Colin Phillips
At the Start
Apologies if I've mentioned this before but if you're into 2-y-o racing I recommend http://www.b2yor.co.uk
Covers all the 2-y-o racing in mainland Britain.
Besides the rating of horses there are a number of "interesting" articles. First the author's view of our pundits:
Left on the table after the first meeting to try to Shortlist the applicants for Interview was the list below. As part of the discussion the Programme Office had put together short summaries of the applicants known from their Pundit work. The summaries were supposed to be opinionated and characatures to try to facilitate the debate. Encourage the supporters of a candidate to have to respond and work to make their case for a person's inclusion. The Y/N/M(aybe, further thought, see how short the list is after looking at the other Candidate sources) in the square brackets afterwards are the Minute Takers' notes on whether to go further with the individual's application. None were thought suitable for the speculative, forward thinking, stream of the Programme.
Ian Bartlett - Affected, condescending, story-telling, twit. Unable to line up any two horse's relative positions reliably. Constantly surprised by horses popping into his consciousness (despite the fact they have been leading for the last 2 furlongs). [N].
Zoe Bird - Short menued, teenaged 'Am Dram' show-off. Personable but temperamentally unsuited for the long grind of lifetime analysis. [N].
Sean Boyce - Yellow & Red card system for use of the Phrase "It's all about the Betting, Stupid.". Bookies' Stooge as would befit an old Ladbrokes' man. [M].
Frank Carter - Blinkered resident of the Racing Post pundit hutches. Rarely let out to see some daylight and instead, unthinkingly, spends his time mining some thin seams of punditry rubble. Often to be found kneeling in front of an altar to The Market and expects it to provide more than half of his analysis. Remove what Simon told him to be true from the rest of his output and you are left with a man getting paid for chucking a few rough pebbles into the mix. [NN].
Mike Cattermole - An odd mix of man-in-his-50s and Oh-My-Gard West Coast teenage ditz. Unable to link from Point A to sensible Conclusion C through simple Fact B. Instead to be found standing admiring the flowers while simpering "Aren't they just, like, fantastic.., awesome". Is there a teenage girl in the US working her way through the colours for the 9:20 from Wolverhampton while doing Sean Connery impressions? [NN].
Matt Chapman - [Noisy. Orange. Adolescent. Invariably. ] Perm any 3 from 4. [N].
Bob Cooper - Disorganised, bumbling, old-before-his-time routine a subtle ruse masking someone who is actually clapped out, Bumbling and Disorganised-before-his-time. [N].
Graeme Cunningham - Plausible pie-boy Journalist. Determinedly Northern. [M].
Alistair Down - 27 years Down! No-one's forgotten here and things are cold enough now. Oh, yes. Aussie Jim McGrath's brother and swears by the same solids and drink input, upon inspection. Tiring throwback and as obsessed with stopping change as his mucker, the other McGrath. Believes that Flat Racing is a flawed concept and staffed by wide-boys and chancers. The NH crew being God's chosen choir. Nauseatingly smug. Noteworthy for a flowery writing style that suggests notebooks full of cringemaking doggerel, of varying vintages, to be found at his abode. Regularly claims to be able to kill any horse simply by being given care of it and standing it in a field. Never specifies how he manages to extinguish relatively rugged lifeforms quite so expeditiously. It's catching, this flowery style thing. [NN].
Tony Ennis - Chilling, nasal, robot figure. Notable for drawing the oxygen & energy out of any situation. Master of the Say-What-You-See School of Video Non-Analysis. The Cat-is-Sat on, what was it again, Tony? [N].
Mick Fitzgerald - Boy who has already disappointed. The Great White Hope for a Media future when riding but hopes not fulfilled. Second gear, indistinct delivery style for dishing out the Pundit Lite. Worry over how he will spice the act up when he can no longer say "..even I managed to win on that one.." and "...Nicky tells me..". [N].
Eddie Fremantle - The Boot. Chose the Southeast Region Timetable as his specialist subject when engaged in racing's 'Celebrity Mastermind'. Only owns one other book which has 'Form' on the front and worships the contents unquestioningly. Unnaturally obsessed with how tall other people are as he struggles to put a framework to his world now his fat sidekick is unable to lie up. [M].
