John Smith's Cup, York Saturday July 13

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
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I know some of you don't like stats but for those that do, here they are for the last eleven years as posted by Richard Dunwoody on the SL site

The race in the last 11 years has been dominated by four and five-year-olds, with that age group winning 10 of the last 11 renewals between them - but if you want to take that trend a bit further then it's actually the four-year-olds that have held sway - winning seven of the last 11.

In terms of trainers to watch then anything Richard Fahey sends to post should be respected - he's won the race three times since 2002.

At this stage he's got too many entries to pin your hopes to just one, so it goes without saying to wait until later in the week for his final declarations, plus jockey bookings will also give us a few further clues on which ones he rates as his best chance.

We've seen six winners in the last 11 years return a double-figure price, so don't be too put off if you do fancy something further down the betting, but, that said, there have been two winning favourites too over that same period too.

Being a handicap then weight carried is another trend to note. All of the last seven runners have lumped just 8-12 or less, so again when we know the final card on Thursday we can apply this stat to further whittle down the field.

The draw also plays its part too as despite being a big-fielded race it's quite interesting that nine of the last 11 runners have hailed from stall nine or lower, while the other key stats to look out for are that 10 of the last 11 winners had previously won over at least 1m1f, plus eight of the last 11 had run between three and five times that season, while, finally, look for horses in form as seven of the last 11 finished in the top three last time.

John Smith's Cup - 11 Year Trends

11/11 - Aged 5 or younger

10/11 - Won over 1m1f or further previously

9/11 - Winners from stall 9 or higher

8/11 - Carried 9-2 or less in weight

8/11 - Had between 3-5 previous runs that season

7/11 - Top 3 finish in their latest race

7/11 - Aged 4 years-old

6/11 - Had raced at York before

6/11 - Officially rated between 99-105

3/11 - Won by the Richard Fahey yard

3/11 - Ran at Royal Ascot last time out

2/11 - Favourites (1 joint)

The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10.6/1


http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...10/54th-john-smith-39-s-cup-heritage-handicap
 
Wrote in the Ascot thread how much I fancied Lahaag for this. He's not been entered at the five day stage and Gosden relies on Nabucco who has similar credentials. I think the decent pace they'll go in this will suit him more than the steadyish pace they went in his Newmarket win.
 
Nabucco has the run of the race last time and was given a very good ride by R. Moore.
I dont think he will be involved.


I think Stencieve is the one to beat.
 
sunybay said:
Nabucco has the run of the race last time and was given a very good ride by R. Moore.
I dont think he will be involved.
Click to expand...

It seems that way but like I said there is the chance that a faster pace will suit him more as it took him a while to get on top. I think 16s is worth a go.

Stencieve is respected but he's short considering the drop in trip.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
John Smith's Cup - 11 Year Trends

11/11 - Aged 5 or younger [How many 6+yos with a realistic chance run?]

10/11 - Won over 1m1f or further previously [I wonder how many big 10+f handicaps haven't been won by something with this form.]

9/11 - Winners from stall 9 or higher [So a stall 8 or lower is no bar to success.]

8/11 - Carried 9-2 or less in weight [73% - what percentage of runners carry 9-2 or less?]

8/11 - Had between 3-5 previous runs that season [It's early July ffs. How many horses in a race like this would have run in more than 5? But again, the percentage of fanciable runners that had run 6+ times might be 17%.]

7/11 - Top 3 finish in their latest race [Again, probably bang on the percentages.]

7/11 - Aged 4 years-old [Probably bang on the percentages again.]

6/11 - Had raced at York before [So 5/11 hadn't!]

6/11 - Officially rated between 99-105 [Again, 5/11 -nearly half - fell outside that rating range.]

3/11 - Won by the Richard Fahey yard [So he targets the race - with how many runners? - but only wins every three years?]

3/11 - Ran at Royal Ascot last time out [Makes perfect sense.]

2/11 - Favourites (1 joint) [An 11/2 chance the favourite wins. What price is the favourite?]

The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10.6/1
Click to expand...

Certain stats can be telling but this kind of stuff gives stats a bad name.

(No offence, DG. The comments aren't aimed at you.)
 
Just to be a ****. (i've ignored the ones at the bottom because they are not stats, they are numbers). I have also assumed that this years running is typical.

11/11 - Aged 5 or younger (81% of entries aged 5 or younger)

10/11 - Won over 1m1f or further previously (can't be arsed checking)

9/11 - Winners from stall 9 or higher (dunno what the limit is - say 20 - you should only expect 6 winners from stall 9+)

8/11 - Carried 9-2 or less in weight (actually points towards higher weights as 26% of winners came from a group of 16% of runners)

8/11 - Had between 3-5 previous runs that season (38% of entries fall outside that category)

7/11 - Top 3 finish in their latest race (only 52% of entries fall into this category)

7/11 - Aged 4 years-old (50% of entries are this age).

If you stuck them in a Venn, you would find just 2 of the past 10 winners meeting all of the criteria. (5 if you remove the 4yo stat).

Beaumonts Party will win.
 
It's one of the richest handicaps of the season (worth more than most gp2's), so it's inevitably going to be targeted by classy, young and under-exposed horses - 5yo+ would be generally exposed, and few 3yo qualify (-11lb wfa). By the same token, many would have contested previous valuable handicaps, not a few which are run at Royal Ascot.
It's run at the premier Northen track, so inevitably, many of the classier types from the top half of the country will have course experience, and the size of the prize and the field ensures it's run at a proper pace so it's unlikely to attract doubtful stayers.
Like most decent stats, they're common-sense based, but give no great insight as they apply equally to the majority of major handicaps throughout the season.
 
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