How Much Does Breeding Count?

C

Colin Phillips

At the Start
Joined
Dec 22, 2003
Messages
13,268
Location
Talbot Green
There was a short piece on the Radio 5 Drive programme last night, about some research carried out by a University (the name of the University didn't register, I'm afraid) that suggested that a racehorse's pedigree only contributed about 10% to its chances of winning.

According to this report, the horse's environment and training were more significant factors.

There was a spokesman on for the breeding side of things (from Weatherbys, perhaps) who agreed to some extent but added that if you wanted to win the big bucks you still had to go for the horses bred in the purple.

Sires that he mentioned to support his case were, Saddlers Wells, Montjeu and Galileo.

I cant find any reference to the report either on the BBC site or the Racing Post site.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Dec 20 2007, 10:13 AM
Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion's fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal's prize winning potential.
Click to expand...

Isn't this just capitalism in action? Aren't a stallion's fees merely an honest signal of the expected demand for them?
Click to expand...
Again having not read the full report I don't know whether I am speaking out of turn but the problem seems to be that the Stud fee paid is not simply a representation of the foal's prize winning potential, but also of its likely value as either a stallion or broodmare itself.

Buying Storm Cat genes might not make it any more likely that the offspring wins the triple-crown, but if it did it would be many times more valuable than if that offspring was bred from an unfashionable stallion.

These things are often self-fulfilling, and as with many things: often you are paying for perceived merits, rather than actual ones. That is just marketing.

This isn't a problem if you think that the perception will hold - like any investment there is a degree of risk.

On a macro scale this approach is clearly working (and financially beneficial)- hence the ever increasing stud fees and the demand for certain horses even when the science proves that they might not be the most likely to win.

The key question is whether it is sustainable? Like any market the shrewd judges will be the ones who can identify when the gap between actual value and perceived value in the product (stallion) has become too unrealistic to maintain and at that stage switch their support to an undervalued stallion. If the results improve and the marketing resources are committed - this new stallion will reach the heights of the old one.
 
If I had a broodmare the first thing I'd look at is the winners to runners ratio of a stallion, if we're discussing value for stud fee.

Of those active currently only a handful of the top earning stallions have a w/r ratio of over 40%.
A couple of these are very expensive - Of live stallions only Pivotal, Galileo, Acclamation and Mr Greeley have win/run ratios of 40% or over besides the Italian stallion I mention below, and I'll bet all of them cost a lot more [the other is Danehill, but he's no longer an option].

If I had a decent to middling mare I'd consider sending it to a less fashionable stallion with a record of getting winners - possibly MARTINO ALONSO currently standing in Italy, 2007/08 fee is 10,000 Euros.... sire of RAMONI, w/r record here in UK is 1/1!! His win to run ratio from very limited runners overall is consistently over 40% - and over 65% winners to runners at 7f-9f, his own distance. He's by Marju, tho the dam was a v undistinguished Darley mare. Great value!

If I were to also consider and unproven sire, GENTLEMAN'S DEAL, a son of Danehill and the only one standing outside Coolmore I believe - would be top of my list. GD's dam Sleepytime was very good - she won the 1000 Guineas and is a half-sister to three Group winners. King of the a/w, ultra sound and consistent, and with a superb temperament. He ls v cheap for what he has achieved on the track. Only 1.200 GBP, same as last year. A v shrewd risk imo for a sire's whose progeny are yet to reach the track. You'd also be supporting the UK breeding industry
 
Nice posting, Headstrong (that means I agree with most of it!).

For an owner-breeder wanting an unproven but cheap stallion, then Gentlman's Deal could be a good choice. He's tough, talented and well-bred. Firebreak might do ok as well.

Among proven sires, yes, Martino Alonso looks pretty reasonably priced, but Italy is a long way to go. Bahamian Bounty is one I like and has done quite well as a sire of fast animals.

I have to disagree with you about Mr Greeley - he's suddenly become very fashionable and expensive, but his overall record is rather ordinary.
 
This what the thoroughbredreview site says about him!

Mr. Greeley ($125,000 Gainesway Farm, KY) - This guy is all smoke and mirrors, and buyers are falling for it in a big way. Drags his mares down and his progeny average just $4,212 per start. Most alarming, he's only getting 6.5% stakes winners from starters, a figure well below many sires in the $15,000 price range. End users need to take a hard look at his overall numbers before investing so heavily in an over-hyped sire.
Click to expand...
 
What price that two of Mr Greeley's best should end up with Jim Bolger?

I love the Gentleman's Deal story, £1200 is amazing given his pedigree and Group winning status in comparison to some of the fees out there. Hopefully they'll send him over to the US (temporarily!) at some point; plenty of Polytrack action over there now.

a son of Danehill and the only one standing outside Coolmore I believe
Click to expand...

Don't let Khalid Abdullah hear you say that - he didn't keep breeding Hasili back for nothing!
 
Since both his sire and dam acted perfectly well - well above average :D - on turf, I can see no reason why DG's offspring shouldn't. I think he may be a bit of a freak in that respect, but I don't see why he should be expected to pass this quirk on to his progeny, necessarily - certainly not to all of them! It looks to me to be a 'personal preference' of the horse. After all he doesn't have a 'dirt' pedigree. I hope breeders don't just send him mares for the a/w!
 
You learn something every day on here :D fascinating!

Following our remarks on Gentleman's Deal, who won well enough today after a brave front-running effort - I wonder if the Irish boys can tell us what's happened to GD's full brother SPANISH HARLEM?

He was bought by Coolmore for 220,000 Guineas. Spanish Harlem is lightly raced so far but I think he might improve with time, as GD has done. He has won a race, beating Archipenko in Heavy at the Curragh 2to - later he was 10 of 11 in the Irish Derby this year, having been used effectively as pacemaker. Worryingly he hasn't been seen since. AOB described him as "a big fine colt" after his win. Will be interesting to see if Coolmore keep him [and if they run him at Dundalk LOL] - can anyone with contacts at Ballydoyle ask? - many thanks. I'm really interested in this family.
 
Thaks Gal, I was going to suggest to Stan that he might join Yellowstone at Uplands!
 
Too late! A newbie on FF just posted:

<< Coolmore have transferred Spanish Harlem to the USA now, he won an Allowance very easily about a week ago - form is on the ATR database if you do a search for this horse. Now trained by Todd Pletcher. >>

Will be interesting to follow him , if anyone keeps track of US racing do post up when he's going to run
 
Back
Top