Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
Top and bottom of it is, Naaqoos would have won this so easily that Davy Bonila could have stopped for a glass of champagne and a punnet of strawberries at the furlong pole with James Sherwood to discuss the fashion merits of Hamdan Al Maktoum's fetching blue and white skills. As it goes, he doesn't come over so here's what I make of it otherwise....
2.30 Ascot – Jersey Stakes
Aranel (Rated NA)
Spanish raider who’s form is near on impossible to get a handle on. Won 2 of his 3 starts and his trainer is to be respected internationally after his campaigning of Equiano and Bannaby.
Ashram (Rated 83)
Very talented two year-old for John Hills last year, best performance coming in a Group 3 at Newmarket where he won by 4.5 lengths. Then went on to the Dewhurst where he ran creditably in midfield, beaten only 2 lengths after getting little cover and finished late. Moved to Godolphin over the Winter and bombed out in the Guineas but bounced back from that to finish 2nd to Border Patrol at Sandown which represents reasonable form. Probably needs to build on that again to take a hand here. Tried in a visor for the first time.
Awinnersgame (Rated 83)
Ran his best race in a sales race at Doncaster where he clocked his best rating on my figures, that was on a softer surface. Has since aqcuited himself reasonably well at listed level without winning and his form this year is some way below what is required to win this (Ratings only in mid 70s).
Deposer (Rated 82)
Didn’t show much as a 2 year old, only won a maiden on the all-weather at Lingfield, then embarked on a highly ambitious USA campaign which wasn’t terribly successful either. Form has improved this year with a 4th in the Dee Stakes being his best showing on the stopwatch. Kept that form to run to a figure of 81 behind Mac Love in the Diomed Stakes against older horses. Stepping back to 7 furlongs here though and it’s hard to envisage that suiting him as he seemed to improve for the step up in trip this year.
Donatavium (Rated 80)
Breeders Cup turf winner for John Gosden last year after winning big sales race at Newmarket, the form of that doesn’t look as strong as it once did but that was his best performance speed wise as I don’t have a figure for his win at Santa Anita. Joined Godolphin over the Winter and put a very tame effort in on his debut at Newmarket where he looked uncomfortable and raced with his head all over the place throughout, chances are that has bought him on as stable’s three year olds seem to be improving for a run (see Ashram) but looks the second string on jockey bookings which speaks volumes for his regression unfortunately.
Gallagher (Rated 84)
Somehow never won again after wide margin Chepstow success but placed in the Morny and two group twos which were all very consistent showings on my figures and represented above average times for a two-year old last season, disappointed in the Middle Park. Strange for him to start the season so late (presumably had a setback) and whilst he has the form in the book, has to prove he’s trained on.
Infiraad (Rated 77)
Ran once as a two year old, finishing 3rd to Evasive at Newmarket which represents very good form. Won his maiden at the Craven meeting before going on to demolish a handicap on Guineas weekend at HQ, form of that race has been franked with the 2nd winning at Nottingham and a rating of 77 at this early stage of his career in competitive company is very reasonable and is sure to play a big part in this contest. Drawn widest of all though.
Instalment (Rated 80)
Form at group level last year was below whats required in this race but won a decent sprint handicap at Salisbury earning his best speed figure yet but he needs to prove he can do that over 7 furlongs in better company.
Jobe (Rated 78)
Has some reasonable two year old form in the book (3rd in Gimcrack) but his best showing came over 6f at Hamilton last month and he didn’t build on that at Haydock. That is some way below what is required to win this.
Loch Linnhe (Rated 77)
Only raced once and absolutely bolted in by 8 lengths in a Newmarket maiden last month in a very decent time, wouldn’t have been fully extended that day and sure to build on that. From a very good yard and they wouldn’t be pitching him in here if he didn’t have a chance, has to be respected.
Nasri (Rated 82)
Best figures came in a Newbury nursery as a 2 year old and when 2nd in a listed race at Newmarket last month, that is very reasonable form and you could make excuses for his run at Epsom lto as the track probably didn’t suit. He’s quite exposed but has a fighting chance here. You are taking a risk in trusting Jamie Spencer to guide him from what could be a very tricky draw.
Ocean’s Minstrel (Rated 79)
Winner of 2 listed races and his best rating came last time out when winning listed race at Epsom (probably flattered and Nasri disappointed on the track as above) after finishing well beaten in the Guineas. Would need a marked step up on that to win at this level.
