Jockeys At The Festival

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Maruco

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We all know the top jocks will win the lions share of races, and I suspect 80% of jockeys offer poor value not getting their mounts in the right places through the race or more pertinently at the business end. But the reality is the top jocks can't win the amateur races, and don't win all races, so it's surely worth producing a list of the others that we believe can perform well at the Festival, particularly talented claimers and amateurs.

Often we see the emergence of a young talented jockey at the Festival usually from Ireland. So any thoughts on young claimers or amateurs either side of the Irish Sea who may outperform expectations, and if you were a trainer is there a youngster who's looking more accomplished than his peers that you'd target to get more value than the claim?

As far as claimers riding over here go, I'd put forward Conor Shoemark. He's been a round a while now but he hasn't ridden out his claim and he rides Cheltenham (particularly chases), really well if he gets the right horse. We've also seen the emergence of Ryan Hatch and Jack Sherwood who look decent particularly in hurdles (I'm less convinced at the moment over fences). I'm sure there are one or two others too that could be put forward.

I'm less aware of the youngsters riding in Ireland, so I could do with a pre-Festival education from our informed Irish forumites if anyone hass any thoughts, ideas and recommendations.
 
I don't think jockeys make enough of a difference, for them to be a factor between winning and losing - with the possible exception of the amateurs races, where I always take note of where JJ Codd is jocked-up.
 
Grasshopper said:
I don't think jockeys make enough of a difference, for them to be a factor between winning and losing - with the possible exception of the amateurs races, where I always take note of where JJ Codd is jocked-up.
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Can't agree with that in any way, they make a huge difference Grassy. In terms of outcomes do you reckon you'd get the same result from a Ruby winning ride in the County Hurdle if David Maxwell had ridden it? Not a chance, and in jockey terms you've varying abilities all the way between the two of them.

The ability to judge pace, position a horse in the right place, when to let out an inch of reign, judgement of the particular course, ability to consistently know when to go long/short/fiddle one, understanding how a race may be run and changing tactics if its run differently, awareness of what your main dangers are doing at the same time when to make a move at the right time, strength at the finish, etc, etc, etc. I could go on.

The right jockey is even more vital in big fields which will mostly be encountered at the Festival. If you don't factor this in when making your selections at the Festival it's a big mistake in my opinion, particularly when there's potentially a reverse advantage to be had if there's young jockey under the radar that's worth more than his claim. Did you even consider Bryan Cooper's mounts a couple of season ago for example?
 
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And what race is David Maxwell going to ride against Ruby?

I was talking normal race scenarios, Paul - not fantasy ones.
 
Just quoting the extremes to demonstrate the difference the quality of pilot makes. I'm sure you get my point though. For me who's on board will makes a difference to what I'd back in a handicap.

I don't want to ignore a claimer if he's a good one which is easy to do. But also I don't want my money on a poor on a poor claimer on a horse that appears to have a chance on the book if you take the claim off.

Similarly there are plenty of seasoned jockeys that have a terrible Festival record and around Cheltenham full stop despite riding enough horses that had good chances on paper. David Casey for example has ridden over 100 horses at the Festival without a sniff of a winner.
 
Just quoting the extremes to demonstrate the difference the quality of pilot makes.
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Paul, there would be no need for a thread to state something that bleeding obvious! :)
 
I tend to take the view that the shape of the race largely takes care of the jockey situation.

A good yard without a retained rider is unlikely to secure the services of a David Maxwell if they really fancy one. At the same time, the main jockeys' agents will be trying to secure the best hopes for their employers so if Geraghty, for example, agrees to ride for a less well-known yard when another yard with which he has a more recognised association has one in the race which he was probably offered, then that has probably more importance than the simple fact that he's on it.
 
The chances of some young whippersnapper having a winner at the festival are extremely low.

Only one I can think of who isn't top drawer was Jeremiah McGrath when he rode that Uni something for NJH won about 33's or 50's

If your first name is Ruby or Barry you will do for me.

AP willl probably struggle unless he picks up a spare ride bewteeen now and then

If Sam Twiston Davies rides a winner it will need to be something that runs away with him :p

Love to see Davy Russell win a couple.

Keep a sharp eye on Tony Martin runners

Best pick your horse and it'll probably have a top jockey on it anyway......if it doesn't best you think again
 
Tanlic said:
The chances of some young whippersnapper having a winner at the festival are extremely low.

Only one I can think of who isn't top drawer was Jeremiah McGrath when he rode that Uni something for NJH won about 33's or 50's
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The Hatch lad rode a big-price winner for T-D a year or two ago while still claiming 7lbs.

I think you have to take each case on its merits. Chances are you'll dismiss nine out of ten but there are a lot of good claimers out there just now and I can see some trainers actively seeking them out, especially for the longer handicaps.

Just had a quick look at 2014:

Day 1: Brendan Powell (just out of his claim) won on Present View
Day 2: Nico De Boinville (5) won the Coral Cup

I reckon that must be about average.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The Hatch lad rode a big-price winner for T-D a year or two ago while still claiming 7lbs.

I think you have to take each case on its merits. Chances are you'll dismiss nine out of ten but there are a lot of good claimers out there just now and I can see some trainers actively seeking them out, especially for the longer handicaps.

Just had a quick look at 2014:

Day 1: Brendan Powell (just out of his claim) won on Present View
Day 2: Nico De Boinville (5) won the Coral Cup

I reckon that must be about average.
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Didn't Powell jnr have a couple of winners the year before, too?
 
I always liked Paul Carberry wearing a JP red or green or yellow cap.
Fota Island and Bellvano are two lovely winners that come to mind.
Also AJ Martin spoke of putting a claimer on Ted Veale; Shane Shortall or Luke Dempsey would do nicely.
 
Dan Skelton has a good young girl riding at his yard (not his brother's missus) - won't be riding there this year but from what I saw the other week at Godstone she'll be there in 3 or 4 years time.

Martin
 
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