Hot/cold jockeys

EC1

EC1

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What are views on this...do jockeys always ride at their best?...if not are they worth laying/supporting when they appear to be in or out of form?

At Beverley this afternoon are two jockeys at both extremes

Joe Fanning 0/34 in the last 14 days..not all no hopers either..nearly half of them 8/1 or less..5 were below 4/1...one was 8/15. looks to be riding well below expectation

A Nicholls 6/15 in the last 14 days..mostly on big priced horses...looks to be riding way above expectation

Be interesting to see the comparison this afternoon in results between these two.

Is jockey confidence a relevant factor when weighing a race up do you all think?
 
indeed Colin

I were more interested in views as to whether anyone believes it relevant to the outcome of races..in general terms....rather than more hot and cold ones :p

are Fanning's mounts worth laying today for instance? with having this knowledge

are Nichols mounts more worthy of interest?


is it all just coincidence?...irrelevant stats etc???
 
Are you asking does success breed success?

Not a very new question.

I would say, if forced, that yes, if your confidence is high you will make the right decisions, until the bubble bursts and you are back in the trough.
 
would it be fair to say that a jock in the doldrums could actually cause a horse to lose

Fanning is riding a fav today..has it got less chance because he is out of form/in low confidence.. do you think
 
Its an interesting one EC1 but its better to look at the range of horses ridden, remember 34 rides for a big trainer whose horses are always priced shorter than they should be. As you said 5 were below 4/1 but you need to look really that if a jockey was 0-5 in 14 day's you wouldn't call them cold would you ?
 
no I wouldn't Chris

but..you couldn't say the rest of the rides had no chance either

you could rate the 34 rides as a rtf like RP do with trainers...this would probably give a better idea of actual result v expectation
 
EC1 said:
no I wouldn't Chris

but..you couldn't say the rest of the rides had no chance either

you could rate the 34 rides as a rtf like RP do with trainers...this would probably give a better idea of actual result v expectation
Click to expand...

In a big yard like Johnston's I would be very surprised if anything fancied would be much bigger than 4/1 unless it was in a big field.
 
I am not in any camp on this David

believe it or not..I am trying to get some discussion going :rolleyes:

that is really hard on here..because every time you start a thread here it seems it is used as some sort of stick to beat you with

did you realise that TRF and TH get an average of 15 viewers at any one time recently...the heady days of 186 on TRF are over

unless threads start interesting people then what is the point?

maybe this thread ain't interesting

then again..my idea of fun isn't a lightening strike at Ascot in 1860 :p

maybe I should start a thread...is the racing internet forum dead?
 
Sorry you are right, you didn't deserve that reply. I'd say that there are far more important factors that will have an effect on the outcome of the race that a jockeys recent form. Namely in the Fanning case, Drill Sergeant was still attractively handicapped based on the Haydock run, left on the same mark as when well clear of the rest behind Perks and that Fanning was likely to get an easy time of things in front, only the Channon horse had raced prominetly in the past.
 
sorry David

caught me on the hop there..being a bit precious I reckon

I would like a few more threads opening up a bit though

maybe the subjects are crap..I don't know

have you noticed the viewing figures recently?
 
When a jockey is riding well, his/her confidence tends to be sky high and they are a little more relaxed than if they'r eunder pressure to bang a winner in which makes a massive amount of difference.
 
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