Kempton Day 1

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
Joined
Jan 24, 2008
Messages
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Location
London
Novice Hurdle:
Tetlami is my idea of getting the Xmas racing off to a great start. He really impressed me at Sandown the last day, making a lovely shape at his hurdles, and finding plenty to win well from 3 useful horses looking like there is more to come.

Book'em Danno (IRE) 42
Agent Archie (USA) 46
Plenty Pocket (FR) 38
Tetlami (IRE) 23
Kuilsriver (IRE) 283
Specialagent Alfie 48
Vulcanite (IRE) 65

Feltham:
I like Bob's Worth a lot, and am more than happy for him to continue to drift.

Bobs Worth (IRE) 31
Grands Crus (FR) 32
Mr Moonshine (IRE) 18
Silviniaco Conti (FR) 51
Teaforthree (IRE) 23
Emmaslegend 13

Xmas Hurlde:
Hard to fancy Binocular for this. Rock on Ruby the obvious improver but Overturn, presuming he isn't being sent to the well too often, sets a high standard this season.

Binocular (FR) 30
Clerk's Choice (IRE) 16
Overturn (IRE) 16
Rock On Ruby (IRE) 30
Sanctuaire (FR) 16
 
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I'm more taken with Grands Crus than Bob's Worth.

Haven't given up on Binocular yet and find it hard to fancy anything else. I'd prefer to take 16s or 14s for the Champion than back him for this though.
 
It could be one race too many for Overturn, I don't fancy him for this one.

I'm looking forward to the Feltham nearly as much as the King George. Grands Crus might have too much speed for Bobs Worth, while I wouldn't rule out Silviano Conti. Can't wait.
 
Signing off now, so you're on your own... have a blast!!! peace and joy (...somewhat contradictory). Stay solvent.;)
 
Good luck for Boxing day everyone.

Rock on Ruby and Grand Crus in a boxing day double for me.
 
The 9/2 on Knight Pass in the last may actually be the best bet at Kempton. He ran very well giving 7 pounds to Tetlami (see above), and is let in on his handicap debut off 125. If he is a 125 horse, I'll eat my hat. I would see him as a mid 130s horse with room for improvement, so will be very, very surprised if he doesn't go very close.
 
I cant seem to get away from Grands Cru. I like the way he jumps and the way he sticks neck out and thrives on his running. He clearly has the hurdles class but perhaps there is a slight concern that its first time right handed chasing

Bobs Worth made a couple too many mistakes last time for me. Silviano has a fair bit of ground to make up through Cue Card
 
12:50 - Kuilsriver 14/1 strikes me as value for a small 20/80 bet his proximity to Brampour when just in front and just behind that horse in two races against him looks solid form - if he's trained on he can uphold the form of the Triumph hurdle which I suspect was above average. I'm worried about Tetlami bouncing.

1:25 - Trafalgar Road 9/1 small e/way - well thought of in the yard and expected to progress.

2:00 Grand Crus (lay) - Love this horse but he was well beaten both times he ran on a sharp right handed track.

2:35 Binocular 2/1 - always seems to improve a lot from his first run of the season and I expect he'll be hard to beat here.

3:10 Long Run - win - Somersby e/way

Long Run
Kauto Star
Somersby
Straight tricast.

Been hearing very good things about Captain Chris but both he and Master Minded have to prove to me they get 3m - will be happy if these bets go down if Kauto wins though.

3:40 - Kells Belle e/way Nap 11/1 P/P - Busker Royale e/way saver 20/1 P/P Nicky Henderson has farmed this race over the last few years - his record:

2010 - Meeting abandoned
2009 - Polyfast - F De Giles won 11/1 by 3 1/2L - Wogan 2nd 9/2
2008 - Royaleety - C Wallis(7) won 25/1 by 2 1/2L - Working Title 5th 4/1
2007 - Princelet - A P McCoy 2nd 11/4 btn 2 1/2L
2006 - Marhabal - M Fitzgerald - won 10/3 by 5L
2005 - Afrad - B Geraghty - won 6/1 by 5L - meeting was held at Sandown
2004 - No runners
 
chroniclandlord said:
It could be one race too many for Overturn, I don't fancy him for this one.
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Agreed. I make Binocular the bet if back to his very best. Be interested to see what Nicky Henderson says about him beforehand.

