I Am Puzzled

imagine

imagine

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
685
There's a horse that I follow called Lyon that ran yesterday in the 7.20 at Southwell. It's purely for sentimental reasons as the horse isn't particularly good although he did manage to wina couple of races last year. Anyway, checked the decs and prices on the RP site online before work yesterday to make sure he was still running - RP estimate was a 20-1 starting price which is fair enough as the horse has finished either well beaten or pulled up in all his recent starts.

When I called in to the local Corals on the way home from work the horse is 5-1 favourite which I can't understand, even with Choc Thornton booked to ride. It duly ran well for most of the first circuit before dropping away and being pulled up. I'm not a betting expert (or a form expert :shy: ) but can anyone give me an idea how he could have gone off favourite given his predicited starting price and obvious bad form. I know I might be a bit more aware of what he's done in the past because I've taken an interest in him but any thoughts would be much appreciated.
 
Mid week at Southwell on a foul evening doesn't require much money 'on course' to move a price on the day book. Only needs one moderately rich/ enthusiastic owner to throw a few hundred down at 20/1, I d have thought? Still I'm sure there are no shortage of people better qualified than I to explain this one.
 
A change of both trainer and rider ahead of this appearance probably influenced the plunge.

With the greatest of respect to Trevor Wall and Lee Edwards, their respective replacements Richard Lee and Choc Thornton will rate as a more enticing trainer / jockey combination to throw money at nine times out of 10.

Not that it made too much difference to the outcome this time, as it turned out.

gc
 
The betting patterns on this race were nothing compared with the race at Great Leighs yesterday in which the Ed Dunlop animal drifted from about 6/4 to 7/2, reared in the stalls and was beaten turning for home by a horse backed from double figures down to about 4s.

McCriick was calling for an enquiry and saying this sort of thing gives racing a bad name. I must say it was a most bizarre betting exchange, and the poor start of the favourite did add fuel to the fire of conspiracy.
 
That all sounds entirely reasonable to me, and if you where going to stop a horse their are easier ways to do it than drawing attention to yourself at the stalls where there are officials around.
 
Hang on, all this is assuming that there was a load of money punted on the animal. Racing Post forecasts are notoriously inaccurate; they are one persons opinion and often differ wildly from the prices which are actually available on the day. Never, ever, rely on a RP forecast price to ascertain what price you are actually going to get.
 
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