July Meeting - Lays

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
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19,119
Location
Leyland
I`ve decided after my horror show at Ascot that I`m laying only here. It`s a meeting I`ve never done well in soooo i`ve emptied my Betfair account of all but £150 and i`m gonna risk that.

Tuesday:

Darjina - laid @ 3.55 for for £30 (Liability - £76.50)

I like the filly but i`ve gone through a few forecasts and it`s odds-on that it`s gonna rain quite a bit tomorrow. I therefore expect her to drift and maybe even be pulled out. If she drifts and stays in i may trade.
 
I'm 18 miles from Newmarket and it's been raining all morning, and also rained in the night. Before that however we'd had a long dry spell so I wouldn't think the ground is anywhere near Soft yet, I'd estimate it's still Good, if my lawn is anything to go by - the car is parked on it to unpack, and hasn't sunk in!
 
No bet on Wednesday with Darjina`a absence so on to Thursday:

Anna Pavlova Laid @3.05 for £50 (Liability - £102.50)


I know she likes soft ground but come on, she`s up against colts here in the Princess of Wales and she carries a penalty that nullifies her sex allowance. I suppose she`s favourite by default what with form doubts about Sagara and ground worries about Papal Bull. But a little over 2/1 is the wrong price.
 
First rule of punting ~ never oppose a bitch/filly in form. I'm not a backer at that price, but I'd want to have her on side unless that price got silly, which it won't.
 
I take your point and it`s ultra valid. But Papal Bull won this last year and the Coronation Cup form is working like a dream. He should be favourite for this.
 
Surely you're better off backing Papal Bull than in laying the favourite then, Euronymous?

I will be taking on Brae Hill at 3's or shorter in the 2yo 6f novice.
 
trackside528 said:
Surely you're better off backing Papal Bull than in laying the favourite then, Euronymous?
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If i wasn`t in lay mode i`d have backed Papal Bull and had a saver on Sagara. I`d have been a bit rueful given that i punted Lucarno in the race last year.

Anyway, i traded slightly on Anna Pavlova (£10 @ 3.35) so my bank now is £188.

Today:

US Ranger Laid for a Place @ 2.88 for £60 (Liabilty - £112.80)
 
I studied that race for half an hour this morning trying to come up with a lay and the only alternative i found to place laying US Ranger was a win lay of Marchand Dor. That`s how bad i am at sprints.
 
I laid Marchand Dor for a place after deciding last night that a place on War Artist was the bet of the day.
 
Euronymous said:
No bet on Wednesday with Darjina`a absence so on to Thursday:

Anna Pavlova Laid @3.05 for £50 (Liability - £102.50)


I know she likes soft ground but come on, she`s up against colts here in the Princess of Wales and she carries a penalty that nullifies her sex allowance. I suppose she`s favourite by default what with form doubts about Sagara and ground worries about Papal Bull. But a little over 2/1 is the wrong price.
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Admittedly I don't recall seeing her in the flesh before [so this may be normal behaviour] but she moved to post like a crab; looked a terrible mover, or even as though she was feeling something. Of course she may move like that anyway but it did look bad and it's generally the sprinters that get away with moving that badly rather than the stayers.
 
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