Hukum

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,754
Just having a first look at yesterday's result, Hukum's visuals are being backed by the figures.

Leaving aside Living Legend who was eased out of the race, the rest have to within a pound or so of their respective ORs so there's a case for arguing that Hukum has run to around 127.

Given that Baaeed is on 'only' 125, I imagine Hukum will probably go up to 124 to keep him below that.

127 is Adayar's current OR and, from what I can see, the highest rating among the middle-distance horses entered for the Hardwicke. The next is Hurricane Lane, currently 11/10 fav for the Ascot race, on 123.

I don't think the entries for the King George have closed yet but Hukum does deserve to come under serious consideration for it. He's 8/1 tops for the Hardwicke and that would be a good price if he were to turn up but I can't really see it, being only two weeks hence.
 
Frankel said:
The race was set up for him yesterday. Tougher tests await.
Click to expand...

In what way, Frankel? I thought the pace was modest; that Frankie was trying to dictate it for himself from the front, but Hukum just blasted by them.

I agree tougher tests await and whether he'll be up to them is something I'll worry about on a race by race basis.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In what way, Frankel? I thought the pace was modest; that Frankie was trying to dictate it for himself from the front, but Hukum just blasted by them.

I agree tougher tests await and whether he'll be up to them is something I'll worry about on a race by race basis.
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Pyledriver was never going to win under those fractions even if he was allowed to dictate. The pace allowed the winner to use his gears. Pyledriver needed to get him at it earlier.
 
I would have thought Frankie would have ridden Pyledriver for his optimum performance. Take Hukum out of the race and the result makes perfect sense.
 
RD(f)T/SF/Spf
16+1.80S0.30
28.5+1.34S0.16
312+0.7S0.06
410+1.56S0.16
512+2.13S0.18
67+2.08S0.30
77+1.06S0.15

<tbody>
</tbody>
R – Race number
D(f) – Distance (furlongs)
T/S – Time compared to Standard
F/Spf – Time fast or slow per furlong

In the final race, the winner went to the front early and shot clear before holding on. It was a very strongly run race. Races 4 & 5, run over further, have almost matched the overall speed. Hukum has gone much faster overall, so if he was sprinting late he must have been going warp speed.

I look forward to the sectionals.
 
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The mph show they went no great pace early, with most of the speed in the 2nd half of the race, and visually it was more a test of speed, rather than stamina.
 
I don't think we're ever going to agree on this, Slim.

Maybe Frankie did get the fractions wrong but he was clearly riding the horse in a way that he thought was going to win him the race.

Maybe he felt Pyledriver had enough basic speed to beat the likes of High Definition in a sprint finish.

Maybe he felt if he kicked from the front nothing would get to him.

Maybe he got it all wrong. I can accept the possibility.

But I just can't help thinking - given the way Hukum powered through the line - if Pyledriver had gone harder from the front in the hope of outstaying them, Hukum would still have hooked him late on (if not earlier). I'm not sure I would have thought that going into the race and maybe neither did Frankie.

I hope I'm not saying these things because I won money on Hukum. I only backed him because, like Euro, I thought his price was very wrong. My confidence was so low I went in much heavier each-way at 3/1 without the favourite!

He certainly surprised me with the manner of victory. Epsom has a knack of throwing up iffy form so maybe he'll never repeat this type of performance but I can't help thinking he would have won no matter how the race was run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think we're ever going to agree on this, Slim.

Maybe Frankie did get the fractions wrong but he was clearly riding the horse in a way that he thought was going to win him the race.

Maybe he felt Pyledriver had enough basic speed to beat the likes of High Definition in a sprint finish.

Maybe he felt if he kicked from the front nothing would get to him.

Maybe he got it all wrong. I can accept the possibility.

But I just can't help thinking - given the way Hukum powered through the line - if Pyledriver had gone harder from the front in the hope of outstaying them, Hukum would still have hooked him late on (if not earlier). I'm not sure I would have thought that going into the race and maybe neither did Frankie.

He certainly surprised me with the manner of victory. Epsom has a knack of throwing up iffy form so maybe he'll never repeat this type of performance but I can't help thinking he would have won no matter how the race was run.
Click to expand...

Hukum ran an identical time to The Derby winner in identical conditions, Weight, Ground etc!
 
Dunno about that, Max. I've never been convinced that you can assume identical conditions on different days.

Perhaps when I get round to checking it all out I'll come up with the exact same going allowance for the two days but in over 40 years of doing time ratings, I'd have to say it's very rare to get exactly the same GA on consecutive days. Similar ball-park figures, maybe, but identical is very rare.
 
Hukum picked up an injury in the race that may see him retired to stud according to the RP


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