John Francome - Butterfly brained & permed. Ability diluted by inability to concentrate and work at it for lengthy periods. More interested in other things and talking to his mates to settle to the analysis these days. [N].
Luke Harvey - Wide boy chancer. Winging It through life by concentrating on himself and the main chance. Empty of content otherwise. [NN].
Lydia Hislop - The girl most likely to disappoint given the strong start but now hinting at some fritterage occurring. Increasingly pugnacious but has promised to stop frightening the customers. Unusually obsessed with sweating and head carriage to no strong purpose. Yellow & Red card system for use of the word 'Lickle'. As in how many Ts are there in the word Lickle. Straight Red for 'Ickle' or 'Wickle'. Season long ban for combining them. [N].
Richard Hoiles - The boy most likely to disappoint given the lucid moments. Bean-counter who finds being outside trying and too easily bullied by anyone who has ever seen a horse. [N].
Simon Holt - The man they couldn't hang, err Name, ... err Remember. Sorry, Simon Who? What was it Simon used to say? Ah, yes....Never trust anyone called Simon, tend to be DJs, crimpers and so on. Riff-raff of one sort or another. [N].
Nick Luck - Smooth, ultra-competent, TV Presenter. Develops into an ultra-Luvvie, rough around the edges, mix-and-match artist when the analysis starts. Aware of a whole raft of 'Small Northern Races' which are invisible to the rest of us. These are all due to be won by the 80% of horses on each day he has fingered as Eyecatchers. [M].
Simon Mapletoft - Oh no, another Simon. Captain Cliche. Racing's equivalent to a smooth, plausible, Business Consultant. Turns up, talks through some lightweight waffle and pockets the cash. Later thought tells you the content was empty and worthless. You might as well have spent the time chewing on intellectual cardboard. Actually that is unfair. Chewing cardboard is far more nutritious than that. [N].
John McCririck - The boy who has already disappointed most. Object lesson in how to fritter away any talent and advantages bestowed in the pursuit of ephemera. [NNN].
Jim McGrath - Pie-fed Bibulant on inspection. [N].
Jim McGrath - Trilby wearing throwback finding himself more regularly irate as time goes by and the Present has become a little less like the past. Well Respected by others of the same ilk. Regularly walks out when change comes calling. Determined to ensure there is a corner of a Halifax field that is forever Little England. [N].
Steve Mellish - Ultra-Dad figure given to hanging around with pugnacious younger females. Hard working anorak at heart although firmly rooted in old-fashioned methods. Hints in several ways of being able to break from those ties with the right prodding. [M].
Peter Naughton - Professional Northerner in thrall to the OR figures. [N].
Dave Nevison - Tired old Dad still turning out for his local parks Football team despite being Gone-at-the-Game and spending a lot of time talking about the 'Old Days' when he had some success. Unable to give up the Football because he really still wants the camaraderie of standing in the boozer afterwards. General inability to develop & move forward. [NN].
Tom O'Ryan - Popeye style smiling and oily approach a subtle ruse to mask an iron resolve to protect 'Da Family'. Who you looking at, eh? [N].
Richard Pitman - Tweedy, Cordy throwback. Hampered by constantly having to wrestle with the English language and the shadow cast by his enormous Flat 'At and a big horse called Grasp. Or perhaps something else. What was that horse called again? I'm losing it. All brown, you know. Except the white ones. [N].
Alex Quinn - Toothsome, winsome, Zoe Bird forerunner in more ways than would be immediately obvious. Personable newsreader and purveyor of classic 'Pundit Lite'. [N].
Tarnya Stevenson - Estuarine bookie. Lacks the 'Am Dram' gene as a positive but too attached to The Market to be saveable, [N].
Hugh Taylor - Deadpan, media non-savant. Given a fire breaking out would ensure he saved his Disc Drive with recordings of the last 6 month's races on first. Happy to treat the world as a 'Black Box' and not poke about too much at the innards. [Y].
