July Cup

[barjon]

Sectionals



Cumulative sectionals




1st Shaquille
5/2 jf
awkward and slowly away, keen in rear, rapid headway to join leader halfway, led over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ran on


2nd Run to Freedom
1 ½ l
28/1
in touch towards rear, ridden and headway approaching final furlong, stayed on to go 2nd final strides

3rd Kinross
Short Head
4/1
in touch, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, stayed on one pace and lost 2nd final strides


4th Art Power (IRE)
1 ¼ l
14/1
led, joined halfway, headed over 2f out, tracked winner, ridden and kept on same pace final furlong


5thKhaadem (IRE)
¾ l
25/1
keen, in touch towards rear, pushed along and headway approaching final furlong, kept on, never nearer


6th Azure Blue (IRE)
6 ½ l
5/1
keen close up, lost place 3f out, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong


7th Vadream
1 ½ l
33/1
tracked leaders, pushed along 2f out, ridden and weakened final furlong


8th Little Big Bear (IRE)
10 l
5/2 jf
tracked leader until halfway, tracked leaders, pushed along 2f out, weakening when short of room and hampered over 1f out





16:35 Newmarket (July 15th): Racing Post

Two of the four main players failed to give their running in a strange race, the winner keeping going best despite again blowing the start and tanking his way through to lead before halfway. They raced centre-field, with each of the first three edging or hanging left inside the last.


SHAQUILLE had come from last place to win the Commonwealth Cup and did so again on this first start against older rivals, having repeated his party trick of jumping in the air as the stalls opened. He looked to have pulled his chance away, quickly carting his way forward early on, and it was striking how well he kept going, albeit hanging left in the latter stages. This bare form is nothing amazing for the top level, but to win back-to-back Group 1s while doing so much wrong shows he's an exceptionally talented colt, and it'd be fascinating to see just how highly he could rate with a more professional display. He might have the speed for 5f, yet he sees out this trip strongly. His next start could come in the 6.5f Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest atDeauville in August.

RUN TO FREEDOM reversed form with the third, helped by the rain and just taking second despite hanging. He's not straightforward but is capable of high-class sprint form when getting his conditions, and it'll likely be the Haydock Sprint Cup next.

KINROSS a two-time Group 1 winner last autumn, including when beating this runner-up readily on Champions Day at Ascot, looked in need of the run on his reappearance at Royal Ascot and the softening ground was in his favour, but he was plenty keen enough early on and never looked like getting level with the winner. This wasn't his best form and he'll likely return to Goodwood next for the Lennox Stakes, a race he was just denied in last year but won in 2021.

ART POWER ran much better than at Royal Ascot, when 8l adrift of surprise winner Khaadem, the smaller field and slower ground being in his favour. He just had no answer as the winner took it up off him.

KHADEEM a shock winner of the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, receiving a fine Jamie Spencer ride, wasn't as effective on this slower ground in a different type of race.

AZURE BLUE, kept aside for this since winning the Group 2 Duke of York in May, was weak in the betting and failed to pick up, having been headstrong with limited cover. Her trainer is a dab hand with sprinters, especially improving fillies, so it's worth giving her another chance, with her rider reporting she ran too free.

VADREAM could have done with more rain, but even so this was a flat effort.

LITTLE BIG BEAR, whose participation had been in doubt after a small setback, was allowed to take his chance and met strong support in the betting, but he was struggling to hold his place when squeezed out quite badly, his rider soon easing him off.

 

[Desert Orchid]

First, re reet's reference to post #36 on the other thread:

July Cup
Visually,it was an uneven pace throughout, with the majority of the field taking a grip in one form or another (RP in-running comments confirm) and the winner came away from the field without undue pressure - neither of which are indicative of a truly run gp1 sprint, imo.Those alone raise questions about the validity of the form.
Apparently, the groundwas drying throughout the day.owing to the stiff breeze and any going allowance generated by the clockers can only be a guess,which casts further doubt on the validity of any sectional appraisal.
A simple and straightforward view which can be easily verified, yet SR and others are inferring it was the second coming?
Sure,it was a impressive win and Shaquille may go on to consolidate it, but the non-sectional view is more aware of what actually happened in the race,and will treat the winner's form with caution.

That is neither "clear" nor is it "evidence". It is one forumite's opinion and carries no weight other than to the holder.

