Kevin McManus Grimes Hdl Tipperary

My pals are in the Armamon syndicates and don’t appear to be very confident, but that could be said every time one of theirs run!
 
Perpetual said:
My pals are in the Armamon syndicates and don’t appear to be very confident, but that could be said every time one of theirs run!
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He won it nicely giving the weight away. Don’t think Petit likes winning, so not rock solid form, but reckon he’ll pick up more grade 2/3’s on decent ground
 
Perpetual said:
He won it nicely giving the weight away. Don’t think Petit likes winning, so not rock solid form, but reckon he’ll pick up more grade 2/3’s on decent ground
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I'm not sure I agree with you Ben. I think that's a better run than his second to Saint Roi at the Festival. Saint Roi is interesting himself. and I've already had a speculative antepost on him at 33/1, but I've also just taken the 33/1 Aramon for the Champion Hurdle available with Skybet. If Saint Roi is 16-20/1 for the Champion Hurdle I'd expected Aramon to be 16/1 best price.

Also a literal reading of the form through Petit Mouchoir (yes I know:D), has Aramon beating Epatante and she's 4/1 with a shade of 7/2. It's hard to see Aramon running in a handicap again now so he surely only has one target at the Festival.

I'm surprised that Skybet haven't responded, and that the other mainstream bookies haven't priced him up.
 
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Yes. We talked about Aramon quite a bit following his run in the County when he should have been a lot closer to the winner giving away a lot of weight. I really should have stuck a saver on him today but might follow you in for the Champion. I suppose they might send him chasing though.
 
I think chasing is unlikely Maurice. I’m sure I remember them saying they would stick around over hurdles as they didn’t view him as a chaser. Archie may know from his connections to the horse?

I'm happy to take a punt at 33/1 anyway. It’s much too big on the form lines when compared to others in the market. I’ve also fully reviewed the race now as well, and combined with my Count Hurdle rating I believe it has substance. I’m sure a few will jump on me for saying this, but I have him ahead of Epatante by a couple of pounds.
 
Before her allowance. I have him on 164+. It makes him clear second best on my ratings, and he could conceivably be better yet given they said he wasn’t fully wound up.

The Galway Hurdle is now the plan off a massive weight. If the race has its usual make up I think he may well have too much to do off a revised mark against some well in plots, but it remains to be seen what runs of course. I won’t be disappointed if he doesn’t win at Galway but I’d expect him to run very well, before a break and then a Spring campaign.

Incidentally Sharjah went the exact same route two years ago. The comparisons are interesting especially when you consider their comparative ratings across the same plan. Ultimately though, I think Aramon is some way better than Sharjah and that one was second in the Champion Hurdle last season. What’s not to like about Aramon? I kind of feel I’m missing something given the lack of chatter and market reaction after yesterday’s performance, off the back of a huge run in the County off top weight when he ran into a horse ridiculously well in.
 
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My reservations are mostly that it’s summer jumping which is inevitably weaker, plus Petit Mouchoir just looks doesn’t look like he wants to get his head in front. But, I hope you’re right Paul and do know the Galway Hurdle is the definite target.

One other thing they’re discussing is exploiting his flat handicap mark, which is only 62!

One other observation is the ground definitely helped. He goes Ok on soft, but better ground suits him best for sure
 
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I've never had a direct connection with Aramon so it's all second-hand information and/or personal opinion.

I think it's common knowledge that he has to be delivered late and only seems to have the one bit of acceleration, which to be fair, can be devastating. Like Perpetual, I'd slightly question the form because of the relative closeness of moderate animals in 3rd and 4th. I suppose they'll have to push him up a few pounds but I'd imagine they're hoping for less than 160.

As far as the Galway Hurdle is concerned, you'd imagine that one or two would be better in but he's likely to go well. A horse that I used to be in, but no more, is Shanning. She started joint favourite off 136 in last year's race and should be on the same mark this time around.
 
Perpetual said:
My reservations are mostly that it’s summer jumping which is inevitably weaker, plus Petit Mouchoir just looks doesn’t look like he wants to get his head in front. But, I hope you’re right Paul and do know the Galway Hurdle is the definite target.

One other thing they’re discussing is exploiting his flat handicap mark, which is only 62!

One other observation is the ground definitely helped. He goes Ok on soft, but better ground suits him best for sure
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I hadn't noticed his flat handicap mark. I'm sure they'll exploit it at some point, probably sooner rather than later. It's too low to get in to one of the big end of season flat handicaps though, so I'd assume if the handicapper pushes him up too much from Friday they'll switch plans and try a flat campaign.
 
archie said:
I've never had a direct connection with Aramon so it's all second-hand information and/or personal opinion.

I think it's common knowledge that he has to be delivered late and only seems to have the one bit of acceleration, which to be fair, can be devastating. Like Perpetual, I'd slightly question the form because of the relative closeness of moderate animals in 3rd and 4th. I suppose they'll have to push him up a few pounds but I'd imagine they're hoping for less than 160.

As far as the Galway Hurdle is concerned, you'd imagine that one or two would be better in but he's likely to go well. A horse that I used to be in, but no more, is Shanning. She started joint favourite off 136 in last year's race and should be on the same mark this time around.
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Thanks Archie. Shanning would definitely be interesting, and most likely a nice price this time round.
 
The Grimes hurdle form isn't worth a bollocks. There was around 3 horses off (not including Wonder Laish) and Petit Mlouchoir really should have been given a more aggressive ride.
 
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