Interest Rate Rise Today By .25%

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Courtesy of The BBC

The Bank of England has raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.75%.
It's just the latest in a series of worldwide rate rises, but why are central banks hiking them now?

Who else is raising interest rates?

It's not just the Bank of England that is raising interest rates.

The European Central Bank also raised rates on Thursday to 3%, and earlier in the week Australia raised its rates to 6%.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve has raised rates on 17 consecutive occasions to 5.25%, and it may do so again next week.

And even Japan, which has had near-zero interest rates, saw its central bank make its first increase in rates in six years last month.

Monetary policy makers are worried that renewed economic growth, combined with high oil prices, could bring back inflation.

What is worrying central banks?

A common factor is the effect of high energy prices, which is feeding through the economy to affect everything from transport costs to the price of utility bills.

With trouble in the Middle East pushing oil to over $70 per barrel, expectations that the oil price rise would only be temporary are now being revised.

Inflation in the UK rose to 2.5%, the economic target set by the Treasury.

Central bankers are also worried about asset prices, especially the cost of housing in the US and the UK.

The concern is that low interest rates has encouraged people to purchase more property, both to buy and let, and pushed up prices.

The ratio of house prices to average earnings has reached record highs in these countries.

And there is a concern that people have borrowed too much money, partly against the increased value of their property.

Will interest rates continue to rise?

Central banks want to move cautiously for two reasons.

There are concerns that higher interest rates could choke off economic growth, especially in areas like the eurozone where recovery is just beginning.

And there are concerns that a rapid rise in rates could lead to a big increase in the cost of debt, causing widespread difficulties for individuals who are over-stretched.

But most central banks these days believe that the only way to beat inflation is to tackle inflationary expectations before they get started.

So they want to send a clear signal to individuals and companies that they will act firmly.

And this means that - if inflation continues to rise - they are likely to take action again if they are to maintain their credibility.

Who will be affected most by the rate rise?

Many central bankers have argued that the recent bout of very low interest rates around the world have led people to underestimate risky investments.

The cost of borrowing for weak companies was not much different from the interest rates charged to stronger companies, for example.

They hope that the rise in interest rates will encourage people to re-evaluate such risks, and expect that the cost of borrowing will rise faster for riskier types of investments, whether in companies or countries.

This could hit individuals, companies and countries who have over-borrowed.

UK banks have already made big increases in their provisions for bad debts.

Who will benefit from the rate rises?

The biggest gainers from the rate increase will be savers.

Central banks hope that consumers will be encouraged to save more and spend less, thus helping to rebalance the economy.

This is especially true in the US, where a consumer boom has sucked in imports from around the world and led to a huge balance-of-payments problem.

The rate rises could also help pension funds who depend on bonds rather than stocks for their income - they will be more able to fund future pensions.
 
The European Central Bank are committed to the base rate being around 4.5%.I have no doubts that Irelands housing boom is at an end.
 
It had bloody better be. I am planning on moving back in the next 18 months.

However, I have a worry that I will be buying at the top of the market.

By this time next year, there should be a further .75% to 1% on top of the current ECB rate of 3%. Hopefully, that'll be enough to drop the arse out of the market.
 
House prices are a joke and they say here in the UK there are, in places, still rising. This one quarter of a percent rise will start to send a ripple, and should other rises follow, I can see an awful lot of people having their homes repossessed.

Evidently, a .25% interest rise adds roughly £16 per month onto a £100k mortgage, but how many people own a home of that value. :blink: When you start multiplying this out by 3 or 4 , and see how many people are already living beyond their means, this government may soon be seeing this mini recession really starting to bite.
 
I put a house up for sale on the Wednesday of Royal Ascot.I would decribe it as an entry level investment property with a good rental yield.Zero interest.
 
I can't see Irish house prices falling. People will not put them on the market for less than they were once worth. Houses will just remain unsold for longer. I see no particular reason for this to happen anyway. Demand is getting stronger and interest rate increases will only have the effect of curbing the increases. The arse will not fall out of the market.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Aug 4 2006, 09:38 AM
Where?
Waterford.At one stage it was paying the mortgage twice over.It currently yields 6% based on 3 students for 37 weeks that make up the academic year.There is a 4th bedroom and a summer letting would increase the yield nicely.
Its in good structural repair and nicely decorated.Would be a nice earner for someone.
 
