Kempton Listed race Wednesday 7.05

EC1

EC1

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Think this race is worth a mull over because I think the even money fav is a big lay at evens..so there has got to be some over-inflated prices here.

I've not had a good look at owt yet but the fav just stands out as very beatable for a couple of good reasons in my book.

Lets make some cash then:)
 
Hmm, I posted almost the exact opposite on the Todays Fancy thread!

I'm not saying I'd pile in at odds on, or Evs, but I struggle to find the opposistion to beat him, Man of Iron being the one I would fear most if the first time headgear and Fallon does the trick.
 
Man Of Iron and Dansili Dancer are the two I'd be interested in here.

However, Man Of Iron at 12/1 is a very good bet imo. The last time him and the fav met on synthetics (a year ago in the BC Marathon at Santa Anita), Man Of Iron had the upper hand. I know that MoI has regressed since then but synthetics are his game and he's only ran on them once since (arguably his best start for Cumani and held up off a slow pace). The first time blinkers should help him concentrate again and with Classic Punch in the field to take them along at a decent clip, I'd be keen to take the 12s about him.

Nearly a year since he did me a good turn in LA too!
 
Steve T said:
Hmm, I posted almost the exact opposite on the Todays Fancy thread!

I'm not saying I'd pile in at odds on, or Evs, but I struggle to find the opposistion to beat him, Man of Iron being the one I would fear most if the first time headgear and Fallon does the trick.
Click to expand...


One reason imo to be against the fav..the sire offspring stike rate is half the average when running on the AW

If i doubt a horse on a surface..I wouldn't be backing at evens
 
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Might as well mention second negative..the fav needs a stiffer test

any horse that Cavalryman and AOA can make look one paced over 12f must be slow :)
 
Although I respect indicators like your first stat on the sire off spring strike rate, I prefer to take each case individually - Mastery was beaten less than a length on the surface, staying on over an inadequate 9f, (which brings us to your second point) as well as the decent enough run behind Man of Iron on the synthetic at Santa Anita.

As for the distance, he ran a good race last time in the Group 3, staying on over 9f behind 2 real course specialists and was a real eye catcher for a step up to either 12f or further. He might well go further than tomorrows distance, but I don't think it'll be the reason for defeat with Classic Punch sure to set a decent pace and 2 stablemates also in the race.

I'm not saying he's a pile in at his now odds on, but I think the 11/8 previously available massively underestimated his chance. I wouldn't lay him against tomorrows opposition.
 
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I also think he will probably win, and am a fan of the horse but the value bet now is Age of Reason. The second best horse in the race, and if Hills can get in front, he could really get them on the stretch. 12/1 each way is huge.
 
Kings Destiny now a NR so 10/11 best price and as short as 8/11. Age of Reason, although drawn inside, will do well to head Classic Punch and any kind of pace battle up front will only play into those coming from behind to pick them off.

When you look at the market and see Dansili Dancer & Dansant as 2nd favourites, it looks more and more like 'how far' for the favourite.
 
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I'm not sure Mastery was an eye-catcher for stepping up in trip last time. I don't think he's any closer at the finish than he was over 1f out and he makes his ground up smoothly. The main thing I took out from that race was his awkward head carriage. Nobody would dispute that he has the very best form. I just think you have to go too far back to be confident he can still reproduce it, and you also have the dobts as to whether a test of speed at 12f will play to his strengths. I think he's a very short price and is opposable at odds on.

I think Man Of Iron backers are putting a lot of faith in first-time headgear. Ven if the September Stakes didn't pan out his way, he still made very little in roads that day and his latest effort on turf was a shocker.

Suggestions of 'how far' for the favourite when assessing Dansili Dancer grossly underestimate the form he showed when winning the Roseberry in the spring in a hack-canter I think. Okay we don't have John Fahy's claim this time, but I think the limited evidence shows that Dansili Dancer is a much better horse on polytrack. That form puts thereabouts with the rest and I think he has fewer doubts than them. I'll be shocked if he's out of the 3 and think he has a very good chance of overturning the favourite. Certianly much better than 8/1 would suggest.
 
Dansant is pretty good here but i'm not happy with first time visor as it may mean a tussle with Classic Punch early on.

Dansili Dancer even though OHR 108 has only won handicaps in the past..beaten 6 times when outside that sphere..same again i reckon.


Man Of iron + Age Of Reason + Classic Punch at around 14/1+16/1+12/1 for me..a tenner on each
 
I like the look of Skeleton in the 6.05..3 runs and now up in trip..never tried last time which makes the price tonight..this horse is better than a 53 level surely
 
The photo was more exciting than the race! Kempton is a minefield.



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If you look into the results called by this particular judge, you'll see that she is very fond of her "dead heats", even when it looks like a result could reasonably clearly be guessed at, if not called. She calls a photo whenever two horses are within half a length of each other, takes forever to call the result of the photo then takes so long to call the distances you'd think she'd forgotten to do so. Then you've got to hope that they're correct :)
 
The photo can't lie, though. Nowadays you can separate horses by pixels with the help of a magnifying glass - that's what Felix Wheeler employs, anyway! There is no guesswork involved and the resulting photo is posted up publicly for all to see. If there was any doubt formally raised by the trainer of the placed horse/s, it could be reviewed again and the decision reversed if necessary. You can't wing it any more with guessing, reasonably or not.

Who is this judge, by the way, Shadz? I'd love to hear what others think of her.
 
I guess the only variable could be in the interpretation of the person looking at it, Kri. Maybe it's just a coincidence - as you say, it's hard to think the result could be wrong given how good the photos are - that she calls so many dead heats. She's a new judge, name of Katie Boon, and if I didn't know better I'd have thought she was Ms Stickels in disguise!! :lol:
 
Ohhh, nooooo.... not Jane again! To be honest, Felix is fab - not only does he pilot his own horse round in amateur chases (rather stiffly, like a 19C cavalryman would!), but he's very approachable, too. He loves to demonstrate his skills with an almost night-time dead heat at Plumpton after a 3m chase - you'd think that in itself was impossible, but it's one of his fave pix to show to our tours. Then he has a ghastly shot of about six going for the gusto under lights at Wolverhampton, where he relies on the reverse-shot mirror, which as you know is on the winning post, to help split 1st from 2nd, then 3rd from 4th, right down to 6th. It's really an amazing piece of work, since of course it's often not just splitting 1st and 2nd in a bunched finish.

Two jobs (apart from being a jockey or a trainer) to swerve in racing, I think: Clerk of the Course, and Judge. Punters will always have them wrong, whatever they do!
 
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