The Monochrome Set - That bunch of indistinguishable men-in-their-40s that litter racing. Media Presenters who cannot leave it at that and have to play at Pundits. All spend too much time travelling around the country talking at microphones to do any thinking about racing, if they were ever minded to. As difficult to satirise as Cotton Wool balls and as hard to differentiate. All owe their careers to Simon Wotshisname 1980s accidental success. One Ball wears a kilt and is perhaps called Alex, another is programmed to say "Shot to Bits" & "Shadow of the Post" at intervals and might be a Stewart. Another is being pumped up into a bigger, immobile, ball with time and answers to John mind-how-you-go Hunt. [NNN].
Derek Thompson - Progenitor of the Hopping-about-like-a-man-trying-to-get-warm School of Racecourse Commentating whilst ejecting random noises at various pitches. Brings his commentaries towards the expected 'Crescendo' in an irregular, rising & falling, staccato manner with no natural progression. Then fails to identify half the prominent finishers having worked himself into a childlike lather. (Lee McKenzie the only other notable adherent to this School). Often faintly praised for being 'Professional' as if the best thing you could say about an actor was he turned up to rehearsals and made his cues. Analytical ability of a 5yo because of the attention span difficulties, the hopping from one foot to the other, the unrestrained joy for puerile jokes and his unnatural awareness of himself as a 'figure' in the third person. [NN, Huh, Huh, Huh, Big Fella].
Jason Weaver - Uber example of how having ridden a lot does not mean you have anything new to offer as a Pundit. Expanding, pie-fed, matey chancer side developing now retired. Passable as a Presenter/Entertainer but pear-shaped Pundit. [N].
and another on the saws of Royal Ascot 2-y-o racing:
The Royal Meeting cover five days in late June and has a total of six juvenile events, four Group races and two at Listed level. Three of the races are at 5f of two Group events (the Norfolk Stakes open to males & females and the Queen Mary Stakes for fillies' only) and the Listed Windsor Castle stakes for both genders. Similarly at 6f there are now two 6f events with the Coventry Stakes open to both genders and the Albany Stakes (invented in 2002 as the "Fillies' Coventry") confined to females. Finally at 7f there is the Listed level Chesham Stakes for both genders but confined to horses by sires that won over at least 10 furlongs. The qualification used to be 12f but is drifting downwards in distance covered.
The Royal Ascot meeting looms over the early part of the flat season in a manner which echoes the way the Cheltenham Festival towers over the whole National Hunt season. The big difference is that Royal Ascot is positioned less than halfway into the flat season so is really just an early summer highlight rather than consuming the whole season in the way Cheltenham does. On the juvenile front the Royal Ascot races will be somewhere in the range of the 200th to 220th 2yo races of the year and the first ones at Group level and. That is out of a total of over 1,000 races and 35 Group level events. The large majority of the unfolding story is still to be written.
The status and impact of collecting lots of winning juveniles together at Royal Ascot means that the problem is often cutting through the hype and euphoria to divine the true quality and long-term significance of the events. The first item to watch for will be that feeling that starts roughly two weeks after Royal Ascot as a nagging feeling on "Oh no, it's happened again..". Some of the midfield finishers have run again in Novice & Conditions races and been beaten as has the maiden who seemed to run pretty well. Then those up the front at Royal Ascot get comfortably beaten in the next round of Group events and the nagging feeling has proved correct. The hype and hoopla of Royal Ascot has lead to the Group races being over-valued in quality terms, again. Not with every race but a good number. The sort of points you want to try to avoid collecting.
Rather than a detailed summary of the Meeting here are a few items to watch for as the five days unfold and a little bit of what to track shortly afterwards.
The most striking impact over the last few years has been the performance style of the raiders from the USA, mostly trained by Wesley Ward. Go back to 2009 and the first 2yo race of the Meeting saw Canford Cliffs run away with Richard Hughes and the Coventry and his career proved that was no fluke. The careers of the others behind aside from his runner-up who was held well back proved they were solid handicappers, at best, to re-make the point about assessing the quality. The Windsor Castle was later in the day and the Ward runner Strike The Tiger at 33/1. That horse broke best and was two lengths clear in early race and never stopped.