The RP comments as posted above, no disrespect to Bj, aren't copied in their entirety. The comment for Kinross should read (the emphasis is mine):

Took keen hold, towards rear, in touch with leaders over 3f out, disputing second when ridden and edged left 1f out, kept on (tchd 7/2)

So, the runner-up raced "towards rear". the third "towards rear", and the fifth "towards rear".

The fourth led early and kept on at the same pace.

The sixth was "keen, close up" and weakened.

The seventh "tracked leaders" before weakening.

The eighth "tracked leaders" was hampered and eased.

Those are the comments of an experienced race-reader with the advantage of watching several replays. I almost always check such comments when doing my own assessment of a race, along with checking my own time ratings and figures from previous performances in order to arrive at, for me, a 'best-fit' conclusion.

From those comments, I would conclude a race that was at least to some extent run faster than even, since the pace horses, bar the winner, "weakened" and the ones that raced "towards rear" have finished in the places. Art Power arguably ran better than his finishing position since he led early and didn't "weaken" as such. He franked the form on Saturday.

That would be my personal interpretation of how the race was run and it would seem the sectionals and SR are in broad agreement. But at least I am open to concrete evidence, as opposed to individual opinion, yet to be presented, that Form Book race-readers, sectional times and SR are all wrong.

I think it is a no-brainer to conclude that Shaquille is better than the bare form but that he didn't beat anything much of note.

 

[barjon]

Yea, sorry. The race comments are from RaceTV and the analysis comments from Racing Post.

I think the colour coded cumulative sectionals which show the position of the horses furlong by furlong which, together with the sectional and cumulative times are the evidential facts at those stages. Interpretation of those facts and visual races reading are not facts, but informed opinions (that’s not to decry them, of course).

However, it’s not apparent from the figures how Shaquille came to be next to last at the end of the first furlong, but those who watched or read the race reports know well. Similarly with the dramatic slowdown of Little Big Bear . (Incidentally, I hadn’t appreciated until I read RP analysis today that LBB had suffered a setback making him doubtful for the race - maybe he’s being written off to quickly as Reet suggests.

As for the race itself, we’ve done Shaquille to death. Suffice to say I think he is underrated since to do what he did (twice now) against Group1 sprinters needs something special. I’d draw attention to Run to Freedom who raced last for three furlongs and second to last at the end of the fourth furlong (although put in the fastest sectional), then put in the fastest fifth furlong to go second (?) and regain that near the line. (? Didn’t look to me as if he ever headed Kinross at the end of the fifth, although he did hang quite badly so could have lost some - but that’s what the timings say). Regardless, it was a good run by RTF

 

[Desert Orchid]

No apology necessary, BJ, I thought maybe you were copying and pasting and missed a bit, that's all.

 

[reet hard]

Jeez
Your 'exoperienced ace reader' wrote:
Shaquille pulled hard
Kinross took keen hold
Azure Blue took keen hold
Khaadem took keen hold
That's 5 from a field of 8 for which the early pace wasn't quick enough.
Shaqhille also came away from the field in a manner unusual in strongly run gp1 6f racwhich suggests he's either Pegasus or the pace wasn't strong.
Your conclusions are just that, and I'm aware you don't don't like being wrong, bu this is a discussion on the merits,or otherwise of sectionals, not an ego battle. so I'll depart this tedious discussion with following statement:
Sectionals are valuable when proper account is taken of how the horses ran and why.
Accepting figures as gospel is endemic, but not enough for the diligent eye.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Horses can pull hard while going fast.

I'd have thought the country's most gifted race-reader would know that.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I’d draw attention to Run to Freedom who raced last for three furlongs and second to last at the end of the fourth furlong (although put in the fastest sectional), then put in the fastest fifth furlong to go second (?) and regain that near the line. (? Didn’t look to me as if he ever headed Kinross at the end of the fifth, although he did hang quite badly so could have lost some - but that’s what the timings say). Regardless, it was a good run by RTF

Absolutely. I think RTF's 102% finish is closest to par. He has run the most efficiently, for which the jockey deserves credit, and did so by coming from off the pace. I think he has run his race and is the best marker for the form.

But I might be in a school of one with that. It's something I'll live with.

 

[barjon]

I’ll be there when teach calls the register