Originally posted by Melendez@Aug 4 2006, 09:41 AM
I can't see Irish house prices falling. People will not put them on the market for less than they were once worth. Houses will just remain unsold for longer. I see no particular reason for this to happen anyway. Demand is getting stronger and interest rate increases will only have the effect of curbing the increases. The arse will not fall out of the market.
I have to strongly disagree with you Melendez.George Lee and David McWilliams have talked about similar booms worldwide and they have all ended with a crash of some description.
Oil,gas,electricity and vhi are all going up significantly in the next few months.Throw in further interest rate rises on top of this and a massive level of personal debt and it doesn't take a genius to see whats in store.
Best case scenario the market stagnates but in my opinion we will see a correction of between 5 &10%.
 
Never before has an economy been able to sustain such a high House Price to Income ratio.

I am not sure what makes people think that Ireland is so special. The sheer weight of people aged 25-35 has clearly been a factor.

But there are not nearly as many people aged 15-25. Ireland really needs rates of approx 5% to slow the economy down, but unfortunately it will probably overheat, owing to the fact that rates are being increased at a measured pace as growth still needs to be stimulated in the rest of the Euro area.
 
My youngest sister who will be 24 soon is a victim of the freely available credit in this country.I wouldn't say she is massively in the red-probably the best part of ten grand.
The bank called her last week and offered her a mortgage of 200 plus grand.She has zero savings but was clearly flattered by the mortgage offer.My dose of reality was not listened to.
 
Luke, so many people like your sister will fall into the trap, unless they have already. It is no coincidence that there is such a high number of people declaring themselves bankrupt, and even a small interest rate rise, can see even more people realising that they can no longer keep up their repayments - especially as we are getting closer to Autumn and then Christmas will be here before we know it.

Yes, it is flattering being offered a mortgage, especially when lenders no longer seem to concentrate on what is realistic in terms of repayments (ie 3 times earnings) but some are now offering 5 times earnings and now offering 35 year mortgages. Who on earth would be interested in one of those. Surely, when people work out the interest they are paying over that period, surely they would see it is a complete and utter stitch up. One of the (female) presenters on Talk Sport said she is borrowing a lot of money from her parents and then buying a flat in central London on a 35 year mortgage. What is this obsession about owning a property many just can't afford. The days of get-rich-quick by owning properties are fast disappearing, and the UK's obsession of being a homeowner or a landlord has always bemused me.
 
When you have to pay just as much, or in many cases even more, when you are renting a property, then to me, it makes sense to at least be getting something out of it at the end of the day.

That said, in keeping with my Hermione Granger-esque personality traits, I only take on what I can actually afford without pushing myself anywhere near a "fur coat and nae knickers" point. I would urge others to do the same.
 
Simmo, I use to think owning a house was the be all and end all. I brought my first house when I was 26 and sold it for a modest profit about 4 years later having been in a horrendous negative equity situation. I moved into rental property whilst I decided what to do next and I vowed never to buy again.

The advantages of renting (for me) is getting someone else to organise repairs, being able to move house fairly frequently sampling different areas to live in, and living within my means. My rent has not been increased for over 2 years. Buying and selling a house looks far too stressful for me.

I may buy a house eventually, if I find the right one but looking at the horrendous prices being asked I would rather pay a modest rent and earn interest rather than tie up all my capital just for a roof over my head.

It's all about personal choice. I love spending money and have every intention in spending every penny before I depart this lovely world! I certainly won't be working hard to buy a house to then leave it to relatives when I finally pop my clogs! B)
 
The MPC kept British rates on hold today, but the ECB hiked rates again by 25 basis points.

For those who are interested in these things, futures contracts price in two more ECB hikes in Europe before February.

Similarly, the market fully prices in a hike in the UK before year end, with a 50% chance of a hike in February/March.
 
Yes, I am definitely interested, BtB. Any more "news" like that would be very gratefully received.... well, by me anyway!
 
A recession is shrinking growth - the present problem is that the UK economy is growing faster than expected and inflation nudging up .
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Oct 5 2006, 07:37 PM
What percentage of borrowers are not on fixed rates?
Most if they have any sense. Lenders do not fix rates at a percentage which they expect to be lower than their future market predictions.
 
I am on a fixed rate as of July 2004. It runs out in July 2007 and I think I will go back to variable then.
 
I disagree with Brian a little bit. Some people get into trouble because they cannot afford to pay their mortgage if there are more rate hikes than expected.

So if you have a lot of money to play with, floating/tracker mortgages are best for you. But not if you want the comfort of knowing exactly what you will be paying for the next couple of years.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Oct 6 2006, 09:22 AM
So if you have a lot of money to play with, floating/tracker mortgages are best for you.
If you have I strongly recommend you pay off your mortgage or any propotion you can.
 
Fixed rates are a load of shit anyway. All they do is add what you saved (if anything) to the mortgage and increase your payments once you're back on the variable rate. There is no gamble involved for your mortgage provider. i.e. THEY are not gambling on what the variable rate will be.
 
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