The Ward runner the next day in the Queen Mary was taken more seriously after that and started at 13/2 and did exactly the same as Strike The Tiger. Win the start from the stalls and get into a clear lead and never get challenged. His three other runners that year all finished well back with two leading their fields. The SPs went 100/30, 11/4 and 16/1 (drift from 8/1) as the initial, somewhat scary, impact worked through and the ability of Ward to identify what quality he thought the horses were became clear.
His five runners in 2010 to 2011 have all failed to place although he has had a winner at Folkestone prior to Royal Ascot. At least two things seemed to have changed in those years. Firstly, some British trainers and jockeys seemed to have reacted to counteract the 'Run Style' and were challenging the Ward horses for the lead in early race. This would mean they might be over-racing and not finishing the races off. The going in those two years compounded the effect by being softer than the fast ground back in 2009. Ward withdrew his last runner in 2011 because of the softer ground.
Hopefully, we will have USA raiders in 2012 to watch for and firmer going to allow their forcing Run Styles to compete well. Perhaps the Market will have forgotten about them a bit after the last two years and a 'surprise' win at a good price in the Windsor Castle might come along. Points for that and for each USA horse 1 length plus clear after one furlong. 5 points for each pre-Ascot win in Britain and 5 if you can find the videos of the early wins in France. As a subsidiary worth tracking a point about Americans knowing how to get horses to start efficiently and Europeans less so. 5 points for every European runner at the Breeders' Cup that mucks up the break and ends up flopping around at the back and limiting their options in trying to win. Only 1 point for each Aiden O'Brien horse that does that, on reflection, since he does not seem to have a different option.
Another regular to watch out for is the Wandering draw bias both in reality and in it's media coverage. 10 points on offer if the traditional 'preferred' strip still holds good in 2012. This is towards the Stands' Side but probably 10-15 lanes away from the rail. 50 enjoyable points if a jockey, say Spencer, hauls his mount back by ten lengths from a draw well wide beyond centre track and crosses to this strip behind the field. Another 50 if the trainer, say Channon, nearly explodes and berates the jockey for his antics.
10 points for each time the bias is touted as having moved because a winners has won in Centre track. 20 points if the leader hangs right throughout and drags their field with them to finish on the far side. Proving, or not proving, depending upon your viewpoint that there is no bias and "..they can win from anywhere..". 10 points for each use noted of the last construction and the same for each "..there is not a draw bias it is the where the pace is that matters.." spotted. 50 points if you manage to spot the 'conveyor belt' lined with 'Magic Carpet' just this side of centre track and the implausible final distances it produces.
20 points for any juvenile winner that belts down the Stands' Rail on it's own. The same for each mention by the Clerk of the Course or media type that the "..ground is chewed up.." after all the the racing as the bias and the jockeys move around in late meeting.
Harking back to the introduction above but be especially alive to the Over-rated Chesham Stakes effect. The fact that is is a very early 7f event in the season and the qualification rules mean that it can often be a soft race. The extended distance often means horses struggling to finish the race off. This can mix in the lesser plodders with the better or just solid quality types by the finish. As a general rule take a downside view of the form and be very wary of the relative finishing places. 10 points for each horse. that you avoid, that makes the first 8 places in the Chesham as a maiden and then gets beaten in a maiden at a lesser course later.
To finish a couple of items from the 'Oddities list' and you are likely to have your own. On the flippant side 5 points for each sighting of a trainer or owner in the 'Too big Topper'. 5 points if they just let the hat rim drop down to eye level or below. 10 points if they use the 'ear catch' approach to hold the Top Hat up and end up with their ear points bent at right angles. Back with the racing then 20 points for spotting that a lottery has produced the 'Coventry Deep Closer' who finishes third but is not very good. Here is a good example and a reminder how empty the Royal Ascot races can actually be. Go back to 2002 and the 33/1 shot in a volunteer third was Kawagino. He never won on the flat but had a solid career over hurdles and fences including flashes of the same fringe quality at major NH festivals.
