Has someone been on the sauce in irishracing.com

B

Bobbyjo

At the Start
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Feb 18, 2005
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Look at the probable SP for Champion Hurdle..in the 6 day decs...surely they will realise soon....I'd put this on the CH thread but it would be construed as a wind-up by people who'd want to believe it. Incredible..!!!

8/1 Menorah, 10/1 Hurricane Fly, 11/1 Oscar Whisky, 12/1 Peddlers Cross, 14/1 Mille Chief, Salden Licht, Overturn, Binocular, 16/1 Khyber Kim, 20/1 Clerk's Choice, Thousand Stars, 50/1 Bygones of Brid, 100/1 Dunguib.
 
Those are the prices for the Champion Hurdle 'Handicap Special' where each runner gets an extra pound for every 100 words of hype that are written about the horse which have no basis on the formbook.

Dunguib 12-04
Clerk's Choice 11-08
Binocular 11-04
Hurricane Fly 11-0
Menorah 10-12
Peddlers Cross 10-12
Mille Chief 10-10
Khyber Kim 10-10
Overturn 10-08
Thousand Stars 10-00
Oscar Whisky 10-0
Bygones of Brid 10-0
Salden Licht 10-0


.
 
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I'd say the lads in irish-racing must be rapidly nearing liver failure given the state of some of their tissues on a daily basis. Some of their forecasts are laughable.
 
trackside528 said:
I'd say the lads in irish-racing must be rapidly nearing liver failure given the state of some of their tissues on a daily basis. Some of their forecasts are laughable.
Click to expand...

They got me very excited last weekend TS - sadly the best available price was half what they'd forecast.
 
That's fantastic - thanks for putting that up. Very funny. Christ only knows how anyone could possibly dream up those prices! Nice under-round too.....
 
Shadzy: what is an under-round? I'd ask one of the bookies when they come in, but they're always in a rush like their tails are on fire. What's a good one, when it's at home?
 
A price is reflective of the probability.

So Even money is 50%. 9/1 (or one in ten) is 10%.

A bookmaker will strive to make all of the prices' percentages add up to over 100%.

So let's look at a football match.

Arsenal win Evs = 50% chance
Man United win 2/1 = 33%
Draw 3/1 = 25%

The percentages add up to 108%. So the bookmaker is making himself 8%* profit, assuming he takes the right proportion of bets. This 8% is the over-round.

If the bookmaker were to price it up thus:

Asrenal Evs = 50%
Man United 3/1 = 25%
Draw 4/1 = 20%

The percentages would add up to 95%, so the bookmaker would be making himself a loss of 5%*, assuming he takes bets in the right proportion.

This 5% is the under-round.

* I know it is 8/108 and 5/95.
 
:blink:

Errr... thanks, Bar! I didn't know bookmaking required a Ph.D in Higher Mathematics, but I've always been in awe of people who could make quickfire mental calculations, let alone work out stuff like that. I will have to study it for some time for it to make sense. I think I've got whatever the equivalent of dyslexia is to numbers - I just don't 'see' them, so it'll take a while, but nonetheless an interesting exercise for me. Cheers again.
 
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There, you see: I rest my case about what I know of sums! My most outstanding effort in that area was a total score of 9% out of an aggregate of 300% for a combi-exam on maths, algebra (who he?) and geometry. My mother figured it was for getting my name right at the top of the exam paper. My best contribution to the educative profession was to disabuse my father of a passing notion he'd like to be a Maths teacher. He tried home-tutoring, to be found near hysterics, sobbing "I don't know how she can't see it!" as Mother comforted him.
 
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