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I have had to do a complete about turn.

I had thought Denman was a bit of a plodder who would run a sound race in third or fourth at the weekend, which everyone would acclaim as being a magnificent performance off top weight on his first run of the season and I would nod wisely knowing better, that when he met up with real class his slowness would come to the fore and the big two would leave him for dead.

But that was like watching Carvill's Hill's Welsh National without having to close your eyes at every fence. I personally would make him 50/50 to beat Kauto Star in a Gold Cup, which, from a mathematical standpoint should make him favourite for the race in that if, in a vision, you knew he'd beaten Kauto, you'd be on fairly solid ground that he would beat Exotic Dancer, whereas if you had a similar vision that Kauto beat Denman, you might not be quite so cocky that Kauto would beat his old rival.

I still think Exotic Dancer represents the value for the race, although there isn't quite the attraction in the prospect of unfavourable ground for Kauto Star. Hopefully if these 3 class horses stick around there will be a small enough field. It would be a shame if the race got ruined by dreamers.

<blockquote data-quote="Melendez" data-source="post: 2122467" data-attributes="member: 64942">I have had to do a complete about turn. I had thought Denman was a bit of a plodder who would run a sound race in third or fourth at the weekend, which everyone would acclaim as being a magnificent performance off top weight on his first run of the season and I would nod wisely knowing better, that when he met up with real class his slowness would come to the fore and the big two would leave him for dead.But that was like watching Carvill&#039;s Hill&#039;s Welsh National without having to close your eyes at every fence. I personally would make him 50/50 to beat Kauto Star in a Gold Cup, which, from a mathematical standpoint should make him favourite for the race in that if, in a vision, you knew he&#039;d beaten Kauto, you&#039;d be on fairly solid ground that he would beat Exotic Dancer, whereas if you had a similar vision that Kauto beat Denman, you might not be quite so cocky that Kauto would beat his old rival.I still think Exotic Dancer represents the value for the race, although there isn&#039;t quite the attraction in the prospect of unfavourable ground for Kauto Star. Hopefully if these 3 class horses stick around there will be a small enough field. It would be a shame if the race got ruined by dreamers.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Melendez, post: 2122467, member: 64942"] I have had to do a complete about turn. I had thought Denman was a bit of a plodder who would run a sound race in third or fourth at the weekend, which everyone would acclaim as being a magnificent performance off top weight on his first run of the season and I would nod wisely knowing better, that when he met up with real class his slowness would come to the fore and the big two would leave him for dead. But that was like watching Carvill's Hill's Welsh National without having to close your eyes at every fence. I personally would make him 50/50 to beat Kauto Star in a Gold Cup, which, from a mathematical standpoint should make him favourite for the race in that if, in a vision, you knew he'd beaten Kauto, you'd be on fairly solid ground that he would beat Exotic Dancer, whereas if you had a similar vision that Kauto beat Denman, you might not be quite so cocky that Kauto would beat his old rival. I still think Exotic Dancer represents the value for the race, although there isn't quite the attraction in the prospect of unfavourable ground for Kauto Star. Hopefully if these 3 class horses stick around there will be a small enough field. It would be a shame if the race got ruined by dreamers. [/QUOTE]

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