There are plenty of other articles and in much the same way as Nick Mordin it may give you some thought on your approach. A little left-field at times but I find it a good read.
Covers all the 2-y-o racing in mainland Britain.
Besides the rating of horses there are a number of "interesting" articles. First the author's view of our pundits:
Left on the table after the first meeting to try to Shortlist the applicants for Interview was the list below. As part of the discussion the Programme Office had put together short summaries of the applicants known from their Pundit work. The summaries were supposed to be opinionated and characatures to try to facilitate the debate. Encourage the supporters of a candidate to have to respond and work to make their case for a person's inclusion. The Y/N/M(aybe, further thought, see how short the list is after looking at the other Candidate sources) in the square brackets afterwards are the Minute Takers' notes on whether to go further with the individual's application. None were thought suitable for the speculative, forward thinking, stream of the Programme.
Ian Bartlett - Affected, condescending, story-telling, twit. Unable to line up any two horse's relative positions reliably. Constantly surprised by horses popping into his consciousness (despite the fact they have been leading for the last 2 furlongs). [N].
Zoe Bird - Short menued, teenaged 'Am Dram' show-off. Personable but temperamentally unsuited for the long grind of lifetime analysis. [N].
Sean Boyce - Yellow & Red card system for use of the Phrase "It's all about the Betting, Stupid.". Bookies' Stooge as would befit an old Ladbrokes' man. [M].
Frank Carter - Blinkered resident of the Racing Post pundit hutches. Rarely let out to see some daylight and instead, unthinkingly, spends his time mining some thin seams of punditry rubble. Often to be found kneeling in front of an altar to The Market and expects it to provide more than half of his analysis. Remove what Simon told him to be true from the rest of his output and you are left with a man getting paid for chucking a few rough pebbles into the mix. [NN].
Mike Cattermole - An odd mix of man-in-his-50s and Oh-My-Gard West Coast teenage ditz. Unable to link from Point A to sensible Conclusion C through simple Fact B. Instead to be found standing admiring the flowers while simpering "Aren't they just, like, fantastic.., awesome". Is there a teenage girl in the US working her way through the colours for the 9:20 from Wolverhampton while doing Sean Connery impressions? [NN].
Matt Chapman - [Noisy. Orange. Adolescent. Invariably. ] Perm any 3 from 4. [N].
Bob Cooper - Disorganised, bumbling, old-before-his-time routine a subtle ruse masking someone who is actually clapped out, Bumbling and Disorganised-before-his-time. [N].
Graeme Cunningham - Plausible pie-boy Journalist. Determinedly Northern. [M].
Alistair Down - 27 years Down! No-one's forgotten here and things are cold enough now. Oh, yes. Aussie Jim McGrath's brother and swears by the same solids and drink input, upon inspection. Tiring throwback and as obsessed with stopping change as his mucker, the other McGrath. Believes that Flat Racing is a flawed concept and staffed by wide-boys and chancers. The NH crew being God's chosen choir. Nauseatingly smug. Noteworthy for a flowery writing style that suggests notebooks full of cringemaking doggerel, of varying vintages, to be found at his abode. Regularly claims to be able to kill any horse simply by being given care of it and standing it in a field. Never specifies how he manages to extinguish relatively rugged lifeforms quite so expeditiously. It's catching, this flowery style thing. [NN].
Tony Ennis - Chilling, nasal, robot figure. Notable for drawing the oxygen & energy out of any situation. Master of the Say-What-You-See School of Video Non-Analysis. The Cat-is-Sat on, what was it again, Tony? [N].
Mick Fitzgerald - Boy who has already disappointed. The Great White Hope for a Media future when riding but hopes not fulfilled. Second gear, indistinct delivery style for dishing out the Pundit Lite. Worry over how he will spice the act up when he can no longer say "..even I managed to win on that one.." and "...Nicky tells me..". [N].
Eddie Fremantle - The Boot. Chose the Southeast Region Timetable as his specialist subject when engaged in racing's 'Celebrity Mastermind'. Only owns one other book which has 'Form' on the front and worships the contents unquestioningly. Unnaturally obsessed with how tall other people are as he struggles to put a framework to his world now his fat sidekick is unable to lie up. [M].