Very pleased there is a good left field choice to win the KG in Somersby. I was touting him on here last year as a horse to follow and the thought of not having a penny on and watching him win would be too much for me to handle.

And a saver on Golan Way (e/w) for the hell of it. Long Run has the raw speed over 3M nowadyas based on what I've seen, but he'll have to be better than Arkle to jump like he did last time and still win a race of this calibre. I reckon he'll drift on the day based on the jumping concerns. Could be booked for second imo.

Tough judgement call on Kauto but I reckon he will bounce: if so hope he comes back safe and sound. Master Minded won't stay and Captain Chris won't be good enough.:)
 
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For a horse that keeps on winning Bobs Worth must be a bet -maybe in running.
I think Long Run is a penalty kick-his race to lose.
 
Bobs Worth at 11/4 -yes please

Knockara Beau looks solid value in the Roland Meryick

Bumper at Wincanton Kilrye on debut for the Pipe stable

Enjoy the feast- be lucky folks:whistle:
 
LUKE said:
For a horse that keeps on winning Bobs Worth must be a bet -maybe in running.
I think Long Run is a penalty kick-his race to lose.
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Snap on both counts.

I have a bad feeling Kauto could bomb. I'd really love Captain Chris to get the trip as I think he's a weapon! Will be doing Long Run to beat CC in the fc.
 
PRICEWISE2008 said:
Knockara Beau looks solid value in the Roland Meryick
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I think he has a good E/W chance but handicapper might have his measure now.

Halley on the other hand is totally unexposed and has some excellent form in France. He'll certainly not be inconvienced by the forecast soft ground. He's my pick at Wetherby.

Best of luck to everyone.:)
 
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I wasn't going to back him but with the best news you could posssibly get coming out of Seven Barrows that Binocular is back I guess I have no choice. Unlike other time when it's been "He's looking well: Or "He should run really well" It's more closer to "he'll absolutely pi$$ up".

Really when you think about it he ran better in the FF than he has before and if he has improved normally he should kick Overturn into the middle of next week, a horse who has as much chance of winning Champion Hurdle as Paul Nichols has of becoming Champion Jockey.

A lot of people will be looking for a good start to the day and could be split between the Henderson Horse and The Nichols horse I've alread backed Nicky's Tetlami who I reckon could be one of his better novice hurdlers.

Grand Crus I can understand people backing but can also understand people laying him. Track suits but I don't partuclary like the horse. It's weird but he gives me the impression he is about to clout one like he's an accident waiting to happen. Probably my imagination but I'm leaving him alone today.

Temple Lord, Bless the Wings, Semi Colon, That'lldoboy, will have their supporters but there seeems to be a lot of confidence behind Trafalger Road who won depite needing the race at Sandown. If he has improved he should beat Lock Ba much easier than last time which would give him a big shout in this. EW Trafalger Road for me.

The fact AP rides C. Wren will make him a popular choice which may cause a lack of market confidence in Mauritino but whether or not AP would have Chosen C.Wren has he had a choice is debateable. With a first class 7 lb claimer on the Jackdaw horse, who has won 4 on the bounce, he could be a penalty kick in this.
 
Hamm said:
The 9/2 on Knight Pass in the last may actually be the best bet at Kempton. He ran very well giving 7 pounds to Tetlami (see above), and is let in on his handicap debut off 125. If he is a 125 horse, I'll eat my hat. I would see him as a mid 130s horse with room for improvement, so will be very, very surprised if he doesn't go very close.
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Hope you cashed in Hamm - both he and Tetlami almost got me out of a brutal day. Well done
 
If it wasn't for Kempton it would have been a great
day for me-Grand Crus and Kauto were expensive mistakes.
 
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