John Smiths

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,034
I'm surprised no-one has started a thread on this, one of the biggest races of the season.

I'll start.

Laterly 118+
Jaser 118
Ra Junior 118+
Sweet Lightning 118p
Mutajarred 117
Re Barolo 117
Albaqaa 117+p
Medici Pearl 117t
Seeking The Buck 117
Riggins 116+p
Ladies Best 116
Ben Chorley116p
Deep Winter 116
Moonquake 115p
Unbreak My Heart115
Opera Prince 115(117+p) RES
Nanton 114
Alazeyab 114p
Demolition 113RES
Kingdom Of Fife 112p
Sirvino 110+p
Love Galore ?

This is one of my favourite races of the year. It usually goes to an improver so I’ll be concentrating on those that appear to have possibilities of hitting or surpassing the norm (121). In ratings order, they are Laterly, Ra Junior, Sweet Lightning, Albaqaa, Riggins, Ben Chorley, Moonquake and possibly Opera Prince if it gets in. I reckon the likes of Alazeyab and Kingdom Of Fife might just have too much to find compared with these. From this group, I’d focus on the ‘+p’ horses that are less than 7lbs behind the top, so that gives us Albaqaa and Riggins as the two against the field. Albaqaa’s draw might be a problem but a fast pace could help string them out early and allow him to tuck in from wide, a scenario that has helped high draws take three of the last five runnings. My heart says Albaqaa becaue I’m a big fan of the trainer but the head says Riggins’s low draw could be the deciding factor.
 
Cheers, Desert Orchid.

No strong opinion on the race myself, though I was taken with Moonquake when he won over 10f at the Dante meeting; can almost guarantee he will be a standout in the paddock as well.
 
I like Kingdom of Fife for this. His Redcar win has worked out well with the second and third also placing at the Royal Meeting. He's won over the trip and had plenty in hand last time.
 
It was a good race and the fact they were pretty strung out at the end suggests it is strong form, not to be underestimated.

As I suspected, Albaqaa's draw was a handicap but he might not have won anyway. The winner was in a similar position at the back turning for hom but got a dream run - and first run on Albaqaa - up the inside. Albaqaa was bustled along early before the jockey realised it was to no avail and he wisely eased him back but some damage was probably already done.

I'll have to go back and look again at the races the first two came from as I'll probably have to adjust them upwards. The winner is a really likeable type. You can't argue with a five-timer and the horse wasn't exactly plotted up for the race, which is good for the sport.

I got a fair run from Albaqaa but should really have backed it each-way as I got 20/1 this morning. I was being greedy.

Riggins was very disappointing.
 
First rule of handicap betting is never touch a horse who hasn't won over the trip

I like that rule

trip isn't far behind going when it comes to weighing a race up imo
 
Yep. Warringah looked a tempting bet on the face of it in the 3.45 but his winning has all been done over 11 and 12f and sure enough he got collared on the line.

EDIT: The Cambridgeshire is the only exception I make as it's such a rare trip for a major handicap. I do like a prospective bet to have won over 10f though. The trip is the reason I rarely touch the Ebor.
 
I backed Riggins and thought he should have won by few lengths, probally needed firmer ground.
 
Euronymous said:
First rule of handicap betting is never touch a horse who hasn't won over the trip. One of the worst favourites of the year.
Click to expand...

It's a rule I have in mind regardless of whether it's a handicap or not but if you stuck to it blindly you'd miss a helluva lot of winners stepping up to trip that they've been crying out for, especially improving 3yos. And I don't recall you saying before the race that Riggins was one of the worst favourites of the year.
 
Thats not a bad record actually in competetive handicaps

he is overbet though because it has always been one of his traits to target big handicaps

did he train Dallas?.. i remeber backing that in the Cambridgeshire...ran on the July course as I remember
 
There are also certain very valuable handicaps he targets more intently too. His record in them is quite impressive. Didn't he make the Extel H'cap (and its modern equivalent) at Glorious Goodwood virtually 'his', likewise the Old Newton Cup at Haydock?

Mind you, I backed Albaqaa partly because of Fahey's record in the race. I still think the horse was a shade unlucky.
 
EC1 said:
First rule of handicap betting is never touch a horse who hasn't won over the trip

I like that rule

trip isn't far behind going when it comes to weighing a race up imo
Click to expand...

I think this rule is aload of b/s if you ask me sorry.
 
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