John Francome - Butterfly brained & permed. Ability diluted by inability to concentrate and work at it for lengthy periods. More interested in other things and talking to his mates to settle to the analysis these days. [N].
Luke Harvey - Wide boy chancer. Winging It through life by concentrating on himself and the main chance. Empty of content otherwise. [NN].
Lydia Hislop - The girl most likely to disappoint given the strong start but now hinting at some fritterage occurring. Increasingly pugnacious but has promised to stop frightening the customers. Unusually obsessed with sweating and head carriage to no strong purpose. Yellow & Red card system for use of the word 'Lickle'. As in how many Ts are there in the word Lickle. Straight Red for 'Ickle' or 'Wickle'. Season long ban for combining them. [N].
Richard Hoiles - The boy most likely to disappoint given the lucid moments. Bean-counter who finds being outside trying and too easily bullied by anyone who has ever seen a horse. [N].
Simon Holt - The man they couldn't hang, err Name, ... err Remember. Sorry, Simon Who? What was it Simon used to say? Ah, yes....Never trust anyone called Simon, tend to be DJs, crimpers and so on. Riff-raff of one sort or another. [N].
Nick Luck - Smooth, ultra-competent, TV Presenter. Develops into an ultra-Luvvie, rough around the edges, mix-and-match artist when the analysis starts. Aware of a whole raft of 'Small Northern Races' which are invisible to the rest of us. These are all due to be won by the 80% of horses on each day he has fingered as Eyecatchers. [M].
Simon Mapletoft - Oh no, another Simon. Captain Cliche. Racing's equivalent to a smooth, plausible, Business Consultant. Turns up, talks through some lightweight waffle and pockets the cash. Later thought tells you the content was empty and worthless. You might as well have spent the time chewing on intellectual cardboard. Actually that is unfair. Chewing cardboard is far more nutritious than that. [N].
John McCririck - The boy who has already disappointed most. Object lesson in how to fritter away any talent and advantages bestowed in the pursuit of ephemera. [NNN].
Jim McGrath - Pie-fed Bibulant on inspection. [N].
Jim McGrath - Trilby wearing throwback finding himself more regularly irate as time goes by and the Present has become a little less like the past. Well Respected by others of the same ilk. Regularly walks out when change comes calling. Determined to ensure there is a corner of a Halifax field that is forever Little England. [N].
Steve Mellish - Ultra-Dad figure given to hanging around with pugnacious younger females. Hard working anorak at heart although firmly rooted in old-fashioned methods. Hints in several ways of being able to break from those ties with the right prodding. [M].
Peter Naughton - Professional Northerner in thrall to the OR figures. [N].
Dave Nevison - Tired old Dad still turning out for his local parks Football team despite being Gone-at-the-Game and spending a lot of time talking about the 'Old Days' when he had some success. Unable to give up the Football because he really still wants the camaraderie of standing in the boozer afterwards. General inability to develop & move forward. [NN].
Tom O'Ryan - Popeye style smiling and oily approach a subtle ruse to mask an iron resolve to protect 'Da Family'. Who you looking at, eh? [N].
Richard Pitman - Tweedy, Cordy throwback. Hampered by constantly having to wrestle with the English language and the shadow cast by his enormous Flat 'At and a big horse called Grasp. Or perhaps something else. What was that horse called again? I'm losing it. All brown, you know. Except the white ones. [N].
Alex Quinn - Toothsome, winsome, Zoe Bird forerunner in more ways than would be immediately obvious. Personable newsreader and purveyor of classic 'Pundit Lite'. [N].
Tarnya Stevenson - Estuarine bookie. Lacks the 'Am Dram' gene as a positive but too attached to The Market to be saveable, [N].
Hugh Taylor - Deadpan, media non-savant. Given a fire breaking out would ensure he saved his Disc Drive with recordings of the last 6 month's races on first. Happy to treat the world as a 'Black Box' and not poke about too much at the innards. [Y].
