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I got a chance to look again at the race last night and examine the form.

I've settled on a figure of 182+ for Denman but I reckon the horse to take from the race will be Dream Alliance.

Raceform/RP seem to be of the opinion that all bar the first two ran below form. According to my figures, the third, fourth, fifth and sixth all ran very close to their previous ratings (based on ½lb per length) and while Denman has improved something like 11lbs, Dream Alliance has improved over 20lbs. I suspect the yard must have reckoned they had a real 'job' horse with this one and if the official handicapper takes the same view as Raceform/RP, there has to be the chance Dream Alliance will not be raised for the Welsh National. I reckon the horse could probably defy a 7lb hike so I intend to start punting him for Chepstow as of this weekend. My only worry would be insufficient recovery time after a pretty tough race first time up. He looked to have a much harder race than Denman.

<blockquote data-quote="Desert Orchid" data-source="post: 2122542" data-attributes="member: 65242">I got a chance to look again at the race last night and examine the form.I&#039;ve settled on a figure of 182+ for Denman but I reckon the horse to take from the race will be Dream Alliance.Raceform/RP seem to be of the opinion that all bar the first two ran below form. According to my figures, the third, fourth, fifth and sixth all ran very close to their previous ratings (based on ½lb per length) and while Denman has improved something like 11lbs, Dream Alliance has improved over 20lbs. I suspect the yard must have reckoned they had a real &#039;job&#039; horse with this one and if the official handicapper takes the same view as Raceform/RP, there has to be the chance Dream Alliance will not be raised for the Welsh National. I reckon the horse could probably defy a 7lb hike so I intend to start punting him for Chepstow as of this weekend. My only worry would be insufficient recovery time after a pretty tough race first time up. He looked to have a much harder race than Denman.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Desert Orchid, post: 2122542, member: 65242"] I got a chance to look again at the race last night and examine the form. I've settled on a figure of 182+ for Denman but I reckon the horse to take from the race will be Dream Alliance. Raceform/RP seem to be of the opinion that all bar the first two ran below form. According to my figures, the third, fourth, fifth and sixth all ran very close to their previous ratings (based on ½lb per length) and while Denman has improved something like 11lbs, Dream Alliance has improved over 20lbs. I suspect the yard must have reckoned they had a real 'job' horse with this one and if the official handicapper takes the same view as Raceform/RP, there has to be the chance Dream Alliance will not be raised for the Welsh National. I reckon the horse could probably defy a 7lb hike so I intend to start punting him for Chepstow as of this weekend. My only worry would be insufficient recovery time after a pretty tough race first time up. He looked to have a much harder race than Denman. [/QUOTE]

Verification: 5 + 3 = ?