What can I say about the Hexham race? While the selection did went 1.05 at the last and I did technically get the reverse forecast, the emphatic and complete depletion of this season's Juvenile kitty unequivocally states that when I get it wrong, I get it very wrong indeed. At least one can take comfort in the fact that if an "Arbitrary 1" flops, I won't lose any money. So after a brief hiatus, the thread goes from the land of castles to the land of a bloke who wrote several plays based in castles. The third Juvenile race of the season takes place at Stratford and with five fair recruits from the flat, including three winners, the winner of this will probably take the mantle of this season's leader.
The Raven Master made his racecourse debut in March and has had five starts thus far, finishing placed on the latter two. He was third at Lingfield on his handicap bow over a mile and a half where held the lead up to the last half furlong before occupying the same position in a Beverley handicap on his first run on turf. The form is taking a solid if unspectacular shape about it and would be within half a stone of the other leading contenders in this field. He has joined Dan Skelton's in-form yard from Michael Bell who is one of the leading sources of juvenile hurdlers including the likes of Ruacana, Forth Bridge and Rock Of Leon who won first time out for the same, Dan Skelton. The trip and ground ought to be within his remit and while there would be a slight concern over his being an entire, he's appeared straightforward enough on all racecourse appearances thus far. Mauricio starts his hurdling career for the red hot Dr Richard Newland yard after being claimed out of a poor, soft ground Roscommon Maiden Claimer. He ran away a convincing winner as he was entitled to on the pick of his debut run at Dundalk where he finished five lengths behind Chester Vase third and Coolmore pacemaker The Anvil, and three lengths ahead of the 80 rated Modern Approach. Between those two runs, he finished closer to last than first in three maidens on decent ground and still looked fairly green when breaking his duck last time out. Lucky Esteem had four starts as a two year old, twice finishing runner up in seven furlong Musselburgh maidens. She has not been seen since August last year although there is the sense that this is a Roger Brookhouse personal project as he owned the dam, Dream Esteem (placed in the Swinton Hurdle and at the Aintree festival), along with the sire who was fairly useful on the flat but didn't quite match that level in three runs over hurdles. Lucky Esteem has joined a perfectly capable yard for juvenile hurdling although stallions from the Storm Cat line have been unconvincing in their attempts to produce young hurdlers. Taxmeifyoucan won on his seasonal reappearance at Southwell mile and a half handicap by an intriguing fifteen lengths. What's more, the runner up that day has made the frame on each of his five starts. However, that race basically fell apart in front of him and he's since demonstrated in three subsequent starts that he essentially has one gear and will probably be suited to a bit further in time. Phoenix Dawn is the most experienced horse in the field and took a Windsor nursery last October. Of his three starts this term, his best was when second in a Salisbury classified stakes and while it wasn't the classiest affair, he did well to recover from some severe traffic issues. It is also intriguing that his full brother, Xenophon, took this corresponding contest in 2011 for the same yard. However, the yard bang out of form, there may be more favourable opportunities in time. The unraced Bab El Mandeb makes the long journey from Kinross and his trainer can get juvenile winners. However, there is very little evidence on paper to suggest he's a patent hurdler. Kenyan has improved on each of his four runs although his finest effort last time out came when eight lengths fifth in a Lingfield handicap off 47. He should stay the trip and Seamus Durack can get early season juveniles but Kenyan needs to find some improvement here. Yorkshire Star finished just over three lengths second in a Leicester debut last July and regressed on his subsequent five starts. He's since been gelded since he was last seen in the autumn but there's nothing in his pedigree to suggest he can stay the trip even if he had the class to be competitive here. Piccoloro has been beaten a combined 115 lengths in three maiden races and his trainer has had just one jumps winner in three years.
Arbitrary 1-2-3
1) The Raven Master
2) Mauricio
3) Lucky Esteem
Relatives
Lucky Esteem 2/1 I'm So Lucky 1st Celebration Chase (G2), Sandown 2010
Piccoloro 5/4 Sky's The Limit 1st Coral Cup (144), Cheltenham 2006
Mauricio 3/2 Ring The Boss 2nd Kingmaker Novices' Chase (G2), Warwick 2008*
Yorkshire Star 4/4 Sotovik 1st 3m Handicap Hurdle (117), Perth 2012
Kenyan 3/1 House Music 1st 2m2f Prix Beugnot Hcp Hurdle (Listed), Auteuil 2007
Taxmeifyoucan 2/1 Double Account 1st 3m1f Handicap Hurdle (114), Huntingdon 2003
The Raven Master 2/1 Almarmooq 1st 4m Pennsylvania Hunt Cup (Listed), Unionville 2015
Phoenix Dawn 1/1 Xenophon 2nd 2m Handicap Hurdle (112), Hereford 2012
Bab El Mandeb no jumps relatives
*Mauricio also 3/2 Theatre Girl, Flash Of Genius, Confilct Of Interest, 3/3 Sizing Symphony, Monbeg Theatre, 3/4 Overland Flyer
Sires
The Raven Master - Raven's Pass (3) 28% jumps winners/runners
Taxmeifyoucan - Beat Hollow (1) 44%
Phoenix Dawn - Phoenix Reach 32%
Kenyan - Kendargent 24% FRA (0-2 UK)
Yorkshire Star - Fast Company 21%
Piccoloro - Piccolo 14%
Bab El Mandeb - Blame 0% (0-1)
Mauricio - Helmet no jumps runners
Lucky Esteem - Yorgunnabelucky no jumps runners