The Monochrome Set - That bunch of indistinguishable men-in-their-40s that litter racing. Media Presenters who cannot leave it at that and have to play at Pundits. All spend too much time travelling around the country talking at microphones to do any thinking about racing, if they were ever minded to. As difficult to satirise as Cotton Wool balls and as hard to differentiate. All owe their careers to Simon Wotshisname 1980s accidental success. One Ball wears a kilt and is perhaps called Alex, another is programmed to say "Shot to Bits" & "Shadow of the Post" at intervals and might be a Stewart. Another is being pumped up into a bigger, immobile, ball with time and answers to John mind-how-you-go Hunt. [NNN].
Derek Thompson - Progenitor of the Hopping-about-like-a-man-trying-to-get-warm School of Racecourse Commentating whilst ejecting random noises at various pitches. Brings his commentaries towards the expected 'Crescendo' in an irregular, rising & falling, staccato manner with no natural progression. Then fails to identify half the prominent finishers having worked himself into a childlike lather. (Lee McKenzie the only other notable adherent to this School). Often faintly praised for being 'Professional' as if the best thing you could say about an actor was he turned up to rehearsals and made his cues. Analytical ability of a 5yo because of the attention span difficulties, the hopping from one foot to the other, the unrestrained joy for puerile jokes and his unnatural awareness of himself as a 'figure' in the third person. [NN, Huh, Huh, Huh, Big Fella].
Jason Weaver - Uber example of how having ridden a lot does not mean you have anything new to offer as a Pundit. Expanding, pie-fed, matey chancer side developing now retired. Passable as a Presenter/Entertainer but pear-shaped Pundit. [N].
and another on the saws of Royal Ascot 2-y-o racing:
The Royal Meeting cover five days in late June and has a total of six juvenile events, four Group races and two at Listed level. Three of the races are at 5f of two Group events (the Norfolk Stakes open to males & females and the Queen Mary Stakes for fillies' only) and the Listed Windsor Castle stakes for both genders. Similarly at 6f there are now two 6f events with the Coventry Stakes open to both genders and the Albany Stakes (invented in 2002 as the "Fillies' Coventry") confined to females. Finally at 7f there is the Listed level Chesham Stakes for both genders but confined to horses by sires that won over at least 10 furlongs. The qualification used to be 12f but is drifting downwards in distance covered.
The Royal Ascot meeting looms over the early part of the flat season in a manner which echoes the way the Cheltenham Festival towers over the whole National Hunt season. The big difference is that Royal Ascot is positioned less than halfway into the flat season so is really just an early summer highlight rather than consuming the whole season in the way Cheltenham does. On the juvenile front the Royal Ascot races will be somewhere in the range of the 200th to 220th 2yo races of the year and the first ones at Group level and. That is out of a total of over 1,000 races and 35 Group level events. The large majority of the unfolding story is still to be written.
The status and impact of collecting lots of winning juveniles together at Royal Ascot means that the problem is often cutting through the hype and euphoria to divine the true quality and long-term significance of the events. The first item to watch for will be that feeling that starts roughly two weeks after Royal Ascot as a nagging feeling on "Oh no, it's happened again..". Some of the midfield finishers have run again in Novice & Conditions races and been beaten as has the maiden who seemed to run pretty well. Then those up the front at Royal Ascot get comfortably beaten in the next round of Group events and the nagging feeling has proved correct. The hype and hoopla of Royal Ascot has lead to the Group races being over-valued in quality terms, again. Not with every race but a good number. The sort of points you want to try to avoid collecting.
Rather than a detailed summary of the Meeting here are a few items to watch for as the five days unfold and a little bit of what to track shortly afterwards.
The most striking impact over the last few years has been the performance style of the raiders from the USA, mostly trained by Wesley Ward. Go back to 2009 and the first 2yo race of the Meeting saw Canford Cliffs run away with Richard Hughes and the Coventry and his career proved that was no fluke. The careers of the others behind aside from his runner-up who was held well back proved they were solid handicappers, at best, to re-make the point about assessing the quality. The Windsor Castle was later in the day and the Ward runner Strike The Tiger at 33/1. That horse broke best and was two lengths clear in early race and never stopped.