Ouqba (Rated 80)
Quite highly tried as a two year old but only won moderate races. Improved to win the free handicap at the Craven meeting and that represents his best form and figure, went on to get trounced in the Guineas and the step back to 7f will help him but not sure he’ll be able to deal with the potential 2 stars in this lineup.
Patrician’s Glory (Rated 74)
Has ok form as a two year old but it’s only moderate and whilst I respect connections, he looks really up against it at this level with such low figures on the board.
Saucy Brown (Rated 83)
Quite exposed but has won at the distance with a very reasonable rating of 83 at Doncaster in a conditions race early last month, has since been beaten at 6f in another conditions race at Doncaster behind Proclaim. His form aside from that effort over 7f at Doncaster wouldn’t give him a prayer in this.
Total Gallery (Rated 85)
The highest rated in the field after earning an 85 in a Listed sprint here at the end of April, form of that reads ok and he had excuses when beat at Haydock in heavy ground in the Temple Stakes. Consistent profile apart from that but all at sprint distances and has to prove he can carry his sprint form forward now stepped up to 7 furlongs.
Conclusion
Quite an odd race really which has been very hard to get a handle on. There are plenty of horses with either good figures as a 2 year old or in lesser races at different distances as a 3 year old. Ashram, Infiraad, Loch Linnhe, Nasri, Ouqba and Total Gallery would be my shortlist and two of that list are unexposed, are open to improvement but have the lesser ratings. I think Loch Linnhe probably has the best chance, he has a good looking draw and is potentially group class. It’s intriguing that the Darley operation have kept him in training after he never raced for Andre Fabre (presumably under the Sheikh Mohammed ownership) and not sent him to Godolphin (thankfully). He does have to improve on his figure of 77 but that looks more than likely given he was far from fully extended when winning by 8 lengths at Newmarket. Infiraad has a similar profile and has won in a handicap but doesn’t have the same excitement about him as the selection, he could well turn out to be very good but I’d favour the Gosden horse from his arguably better draw. Total Gallery may run into a place as he’s ran well at the course before but needs to be able to get the extra furlong.
Prediction
1st - Loch Linnhe
2nd - Infiraad
3rd - Total Gallery
2.30 Ascot – Jersey Stakes
Aranel (Rated NA)
Spanish raider who’s form is near on impossible to get a handle on. Won 2 of his 3 starts and his trainer is to be respected internationally after his campaigning of Equiano and Bannaby.
Ashram (Rated 83)
Very talented two year-old for John Hills last year, best performance coming in a Group 3 at Newmarket where he won by 4.5 lengths. Then went on to the Dewhurst where he ran creditably in midfield, beaten only 2 lengths after getting little cover and finished late. Moved to Godolphin over the Winter and bombed out in the Guineas but bounced back from that to finish 2nd to Border Patrol at Sandown which represents reasonable form. Probably needs to build on that again to take a hand here. Tried in a visor for the first time.
Awinnersgame (Rated 83)
Ran his best race in a sales race at Doncaster where he clocked his best rating on my figures, that was on a softer surface. Has since aqcuited himself reasonably well at listed level without winning and his form this year is some way below what is required to win this (Ratings only in mid 70s).
Deposer (Rated 82)
Didn’t show much as a 2 year old, only won a maiden on the all-weather at Lingfield, then embarked on a highly ambitious USA campaign which wasn’t terribly successful either. Form has improved this year with a 4th in the Dee Stakes being his best showing on the stopwatch. Kept that form to run to a figure of 81 behind Mac Love in the Diomed Stakes against older horses. Stepping back to 7 furlongs here though and it’s hard to envisage that suiting him as he seemed to improve for the step up in trip this year.
Donatavium (Rated 80)
Breeders Cup turf winner for John Gosden last year after winning big sales race at Newmarket, the form of that doesn’t look as strong as it once did but that was his best performance speed wise as I don’t have a figure for his win at Santa Anita. Joined Godolphin over the Winter and put a very tame effort in on his debut at Newmarket where he looked uncomfortable and raced with his head all over the place throughout, chances are that has bought him on as stable’s three year olds seem to be improving for a run (see Ashram) but looks the second string on jockey bookings which speaks volumes for his regression unfortunately.
