Imperial Cup

M

mrussell

At the Start
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
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I've narrowed(!) this down to 7 from 24:
Tender Falcon
Chaninbar
Oldrik
Pascha Bere
El Dancer
Aather
Pistolet Noir.
Not having access to videos or notebooks of past performances, it's a question of applying bits & pieces of information from the market, trainers & reporters - not the most elegant way, but here's who's ruled out:

Pistolet Noir: Paul Nicholls doesn't have a lot of nice things to say about his chances: disappointng so far, attitude & jumping not up to scratch.
Chaninbar: trainer rates him an e/w chance.
El Dancer: trainer says he's not handicapped to win.
Tender Falcon: trainer says needs the rain, not bullish.

That leaves Aather, Oldrik & Pascha Bere: that's where my money will be.

Aather 8/1
Oldrik 18/1
Pascha Bere 36/1

Here's hoping .....
 
Sandown 3.05
(Norm 157)

Pistolet Noir 159 e d
Pepe Simo 157 +p
Numide 157 o e d (167+)
El Dancer 156
Oldrik 155
Pascha Bere 155
Katies Tutor 154
Stradbrook 154
Aather 154 ++
Tender Falcon 153
Border Castle 152 o (159o)((165))
Callisto Moon 152
Dani’s Girl 152
Treaty Flyer 151 e d
Sambulando 150 o
Caravel 149
Chaninbar 149
Tilt 149
Tocca Ferro 149
Press The Button 149
Cheshire Prince 149
Qaspal 149 +p
Dontpaytheferryman 149
Kanad - ((157))

This race usually takes a bit of winning and with decent ground in prospect, it should be true run.

I think I’d want to be a bit savage in compiling a short list. I’m ignoring anything that hasn’t already shown it can hit the norm or that hasn’t shown obvious promise. That narrows it down to, in ratings order, the top three and Aather, Border Castle, Qaspal and Kanad. Border Castle and Kanad appear to have ‘gone’, at least for the time being, so they’re out. I’m tempted to include Oldrik. His was an improving profile and the ground may have been behind his recent dip in form but he’s up against bigger improvers here. I’ll have a little on him as sickness insurance since I’ve backed him last twice. I backed Pistolet Noir for the Triumph Hurdle months ago and I’d have fancied him here if Ruby was up but he’s on stable mate Pepe Simo, which was my early fancy for the totesport Trophy. Pistolet Noir will go unbacked here. Numide was talked up for a big race recently but disappointed then and again next time but they’ve put some kit on him today and I expect a return to some sort of form. Aather did a nice impression of Starluck last time. He came there cantering but couldn’t find as much as the winner up the hill at Cheltenham. I think this will be better for him and Murphy will probably try to keep hold of him until halfway up the run-in. I’m not sure I’d want my stake resting on such daring tactics. Qaspal looked the part last time but the handicapper was also impressed. He’ll improve a lot – possibly enough to win – but he might just as easily find one or two improving just as much. I can’t back him at the price.

In summary, Pepe Simo can win this en route to the County Hurdle but he’s also engaged in the Supreme Novices’. Aather and Qaspal are probably next best with Pistolet Noir but my saver will be on Numide in case he returns to something close to his best, and I’ll have enough on Oldrik to cover previous losses plus any outgoings on this race.
 
personaly i am giving pepe simo another chance to prove himself at this level although he has plenty to do, have also had a saver on aather timmy murphy will probably hold on to him a bit longer this time.
 
Cheshire Prince ew for me - didn't get home over half a mile further at Doncaster last time out having travelled very well into the race.

Also think that Sparky May is overpriced in the Listed Mares Bumper at 15:40 - ran Banjaxed Girl (won 4/5 since) close in a Bumper on debut at the end of 2009 and unraced since. Banjaxed Girl is currently rated 135 over Hurdles whilst in behind that day was the useful Call At Midnight amongst others. Should be good enough to place and at 33's she looks a decent each-way bet.
 
You didn't miss a thing EC - well done. Eyecatching late effort from Tilt (worse luck), looks worth a check in the Coral Cup as can see him finishing What's Up Boys style if he gets a run.
 
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