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I don't get it

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
26,667
Maybe it's my obsession with big handicaps getting the better of me but I just don't get the idea of running horses in races in which their chance is an outside one while running the risk of blowing their mark.

I can understand fillies/mares running for black type but your potentially decent handicapper?

I haven't looked through all of last week's races yet - just Aintree - and the award for this week's stupidest entry of the week goes to connections of Brookie who ran second to Khalif Du Berlais in the Maghull on Saturday. A 25/1 shot rated 17lbs and 21lbs respectively lower than the first and third, he has run a tremendous race to be second. He admittedly picked up over £25k for his efforts but he's been raised no fewer than 15lbs for them.

If they thought he was even remotely that good why not hold on to him for next season's top handicaps? With him still being a novice and entitled to improve another 10lbs into next season, plus whatever stepping up in trip would bring, they could have picked up two or three £100k races (Mackeson, Massey-Ferguson, the New Year race, etc) from gradually increasing marks. Those races are competitive and provided he only just did enough to win he could have won off the likes of 135, 140, 145 and maybe even, with improvement, 150 before gong into Graded races.

I do hope I'm wrong but I reckon they've just campaigned the horse into a cul de sac.
 
Because you are thinking every trainer is really bright DO. They aren't. They are just like good and bad tradesmen. There is an 80/20% rule that runs through everything in everything in life, every department. 80% of trainers are just average at what they do, or just not that good or just providing a basic service, 20% of them do know their game though. That rule runs through everything that we view as being good at your job, not just horse racing, anything in life that takes being really good at what you do. That is why 80% of all prize money is won by just 20% of trainers. Mullins for instance has worked out how to make that even larger towards the 90%. Most people with jobs are 80/20% in ability. Horse racing is no different.

When someone else works that out in horse racing, they will be IT like Mullins is now. Martin Pipe was it to a degree 30 years since, but Mullins has nailed how to beat the 80/20 rule. He is the best we will ever see until someone else works it out, Elliot is not far behind for instance, and I hate saying that because I hate the tw^t. Unless you can beat the 80/20 rule, you will not be special in any sphere of anything. You are looking at people who aren't very special at what they do really, just average on the 80/20 guage, probably 60/40 in real terms.


Think about when you look for someone to maintain your boiler, 80% will be useless f8cks, the other 20% will be people you recommend to your friends, same with any house maintenance.

80% of any sports money prize wise are always won by just 20% of the participants, all sports, all businesses. Anyone who can get this up to 90%, are really special, Mullins must be getting close to that?

You are thinking all trainers spot a 140/150 jumps horse in their ranks will know that, they don't though, sadly most have a questionable idea what they have. The ones who know they have a really good horse 20lb better than shown to press are the trainers you should follow, no value though there is there??
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Maybe it's my obsession with big handicaps getting the better of me but I just don't get the idea of running horses in races in which their chance is an outside one while running the risk of blowing their mark.
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I think you're making the schoolboy error of assuming that all racehorse trainers have brains, Maurice.

What's the old saying?

"In a typical wealthy family, all the children go to public school, the brightest are then secured jobs in the City so they can make many millions, the average ones become Tory MPs to create legislation to help the brightest ones make even more money, and the thickest ones go into racing and train the horses owned by the brightest ones."

They are NO geniuses in racing, even Aidan O'Brien and Willie Mullins aren't geniuses, they are simply of above average intelligence and, crucially, less thick than the other trainers.

Accept this fact of life once and for an and you will "get it." 😂
 
Ian_Davies said:
I think you're making the schoolboy error of assuming that all racehorse trainers have brains, Maurice.

What's the old saying?

"In a typical wealthy family, all the children go to public school, the brightest are then secured jobs in the City so they can make many millions, the average ones become Tory MPs to create legislation to help the brightest ones make even more money, and the thickest ones go into racing and train the horses owned by the brightest ones."

They are NO geniuses in racing, even Aidan O'Brien and Willie Mullins aren't geniuses, they are simply of above average intelligence and, crucially, less thick than the other trainers.

Accept this fact of life once and for an and you will "get it." 😂
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Yes, but surely you only need to be in racing a week to know how not to blow a handicap mark??
 
Desert Orchid said:
Maybe it's my obsession with big handicaps getting the better of me but I just don't get the idea of running horses in races in which their chance is an outside one while running the risk of blowing their mark.

I can understand fillies/mares running for black type but your potentially decent handicapper?

I haven't looked through all of last week's races yet - just Aintree - and the award for this week's stupidest entry of the week goes to connections of Brookie who ran second to Khalif Du Berlais in the Maghull on Saturday. A 25/1 shot rated 17lbs and 21lbs respectively lower than the first and third, he has run a tremendous race to be second. He admittedly picked up over £25k for his efforts but he's been raised no fewer than 15lbs for them.

If they thought he was even remotely that good why not hold on to him for next season's top handicaps? With him still being a novice and entitled to improve another 10lbs into next season, plus whatever stepping up in trip would bring, they could have picked up two or three £100k races (Mackeson, Massey-Ferguson, the New Year race, etc) from gradually increasing marks. Those races are competitive and provided he only just did enough to win he could have won off the likes of 135, 140, 145 and maybe even, with improvement, 150 before gong into Graded races.

I do hope I'm wrong but I reckon they've just campaigned the horse into a cul de sac.
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They're not waiting for handicaps as Brookie holds an entry for the two miles Grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown. Anthony Honeyball's ATR Stable Tour on 18 December 2024 included the quote " We are poaching for prize money and he might just pick up some there." That was ahead of the Wayward Lad at Kempton the following week ( 3rd of 3 finishers behind Sir Gino and Ballyburn).

Brookie is an eight-year-old and has won £66,000+ this season which is job done for this and the next two years. He'll probably finish down the field and out of the money if he runs at Punchestown - only 5,000 Euros for 4th place - but the Haldon Gold Cup or the Shloer will be easier races next season. He's currently not quoted for the 2026 Champion Chase.
 
Jayhawk said:
but the Haldon Gold Cup or the Shloer will be easier races next season. He's currently not quoted for the 2026 Champion Chase.
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Not the Haldon. It's a handicap, and he'll be outclassed in the Schloer.

I'd be disappointed with £66k if I thought I could have picked up at least £150k via three of the highest profile handicaps of the season and then maybe another £66K in places in the Cheltenham/Aintree festival races.
 
I’m all for farming the prize money, it costs enough to do it and if you do it as a hobby, as long as you get some of your costs covered and have fab days out then happy days.
 


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