Gallagher (Rated 84)
Somehow never won again after wide margin Chepstow success but placed in the Morny and two group twos which were all very consistent showings on my figures and represented above average times for a two-year old last season, disappointed in the Middle Park. Strange for him to start the season so late (presumably had a setback) and whilst he has the form in the book, has to prove he’s trained on.
Infiraad (Rated 77)
Ran once as a two year old, finishing 3rd to Evasive at Newmarket which represents very good form. Won his maiden at the Craven meeting before going on to demolish a handicap on Guineas weekend at HQ, form of that race has been franked with the 2nd winning at Nottingham and a rating of 77 at this early stage of his career in competitive company is very reasonable and is sure to play a big part in this contest. Drawn widest of all though.
Instalment (Rated 80)
Form at group level last year was below whats required in this race but won a decent sprint handicap at Salisbury earning his best speed figure yet but he needs to prove he can do that over 7 furlongs in better company.
Jobe (Rated 78)
Has some reasonable two year old form in the book (3rd in Gimcrack) but his best showing came over 6f at Hamilton last month and he didn’t build on that at Haydock. That is some way below what is required to win this.
Loch Linnhe (Rated 77)
Only raced once and absolutely bolted in by 8 lengths in a Newmarket maiden last month in a very decent time, wouldn’t have been fully extended that day and sure to build on that. From a very good yard and they wouldn’t be pitching him in here if he didn’t have a chance, has to be respected.
Nasri (Rated 82)
Best figures came in a Newbury nursery as a 2 year old and when 2nd in a listed race at Newmarket last month, that is very reasonable form and you could make excuses for his run at Epsom lto as the track probably didn’t suit. He’s quite exposed but has a fighting chance here. You are taking a risk in trusting Jamie Spencer to guide him from what could be a very tricky draw.
Ocean’s Minstrel (Rated 79)
Winner of 2 listed races and his best rating came last time out when winning listed race at Epsom (probably flattered and Nasri disappointed on the track as above) after finishing well beaten in the Guineas. Would need a marked step up on that to win at this level.
Ouqba (Rated 80)
Quite highly tried as a two year old but only won moderate races. Improved to win the free handicap at the Craven meeting and that represents his best form and figure, went on to get trounced in the Guineas and the step back to 7f will help him but not sure he’ll be able to deal with the potential 2 stars in this lineup.
Patrician’s Glory (Rated 74)
Has ok form as a two year old but it’s only moderate and whilst I respect connections, he looks really up against it at this level with such low figures on the board.
Saucy Brown (Rated 83)
Quite exposed but has won at the distance with a very reasonable rating of 83 at Doncaster in a conditions race early last month, has since been beaten at 6f in another conditions race at Doncaster behind Proclaim. His form aside from that effort over 7f at Doncaster wouldn’t give him a prayer in this.
Total Gallery (Rated 85)
The highest rated in the field after earning an 85 in a Listed sprint here at the end of April, form of that reads ok and he had excuses when beat at Haydock in heavy ground in the Temple Stakes. Consistent profile apart from that but all at sprint distances and has to prove he can carry his sprint form forward now stepped up to 7 furlongs.
Conclusion
Quite an odd race really which has been very hard to get a handle on. There are plenty of horses with either good figures as a 2 year old or in lesser races at different distances as a 3 year old. Ashram, Infiraad, Loch Linnhe, Nasri, Ouqba and Total Gallery would be my shortlist and two of that list are unexposed, are open to improvement but have the lesser ratings. I think Loch Linnhe probably has the best chance, he has a good looking draw and is potentially group class. It’s intriguing that the Darley operation have kept him in training after he never raced for Andre Fabre (presumably under the Sheikh Mohammed ownership) and not sent him to Godolphin (thankfully). He does have to improve on his figure of 77 but that looks more than likely given he was far from fully extended when winning by 8 lengths at Newmarket. Infiraad has a similar profile and has won in a handicap but doesn’t have the same excitement about him as the selection, he could well turn out to be very good but I’d favour the Gosden horse from his arguably better draw. Total Gallery may run into a place as he’s ran well at the course before but needs to be able to get the extra furlong.
Prediction
1st - Loch Linnhe
2nd - Infiraad
3rd - Total Gallery
