Impossible to say with certainty that Tilsit would have won regardless but, in the interests of fairness, that shouldn't even be a consideration. As far as I know, it doesn't enter the argument in Hong Kong.
I like to draw analogies with other situations when trying to analyse one. It's a bit like saying a second yellow card shouldn't be given because it would mean the player gets sent off and he isn't really a dirty player.
The debate has been aired on this forum more than once over the last 20 years and there's never been broad agreement; rather it's been broad disagreement. If we as punters can't agree on what's right and fair then the sport as a whole has no chance.
I reckon we can pretty much trace the argument back to the 1974 Queen Anne in which the first three were rightly disqualified and the fourth horse awarded the race. There was outcry as it was unprecedented and allowed a lesser animal to win a prestigious race and the lily-livered authorities soon started to introduce mitigating circumstances to allow transgressors to go unpunished.
There was another incident in the Juddmonte in 1998 when the first three jockeys were penalised for excessive use of the whip but there were no disqualifications and little, if any, interference. Slightly different circumstances, admittedly, but rules were broken and, if memory serves, the only reason there weren't disqualifications was because the stewards didn't want another Queen Anne. (Not a direct quote from any of the stewards, just a general interpretation of the mood in the racing media and among the racing public at the time.)
We've been going downhill pretty much ever since. (In my opinion.)