Kauto Star

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BennyB

Senior Jockey
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Slightly early for a jumping thread perhaps, but I’ve just been reading about Kauto on the RP site – apparently he’s well and being aimed at the Haydock race

As you’d expect, there are plenty of comments calling for him to be retired. It’s not my intention to open this can of worms, save to say that if I had a horse which had been placed in the KG and the GC last year he’d be going for those races again. Just because one youngster appears to have improved past him isn’t a reason to retire him, provided he’s still enjoying his racing.

The point I wanted to raise (or question I wanted to ask), was why Haydock? I appreciate he’s a multiple winner of the race, but his form in doing so is somewhat below his best – narrow defeats of Imperial Commander and Exotic Dancer (both fantastic horses but not in the same league), and the disaster the year Snoopy Loopy won. Given that all the evidence points to him going best fresh nowadays, wouldn’t it be better to train him for a final crack at the KG, and then go for the GC if he runs well at Kempton? If it was felt he needed a race before Kempton, Down Royal would be more suitable surely.

Anyway, just wondered what everyone thought; hope it’s not too mundane a topic.
 
Never too early for a jumping thread, Benny! My season started yesterday with the Kerry National.

Kauto is an interesting and remarkable horse in that he has held his form for so long at the top level.

The Betfair chase is becoming a warm-up for the KGC so, it is probably being used to gauge the level of Kauto's well-being and ability.

Paul Nicholls has said that it would be unkind to take him out of a racing environment where he has been the centre of attention for so long, so it sounds as though this race will be a testing of the waters and that his connections have other options in mind for him.

Wonder how he'd cope with a cross-country course? :whistle:
 
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I think the Betfair is fine. They will target it, unlike previous years when the KG and GC were the targets. It's a bit like Brave Inca when he came back from injury. His Cheltenham was the Irish Champion Hurdle whereas in previous years it was a race on the way to Cheltenham. Kauto will be spot on for that race.
 
That's a good point; I hadn't thought of it like that. However, if you were to target him at one race, surely a shot a a fifth KG? (Though I obviously appreciate LR is also at his best round Kempton.)
 
I disagree - why are you so sure?

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't make him favourite, but he'd stand a reasonable chance surely?
 
If Long Run doesn't turn up \falls \ underperforms for whatever reason, why wouldn't he have every chance? His run in the race last year clearly wasn't his true form judging by the Gold Cup run - if he reproduced that form he would beat everything bar Long Run.
 
I dunno about that, Euro. The only race that's really upholding the form of the King George (in terms of the level it's being pitched at) is the Gold Cup - with the latter being slightly stronger for me.

I personally don't think Long Run has done enough to merit a 182 rating, but I'd be fairly confident that he should probably be beating Kauto Star a few more times than not, from now on. Age withers them all eventually, and there are clear signs (for me, at any rate) that Kauto is on the downgrade.

I've a theory that - because Kauto has so far to fall in terms of his previous best rating - it gives the false impression that he is still capable of running to marks in the 170+ bracket, even whilst in decline. The form of a top-class horse generally tends to fall off a cliff, rather than decrease in smooth gradients (Moscow Flyer probably the best contemporary example I can think of), and in my view, a case can be made for down-grading the Gold Cup - and therefore the KG. No matter. Time For Rupert apart (and he's trained by a tit), I found it difficult to get excited about last season's staying novices and all other things being equal, Long Run should win at Kempton.

Getting back to the original topic, I remain a sceptic about connections decision to keep Kauto Star in training.

Regardless of what he's "showing at home", I do think he is probably now at the stage where a deep form decline is more-or-less inevitable, and I am girding myself to see him struggle.

The decision to go to Haydock is particularly puzzling, as he just doesn't look comfortable on that track, and there were surely more suitable options? I think Nicholls and Smith are throwing him in there to see how he fares in a small field against Long Run, and there won't be a King George run if he doesn't finish within 10L.
 
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BennyB said:
I disagree - why are you so sure?
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He doesn't have the toe anymore and he stopped quickly at Cheltenham. His last five starts are F133P, and the win was the easiest race they could have found for him. I think the best chance they have of winning another grade 1 with him is first time up, get him fit while others are focused on the longer term. I think they are right to keep him in training for one more season but they need to focus on big wins from the outset.
 
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