I know we agree a lot in our reading of form, Maruco, but I went low with this year's Gold Cup.
So for that reason, Coneygree's Gold Cup form would put him a good way clear of this form. However, I also believe away from Cheltenham Might Bite is comfortably 180+.
Somewhere in the deep recesses of the remaining brain cells I recall Coneygree already having been dropped a fair bit by the handicapper so the Hennessy could indeed be a feasible target.
I think you need to make allowances for the searching pace Might Bite and Native a River went in very testing going Mo. Bear in mind an entire Gold Cup field couldn't lay a glove on them after the first furlong. It was one of those races where time was an irrelevance because it was going to inevitably be impacted in the latter part of the race.
For me the question is what would Coneygree have done in that ground in his prime if he'd tried to go with them? Clearly the answer is a matter of opinion, but I could see him finishing third at best. I say at best because I'm not entirely certain he'd see the race out if it was a replica of this year, and might be vulnerable to a finisher. If he tried to lead himself and set the tempo that suited him, he'd surely get taken on early doors by Native River or Might Bite and wouldn't be able to dictate. He'd just be in the dogfight trying to keep tabs. The kind of race we had this year would likely produce a different result than a genuinely even pace like it was in Comeygree's year. This year Anibale Fly was best suited by the going and the pace by it than the rest and was able to pick up the pieces for third. Would he have finished third off a more even gallop on better ground? I doubt it. And would first and second have finished in the same order off a slightly more even pace on better ground? I'm sure we all have an opinion on that too!
Then there is the slightly tenuous link to Coneygree using Djakadam, who just couldn't go with the pace this year and plugged on for a never nearer 20 lengths fifth place, his worst run in the race after being a reliable yardstick for winners and placers for each of the three previous seasons, including being the horse that Coneygree just managed to hold off in his own win.
I don't say this to denigrate Coneygree, he was a good Gold Cup winner in his own right, but he was able to set much more even fractions unchallenged for the lead on better ground, and was still all out up the hill to beat Djakadam. And that's the rub of it for me. I don't believe for one second that Mite Bite would be all out to beat Djakadam at any stages of their respective careers. I think he'd have him in his pocket every single time. So therefore by default the same has to be true of Native River. In this instance as a comparison I see Coneygree as a bit like Bristol De Mai is when that one is able to dictate his own race in his ideal conditions. And I'd expect similar results to that which Bristol De Mai had when he faced Might Bite and couldn't dictate.
As a footnote, I'm with you that Un Temps Pour Tout is a very interesting Gold Cup contender if he comes back fit and well, all based on that Newbury novice that we both latched on to early doors. Collareral form still puts him behind Mite Bite and Native River however, which is why I'd really like to see him in the Hennessy.
