm as we think it is, and with the home straight also starting to dry up, which of course it does rapidly, this might the critical factor yet, as we aren't talking about good to firm on these figures but rather firm, borderline dangerous.

I seem to have lost my own figures temporarily but seem to recall everything was much of a muchness and i think Steele Tango might have edged them in the 'Gordon Richards', but not by a significant enough margin to have any confidence, and there's a form line of sorts through the Ganay that woudl bring Tajaweed into play.

Consequently I'm left trying to work out if finishing 3.5L's behind in a Gp1 at Santa Anita that was won by a horse that went on to win another Gp1 doesn't represent the strongest recent form on the going.

It could be of course that Doctor Freemantle is the only genuine Gp2 borderline 1 horse in the race and it's really that straight forward
 
He also got a terrible terrible ride in the Santa Anita Handicap warbs, was finishing like a train at the end.
 
If you look at track records for courses that have a polytrack and turf track where there's some semblence of compatability between them then turf tend sto ride between 2% - 2.5% quicker. Turf has a much greater range than polytrack, and the Santa Anita records were all set in 2008 anyway (for obvious reasons) so to be getting within a broad area of 2.5% of the turf records after 12 months should (which one assumes were set on Good to Firm, with a bit of wind assistance as some have stood for years) means you might consider polytrack as riding at least Good to Firm. The early indications would seem to suggest that Keeneland is about 2%. Topography and geometry mean that the British tracks can't really be used as easily.

The one that surprises me by way of footnote, as I have really tried to get stuck in to it, is sand tracks, which in some cases have recorded faster times than their turf equivilants!!! I can only assume that what might be happening is the course is prone to greater erosion, be it wind, rain, snow or a plague of locusts, and periodically speeds up as horses start to get purchase off the synthetic sub-layer immediately below a thin surface rather than the sand itself. It seems more likely to me that maintenance cycles are going to periodically replenish, and I'm half wondering if this is what's behind this remarkable times coming out of Greece. Either that or the track must be even more downhill than Epsom
 
might be worth comparing similar uk flat turf track times..to say Wolverhampton..then again..looking at all the track layouts there isn't a similar layout to Wolves..all the flat turfs are more squashed down o shaped than wolves

the main angle i'm using with the hardwicke is pace...i can only see BC & C being suited to it..the rest will surely be asked to do too much in too short a time imo
 
Been doing it all week (using course records) with American tracks who have dirt, poly and turf at the same venue at the same distances. As a general rule poly rides between 2% and 2.5% slower. The secret is to then compare Ascot's track records and standards, with a basket of flat tracks at different distances (I've been using York and Doncaster). Using their average, you'll get an indication of how much Ascot's gradient is worth by way of a percentage, which you can then add into the transferable raw time. You also need to make some concession to the incrementally slower averages a horse runs each furlong by, also by way of percentage in order to transfer a dirt performance at 4.5F's to 5F's for example, or from 5F's to 7F's. The time isn't uniformerly in equilibrium with each furlong increase.

I daren't tell you what I found for sand mind you!!!! and am still trying to get to the bottom of it.

Does anyone know anything about this Greek track and whether its more severely downhill than Epsom?
 
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Hope you made something out of that race EC because you had it pretty much spot on - your first two were well clear.
 
Campanologist probably needed to lead to steady them up to allow him to get home. Imagine they were not happy to see such a strong pace. Good stuff EC.
 
no Gareth :mad:

I was surprised at the way they ran it..they seemed to ignore Barshiba mind you..I just couldn't have Gosden at the mo..or normally would covered on BC
 
EC1 said:
RP site now working...I see Campanologist is f/c 3/1

the closest pursuer could be Bronze Cannon..but I can't be having Gosden at the moment - very poor form
Click to expand...

Take heart that you sorted the race even if you didn't win anythng, EC1. Nice work.

I'll probably rate the race through Dansant (on 116 going into it) as having run his race. It will put Campanologist on something like 120 (about what he was before hand) but Bronze Cannon is a fair improver and he's given them all weight. He'll be on about 124 now, which would entitle him to be placed in a decent King George.

Pleased for Gosden but what on earth were the two Dicks doing? (Hills and Hughes, not Wiltshire and Parrott)
 
Worth remembering that the horse he beat at Newmarket came out and won a Group 1. Clearly Casual Conquest wasn't liking the ground that day, but it looks a bit better now.
 
With the horse that was another 3 lengths behind beaten since off 101, 100 and 100, does it really look that different? Though now I've said that, expect Drill Sergeant to win the Duke of Edinburgh!
 
Fair point - I should have checked the result again because I thought the third had finished way out back.
 
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