The Ward runner the next day in the Queen Mary was taken more seriously after that and started at 13/2 and did exactly the same as Strike The Tiger. Win the start from the stalls and get into a clear lead and never get challenged. His three other runners that year all finished well back with two leading their fields. The SPs went 100/30, 11/4 and 16/1 (drift from 8/1) as the initial, somewhat scary, impact worked through and the ability of Ward to identify what quality he thought the horses were became clear.
His five runners in 2010 to 2011 have all failed to place although he has had a winner at Folkestone prior to Royal Ascot. At least two things seemed to have changed in those years. Firstly, some British trainers and jockeys seemed to have reacted to counteract the 'Run Style' and were challenging the Ward horses for the lead in early race. This would mean they might be over-racing and not finishing the races off. The going in those two years compounded the effect by being softer than the fast ground back in 2009. Ward withdrew his last runner in 2011 because of the softer ground.
Hopefully, we will have USA raiders in 2012 to watch for and firmer going to allow their forcing Run Styles to compete well. Perhaps the Market will have forgotten about them a bit after the last two years and a 'surprise' win at a good price in the Windsor Castle might come along. Points for that and for each USA horse 1 length plus clear after one furlong. 5 points for each pre-Ascot win in Britain and 5 if you can find the videos of the early wins in France. As a subsidiary worth tracking a point about Americans knowing how to get horses to start efficiently and Europeans less so. 5 points for every European runner at the Breeders' Cup that mucks up the break and ends up flopping around at the back and limiting their options in trying to win. Only 1 point for each Aiden O'Brien horse that does that, on reflection, since he does not seem to have a different option.
Another regular to watch out for is the Wandering draw bias both in reality and in it's media coverage. 10 points on offer if the traditional 'preferred' strip still holds good in 2012. This is towards the Stands' Side but probably 10-15 lanes away from the rail. 50 enjoyable points if a jockey, say Spencer, hauls his mount back by ten lengths from a draw well wide beyond centre track and crosses to this strip behind the field. Another 50 if the trainer, say Channon, nearly explodes and berates the jockey for his antics.
10 points for each time the bias is touted as having moved because a winners has won in Centre track. 20 points if the leader hangs right throughout and drags their field with them to finish on the far side. Proving, or not proving, depending upon your viewpoint that there is no bias and "..they can win from anywhere..". 10 points for each use noted of the last construction and the same for each "..there is not a draw bias it is the where the pace is that matters.." spotted. 50 points if you manage to spot the 'conveyor belt' lined with 'Magic Carpet' just this side of centre track and the implausible final distances it produces.
20 points for any juvenile winner that belts down the Stands' Rail on it's own. The same for each mention by the Clerk of the Course or media type that the "..ground is chewed up.." after all the the racing as the bias and the jockeys move around in late meeting.
Harking back to the introduction above but be especially alive to the Over-rated Chesham Stakes effect. The fact that is is a very early 7f event in the season and the qualification rules mean that it can often be a soft race. The extended distance often means horses struggling to finish the race off. This can mix in the lesser plodders with the better or just solid quality types by the finish. As a general rule take a downside view of the form and be very wary of the relative finishing places. 10 points for each horse. that you avoid, that makes the first 8 places in the Chesham as a maiden and then gets beaten in a maiden at a lesser course later.
To finish a couple of items from the 'Oddities list' and you are likely to have your own. On the flippant side 5 points for each sighting of a trainer or owner in the 'Too big Topper'. 5 points if they just let the hat rim drop down to eye level or below. 10 points if they use the 'ear catch' approach to hold the Top Hat up and end up with their ear points bent at right angles. Back with the racing then 20 points for spotting that a lottery has produced the 'Coventry Deep Closer' who finishes third but is not very good. Here is a good example and a reminder how empty the Royal Ascot races can actually be. Go back to 2002 and the 33/1 shot in a volunteer third was Kawagino. He never won on the flat but had a solid career over hurdles and fences including flashes of the same fringe quality at major NH festivals.
There are plenty of other articles and in much the same way as Nick Mordin it may give you some thought on your approach. A little left-field at times but I find it a good read.